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中东紧张局势升级 国际油价或受冲击

2020-1-5 16:59

 

      美国空袭巴格达机场致伊朗高级将领苏莱马尼死亡的事件也引发了国际油价的波动。事发当天的3日,纽约油价和布伦特油价盘中一度分别上涨4.75%和4.95%,布伦特油价距离每桶70美元的整数关口仅一步之遥。分析人士表示,这一事件引发的中东地缘政治紧张可能给2020年国际石油市场造成冲击。

 

  市场分析人士认为,美国这一袭击事件可能挑起伊朗和伊拉克国内支持伊朗势力的严重报复,可能会导致海湾地区和中东其他地区石油基础设施受损。如果中东局势恶化,石油供应受严重影响,会使原油价格大幅上涨,给经济和金融市场带来冲击。同时,主要产油国减产计划也将在本月开始落实,这也将支撑油价上涨。市场应对油价可能发生的大幅变化作好准备。 

 

  库存充足 国际油价难长期居高 

 

  不过,分析人士同时表示,在当前石油库存充足、产能富余的供需格局下,地缘政治紧张难以令油价持续居于高位。分析人士说,目前,国际石油市场产能充足,石油输出国组织(欧佩克)和俄罗斯均有富余产能。此外,由于美国和挪威等产油国供应增长,预计2020年尤其是上半年会出现每日30万桶的供应过剩。因而,尽管目前中东紧张局势很可能使国际油价出现大的风险溢价,但此类事件对市场大范围的影响均比较短暂。

A U.S. airstrike on a Baghdad airport that killed Iran's top general, ayatollah ali suleimani, also triggered price volatility. On the third day of the crisis, oil prices in New York and brent rose as much as 4.75 per cent and 4.95 per cent, respectively, with brent just shy of the round mark of $70 a barrel. Analysts said geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused by the incident could have an impact on international oil markets in 2020.


Market analysts believe the U.S. attack could provoke serious retaliation from Iran and Iraq for its support of Iranian forces, potentially damaging oil infrastructure in the gulf and elsewhere in the Middle East. If the situation in the Middle East worsens and oil supplies are severely affected, the price of crude oil could rise sharply, sending shock waves through the economy and financial markets. Meanwhile, oil prices will also be supported by plans by major oil producers to cut output starting this month. The market is braced for a possible sharp change in oil prices.


Adequate inventories of international oil prices can not stay high for a long time


However, analysts also said geopolitical tensions were unlikely to keep prices high in the current supply and demand landscape of ample oil stocks and spare capacity. Analysts say the international oil market is currently full of capacity, with the organization of the petroleum exporting countries (Opec) and Russia both having excess capacity. In addition, there is expected to be a supply glut of 300,000 b/d in 2020, particularly in the first half of the year, due to increased supply from producers such as the us and Norway. Thus, while the current tensions in the Middle East are likely to push international oil prices into a large risk premium, the broader market impact of such events is short-lived.

 

来自: 央视新闻