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多年高速增长终结?美国页岩油产业因这件事“踩刹车”

2020-1-5 16:44

 

      美国石油产量增长今年将大幅放缓,这个全球最大产油国的产量可能趋于稳定,这暗示活跃的页岩油行业将迎来一个自我克制的全新时代。

  据路透社1月2日报道,美国页岩油井普遍出现支出削减和产量下降,意味着美国的石油产量增速预计将较2019年放缓。2019年美国国内石油产量高于1300万桶/日。一些分析师预计2020年产量增速可能放缓至仅10万桶/日。

  报道称,过去10年,页岩油革命促使美国成为全球首屈一指的原油生产国及能源出口大国。但这场革命并未推动股价上涨。标普500指数能源板块在这10年中涨幅只有区区6%,远远不及整体股市180%的回报率。

  长达10年的石油产业扩张并没有提振获利,令投资者大感失望。石油输出国组织于2014年发动价格战,美国原油价格一度跌破每桶30美元(1美元约合6.97元人民币),页岩油产业利润遭到挤压。

  产量暂时放缓,但因许多公司节本增效,该行业在本世纪10年代的最后阶段提速。现在随着投资者变得悲观起来,哪怕油价上涨,页岩油行业也不再认为采油一定稳赚不赔。

  “投资者的鼓点声一直嘹亮且整齐划一。”Parsley Energy首席执行官马特·加拉格说。他说,公司明年的支出将减少约15%,即便油价上涨公司也不会提高支出,而是拿更高的回报去偿还债务。

  报道称,分析师目前预期2020年美国原油均价在每桶约58美元,这比当前油价略微低一些。但分析师指出,由于投资回报的压力,即使2020年油价维持高于60美元,也不会刺激另一波产量喷发。

  “我们认为(快速增长)差不多结束了。”英国IHS马基特公司能源分析师拉乌尔·勒布朗称。由于从页岩取得的石油产出会迅速下滑,业者需要持续进行昂贵的钻采活动,才能维持产量水位稳定。

 

U.S. oil production growth is set to slow sharply this year as output from the world's largest producer stabilises, suggesting a new era of self-restraint for the buoyant shale oil industry.


U.S. oil production is expected to grow more slowly than it did in 2019 as spending cuts and production declines from shale Wells spread across the country. Us domestic oil production in 2019 was more than 13m b/d. Some analysts expect production growth to slow to as little as 100,000 b/d in 2020.


Over the past decade, the shale oil revolution has propelled the us to become the world's leading producer of crude oil and exporter of energy, the report said. But the revolution has not helped share prices. The energy sector of the s&p 500 is up just 6% over the decade, far less than the 180% return of the broader stock market.


Investors were disappointed that a decade of expansion had failed to boost profits. The organization of the petroleum exporting countries launched a price war in 2014, with the price of American crude briefly dropping below $30 a barrel, squeezing profits in the shale oil industry.


Production slowed temporarily but accelerated in the last phase of the decade as many companies cut costs and increased efficiency. Now, as investors become more pessimistic, the shale oil industry is no longer betting that production will be guaranteed even if prices rise.


"The drumbeat of investors has been loud and consistent." "Said matt gallagher, chief executive of Parsley Energy. He said the company would reduce its spending by about 15% next year, and that even with higher oil prices, it wouldn't increase its spending, instead paying down debt with higher returns.


Analysts now expect U.S. crude to average about $58 a barrel in 2020, which is slightly lower than current prices, the report said. But analysts point out that even if prices stay above $60 in 2020, they will not spur another burst of production because of the pressure on investment returns.


"We think [rapid growth] is almost over." Raoul leblanc is an energy analyst at IHS markit. Because oil production from shale falls rapidly, operators need to continue expensive drilling to keep production levels stable.

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