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Chief economists optimistic about Chinese economy in 2020

2020-1-3 16:14

Accelerating changes around the world may have a profound influence on the Chinese economy, but 2020 will still be a year full of highlights for China, said chief experts from multiple organizations during a recent interview with China News Agency.

 

(Photo/Xinhua)

 

Increasing partial risks will be a major feature of the coming year, and will exert profound impacts on the Chinese economy in 2020, experts explained.

 

According to Lu Ting, chief economist with the financial services company Nomura Securities, China may face a more complex international environment in the coming year, including whether trade talks with the US will achieve practical progress, as well as the US election. Therefore, he believes that China may face a dip in exports in 2020, and a sustained low in the manufacturing sector.

 

However, chief researcher Wen Bin of China Minsheng Bank stressed that the basic trend of steady long-term growth for China's economy remains unchanged thanks to the country's institutional advantages, material basis, market advantages, domestic demand and human resources.

 

The structural downturn is likely to continue in 2020, said Zhu Haibin, Chief China Economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. However, in his opinion, periodical factors will gain a rise, and real estate investment will also maintain strong resilience in the first half of 2020.

 

Ding Shuang, chief economist of Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that China's investment growth in infrastructure might see a small bounce due to the incentive of financial policies. He also pointed out that the pickup of social financing and general credit in 2019 had created a favorable environment for credit in 2020.

 

Chief economists believe that the most important thing for the Chinese economy is to prepare for the prevention of and solution to financial risks.

 

To this end, it is essential to maintain the stability of financial organizations, as well as capital mobility, said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at China's State Information Center, adding that China should also enhance supply-side structural reform to support the development of its real economy.

 

近日,多家机构的首席专家在接受中新社采访时表示,全球变化加速可能对中国经济产生深远影响,但2020年仍将是中国充满亮点的一年。


专家解释说,增加部分风险将是明年的一个主要特征,并将对2020年的中国经济产生深远影响。


金融服务公司野村证券(Nomura Securities)首席经济学家陆挺表示,未来一年,中国可能面临更复杂的国际环境,包括与美国的贸易谈判是否会取得实际进展,以及美国大选。因此,他认为中国可能在2020年面临出口下降和制造业持续低迷的局面。


然而,中国民生银行首席研究员温斌强调,由于国家的制度优势、物质基础、市场优势、内需和人力资源,中国经济长期稳定增长的基本趋势没有改变。


摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)首席中国经济学家朱海滨表示,结构性低迷可能会在2020年持续,但他认为,周期性因素将会上升,房地产投资在2020年上半年也将保持强劲的弹性。


渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽指出,由于金融政策的刺激,中国基础设施投资增长可能出现小幅反弹。他还指出,2019年社会融资和一般信贷的回升,为2020年创造了良好的信贷环境。


首席经济学家认为,中国经济最重要的是做好防范和化解金融风险的准备。


中国国家信息中心首席经济学家朱保良表示,为此,保持金融机构的稳定和资本流动至关重要。他补充说,中国还应该加强供给侧结构性改革,以支持实体经济的发展。

来自: people's daily