找回密码
 立即注册
首页 区块链新闻 查看内容
  • QQ空间

迦南上市后公司股价暴跌,与比特大陆陷入价格战

2019-12-18 14:12

加密货币挖掘电脑制造商迦南公司(ghana Inc.)首次公开募股(ipo)的时机可能已经选错了。该公司的估值为13亿美元。


11月21日,这家总部位于杭州的公司在美国发行了价值9000万美元的股票,自那以来的头17个交易日中,除了4个交易日外,股价全部下跌。自上周开始,它已经下跌了35%。


在加密货币行业,人们密切关注着迦南的表现。它是第一家公开出售股票的大型数据挖掘电脑制造商,其估值被许多投资者视为行业领头羊。尽管最大的加密货币比特币(bitcoin)的价格在过去一个月基本稳定,目前约为6500美元,但该公司股价仍大幅下跌。


研究公司TradeBlock在上周的一份报告中写道,比特币的股价正在下跌,“因为比特币矿工面临着一个充满挑战的环境”。CoinDesk联系了迦南的管理层,但截至发稿时没有收到任何回复。


业内高管表示,比特币开采电脑(俗称“rig”)的大型制造商销量大幅下滑。这是一个令人惊讶的发展,因为许多观察人士预测,在比特币每四年一次的开采回报减半(预计在今年5月实现)之前,会出现一轮疯狂的升级。当这种情况发生时,成功挖掘新数据块的奖励将减半。人们普遍预计,对于无法获得异常廉价电力的运营商来说,上一代的采矿设备将无利可图。


占主导地位的行业参与者Bitmain最近宣布了一系列销售激励措施,以转移积压或陈旧的库存,其中包括向愿意批量采购的买家承诺有限的价格保证,在某些情况下,还会根据利润分成协议,将二线采矿设备出租。

 

哈希率信息


它不会帮助投资者盲目:据数据提供商FactSet,股票没有吸引分析师覆盖从华尔街经纪公司,迫使交易商生成自己的模型基于公开的公司的盈利能力像hashrate crypto-industry指标——衡量工作的力的数量约确认新的数据块的比特币网络。


过去一周,比特币网络的哈希率平均约为每秒90万亿次。就在几个月前,它达到了每秒100次exahashes的历史最高水平,而在今年年初,它的平均速度是每秒40次exahashes。

 

 

区块软件解决方案(Blockware Solutions)的联合创始人兼首席执行官马特•德苏扎(Matt D’souza)表示,今年头8个月比特币的hashrate飙升,表明运营商正在升级到更快、更高效的机器,从而提高了网络的整体计算能力。


即使在6月底比特币价格达到约1.3万美元的峰值后,这种升级仍持续了几个月。


但如今,迪索萨表示,矿商们在看到比特币价格可能开始上涨的迹象之前,在某种程度上变得更不愿意投资于新机器。从最近hashrate的增长中可以明显看出这一点。


德索萨说:“他们需要确信,他们处在一个长期盈利的环境中。”“这就是为什么有些人已经停止购买。”

 

降价


Bitmain成功地在加密行业建立起了主导市场份额,部分原因是其S9 Antminers非常受欢迎。但德索萨说,这些手机现在有过时的风险,最近几个月Bitmain大幅下调了部分畅销机型的价格。


私营加密货币采矿公司Coinmint LLC的首席财务官迈克•马洛尼(Mike Maloney)表示,这些制造商的最终目标是赢得越来越多的大型矿商的忠诚,这些矿商可以批量采购钻机,并就廉价电力合同进行谈判。


“这是我们将在比特币挖掘中看到的一种趋势,”马宏升在电话采访中说。“Bitmain领先。”


迦南公司计划在明年初发布下一代钻机AvalonMiner 11系列。但D 'Souza说,这款机器的节能效率预计将低于已经上市的Bitmain S17+机型。


根据Bitmain的网站,其价格最高的S17+型号在7天内发货,售价1,930美元,每秒可产生73兆字节(万亿次操作),能源效率为每兆字节40焦耳。


根据迦南公司的网站,其最昂贵的型号是“二月批次”的AvalonMiner A1166-68T机器,价格为1978美元,每秒提供68兆字节,效率为47焦耳每兆字节。在这种情况下,更高的效率等级更糟糕,因为它表示更多的电力使用,因此更高的运行成本。

“他们的处境很艰难,”D 'Souza这样评价迦南。“他们需要现金,因为他们需要升级硬件,保持与Bitmain的竞争力。”

 

风险被披露


根据提交给美国证券交易委员会(U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission,简称sec)的招股说明书,该公司首席执行长兼董事长张南能(Nangeng Zhang)领导并控制着公司。绰号“南瓜”的他于2010年获得北航软件工程硕士学位,从2010年9月到2013年10月在北航攻读博士学位。


根据招股说明书,早在2013年,张和他的团队就率先使用了一种名为“专用集成电路”(asic)的先进微芯片来挖掘加密货币。


文件显示,此次发行的结构是,张勇将持有15%的流通股,但由于他拥有3.566亿股公司B类股的独家所有权,他将保留约73%的投票权。IPO对他所持股份的账面价值超过2.13亿美元,但股价暴跌已使这一数字减少了约9,600万美元。


就在迦南为11月的IPO做准备的同时,该公司今年的收入在下降,成本在增加:该公司2019年前9个月的收入只有1.342亿美元,低于2018年全年的3.785亿美元;今年前9个月的运营成本从去年全年的5,250万美元升至5,750万美元。


监管备案文件显示,最初被迦南银行聘请来牵头此次美国IPO的投资银行瑞信(Credit Suisse)在股票发售前几周退出了承销团队。根据11月20日的招股说明书,花旗牵头剩下的七家承销公司,其中还包括专注于加密货币的金融公司银河数码(Galaxy Digital)。


文件显示,在出售前的最后几周,交易规模也从最初的最高目标4亿美元降了下来。


该公司在招股说明书中披露,计划将发行股票所得用于与新型电脑芯片相关的研发,并在全球范围内扩展其人工智能和区块链业务,“进行战略投资,并在海外设立办事处”。


值得赞扬的是,该公司还披露了市场疲软时的风险。招股说明书称:“由于矿商的经济回报下降或比特币开采机的定价竞争,导致库存过剩、库存降价、品牌形象恶化和利润率下降,这些都可能对我们的业务、财务状况和经营成果产生重大而不利的影响。”


分析比特币开采的计算机股票仍然是一种模糊的做法。就像石油钻机和采矿推土机的制造商一样,它们也面临着大宗商品周期的起起伏伏。更确切地说,是加密货币周期。

 

Cryptocurrency mining computer-maker Canaan Inc. may have picked the worst time for its initial public stock offering, which valued the company at $1.3 billion.

The stock price has declined in all but four of the first 17 trading sessions since the Hangzhou-based company’s Nov. 21 sale of $90 million of U.S. shares. It's down 35 percent since the start of last week.

Canaan’s performance is being closely monitored in the cryptocurrency industry. It was the first big maker of data-mining computers to sell shares publicly and its valuation serves many investors as a sector bellwether. The shares have tumbled even as the price of bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, has been mostly stable over the past month, currently around $6,500.

Its stock price drop is taking place “as bitcoin miners face a challenging environment,” wrote research firm TradeBlock in a report last week. CoinDesk reached out to Canaan’s management but no response was received as of press time.

Industry executives say the big makers of bitcoin-mining computers, colloquially known as “rigs,” are in a sales slump. That’s a surprising development since many observers predicted a frenzy of upgrades ahead of bitcoin’s once-every-four-years mining-reward halving, expected in May. When that happens, the reward for successfully mining a new block of data will get cut in half. It’s widely expected that prior-generation mining rigs will become unprofitable for operators who don’t have access to unusually cheap electricity. 

Bitmain, the dominant industry player, recently announced a series of sales incentives to move backlogged or stale inventory, including promising limited price guarantees to buyers willing to commit to bulk purchases and in some cases renting out second-tier mining rigs under profit-sharing agreements.  

Hashing out information on their own

It doesn’t help that investors are flying blind: According to the data provider FactSet, the stock has attracted no analyst coverage from Wall Street brokerage firms, forcing traders to generate their own models of the company’s profitability based on publicly available crypto-industry metrics like hashrate – a gauge of the amount of computer-processing power working to confirm new data blocks on the bitcoin network.

Over the past week, the bitcoin network’s hashrate has averaged about 90 quintillion operations, or exahashes, per second. Just a couple months ago, it hit an all-time-high around 100 exahashes per second, after averaging about 40 exahashes per second at the start of the year. 

 

Matt D’Souza, co-founder and CEO of Blockware Solutions, which brokers mining-rig purchases, says that the surge in bitcoin’s hashrate during the first eight months of the year was a sign that operators were upgrading to faster, more efficient machines – leading to an increase in the network’s collective computing power. 

The upgrades continued for several months even after bitcoin’s price peaked around $13,000 in late June.   

But now, D’Souza says, miners are becoming somewhat more reluctant to invest in new machines until they see signs that bitcoin prices might start rising. That’s evident from the recent stall-out in the hashrate’s growth.

“They need to be assured that they're in an environment for long-term profitability,” D’Souza said. “That's why some of these guys have stopped buying.”

Price cuts

Bitmain managed to build a dominant market share in the crypto industry, partly thanks to the runaway popularity of its S9 Antminers. But those are now at risk of becoming obsolete, and in recent months Bitmain has cut prices steeply on some of its top-selling models, D’Souza said.  

Mike Maloney, chief financial officer at Coinmint LLC, a private cryptocurrency mining firm, says that the ultimate prize for these manufacturers is winning the loyalty of a growing cadre of large-scale miners who can shop for rigs in bulk and negotiate contracts for cheap electricity. 

“This is a trend that we're going to be seeing in bitcoin mining,” Maloney said in a phone interview. “Bitmain is taking the lead.”

Canaan has scheduled the release of its next-generation rig, the AvalonMiner 11 series, for early next year. But that machine is expected to be less power-efficient than the Bitmain S17+ model, which is already out, said D’Souza. 

According to Bitmain’s website, its top-priced S17+ model, which ships in seven days for $1,930, can produce 73 terahashes (trillion operations) per second, at a power efficiency of 40 joules per terahash. 

Canaan’s top-priced model, according to its website, is the “February batch” of the AvalonMiner A1166-68T machine for $1,978, providing 68 terahashes per second at an efficiency of 47 joules per terahash. In this case, a higher efficiency rating is worse, because it indicates more power usage and thus a higher operating cost.  

“They're in a tough position,” D’Souza said of Canaan. “They need cash and that's because they need to upgrade their hardware and stay competitive with Bitmain.” 

The risks were disclosed

Canaan is led and controlled by its CEO and chairman, Nangeng Zhang, who was 36 at the time of the IPO, according to an offering prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Nicknamed "Pumpkin," he received a master’s degree in software engineering from Beihang University in 2010, and from September 2010 through October 2013 he was pursuing a Ph.D. degree at the Chinese university.

As early as 2013, Zhang and his team were pioneers in the use of an advanced type of microchip known as application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICS, to mine for cryptocurrencies, according to the prospectus. 

The offering was structured so that Zhang would own 15 percent of the total shares outstanding but retains about 73 percent of voting rights through his sole ownership of 356.6 million of the company’s class B shares, according to the filing. The IPO valued his stake on paper at more than $213 million, but the share-price slump has already cut that figure by about $96 million.  

Even as Canaan prepared for the November IPO, its revenue this year was declining, and its costs were expanding: The company’s revenue during the first nine months of 2019 was just $134.2 million, down from $378.5 million during all of 2018; operating costs rose to $57.5 million during the first nine months of this year, from $52.5 million for all of last year. 

The investment bank Credit Suisse, initially hired by Canaan to lead the U.S. IPO, dropped off of the underwriting team just weeks before the share sale, regulatory filings show. According to a Nov. 20 prospectus, Citigroup led the remaining team of seven underwriting firms, which also included the cryptocurrency-focused financial firm Galaxy Digital. 

According to the filings, the deal was also downsized in the final weeks before the sale from an initial maximum target of $400 million. 

Canaan disclosed in the prospectus that it planned to use the proceeds from the stock offering for research and development related to new computer chips and to expand its artificial-intelligence and blockchain business globally, “making strategic investments and establishing overseas offices.” 

To its credit, the company also disclosed the risks when the market turns anemic. “Excess inventories, inventory markdowns, brand-image deterioration and margin squeeze caused by declining economic returns for miners or pricing competition for our bitcoin-mining machines could all have a material and adverse impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations,” according to the prospectus. 

Analyzing bitcoin-mining computer stocks remains a murky practice. Just like manufacturers of oil rigs and mining bulldozers, they face the ups and downs of commodity cycles. Or rather, cryptocurrency cycles. 

原作者: Bradley Keoun 来自: coindesk