找回密码
 立即注册
首页 全球财经资讯 查看内容
  • QQ空间

自从Soleimani被杀以来,投资者在首个交易时段抛售了沙特阿美及中东股票

2020-1-6 17:33

 

美国击毙伊朗最高军事指挥官的消息在中东市场引起反响,导致股市下跌,并为本周可能出现的动荡定下了基调。


亚洲所有主要股指周日均出现下跌。科威特股市下跌超过4%,抵消了去年使其成为该地区最佳股市的涨势。沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司股价下跌,该国Tadawul All股票指数下跌2.5%。埃及的EGX30指数下跌4.4%,创下去年9月以来的最大跌幅,阿联酋、卡塔尔、巴林、以色列和阿曼的股市也出现下跌。


伊朗将军索莱马尼上星期在伊拉克被美国总统川普下令发动的一次无人机袭击打死后,地缘政治风险加剧。伊朗总统鲁哈尼誓言要进行报复。川普星期六晚间表示,美国已经确定了52个伊朗地点,如果德黑兰采取报复行动,这些地点将受到“非常严重”的打击。


“投资者希望降低中东和北非地缘政治的紧张局势在2020年他们的希望破灭了,第二天”说,穆罕默德·阿里亚首席战略官阿布扎比Al阿布扎比资本有限公司”2020年仍将是高的地缘政治紧张局势。”

 

再次发生


全球市场周五转差,因Soleimani之死引发投资者以风险较高的资产为代价,转向避险资产。摩根士丹利资本国际公司(MSCI Inc.)新兴市场股票指数创下一个多月来最大跌幅。布伦特(Brent)原油价格升至每桶68.60美元,为去年9月中旬以来的最高水平,而在动荡的市场中作为投资者避风港的黄金价格几乎达到了6年高点。


沙特阿拉伯债务违约保险成本飙升。尽管穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody 's Investors Service)对印尼信用违约互换(cds)的评级比印尼低了4个等级,但该国5年期信用违约互换(cds)目前的价格仍比印尼高,这是近两年来的首次。沙特阿拉伯、阿布扎比、黎巴嫩和伊拉克的债券收益率均有所攀升。


沙特阿美股价可能面临不到一个月前首次公开发行(ipo)以来的最大考验。该股周日下跌1.7%,至34.55里亚尔,为去年12月11日上市以来的最低收盘水平。


乐观主义者将指出,面对政治紧张局势,中东市场具有弹性。9月份,在沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Aramco)设施遭到无人机袭击后,市场波动性大幅上升,突显出沙特石油设施的脆弱性。伊朗支持的也门胡塞叛军过去曾多次对沙特目标发动无人机袭击,并声称对此次袭击负责。


就在几个月前,霍尔木兹海峡或附近发生了一连串针对油轮的袭击,美国和沙特政府将其归咎于伊朗。


瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse AG)驻迪拜的中东研究主管伊克巴尔(Fahd Iqbal)说,最新一轮抛售的规模将取决于伊朗是否、如何以及何时对索莱马尼被杀做出回应。


“将会有一种紧张和观望的感觉,”他在周日接受彭博电视台(Bloomberg Television)采访时表示。“现在还不知道伊朗会做什么,也不知道报复会有多严重。”

 

 

The U.S. killing of Iran’s most senior military commander reverberated through Middle Eastern markets, sending stocks into retreat and setting the tone for what’s likely to be a volatile week.

 

All the region’s major equity gauges fell on Sunday. Kuwait’s dropped more than 4%, trimming a rally that made it the best market in the region last year. Saudi Aramco slumped as the country’s Tadawul All Share Index lost as much 2.5%. Egypt’s EGX30 gauge fell 4.4%, the most since September, and stocks in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Israel and Oman also weakened.

 

 

 

Geopolitical risks flared after Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed in Iraq last week in a drone attack ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani vowed revenge, while Trump said late Saturday the U.S. had identified 52 Iranian sites that would be hit “very hard” if Tehran retaliated.

 

“Investors who were hoping for lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East and North Africa in 2020 got their hopes dashed on the second day of the year,” said Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief strategy officer at Abu Dhabi-based Al Dhabi Capital Ltd. “2020 will continue to be a year of high geopolitical tensions.”

 

Happening Again

 

Global markets turned sour Friday as Soleimani’s death triggered a flight to havens at the expense of riskier assets. MSCI Inc.’s index of emerging-market stocks fell the most in more than a month. Brent crude rose to $68.60 a barrel, its highest level since mid-September, and gold, a haven for investors in rocky markets, almost reached a six-year high.

 

The cost of insuring Saudi Arabia’s debt against default spiked. The country’s five-year credit default swaps are now more expensive than Indonesia’s for the first time in almost two years, even though Moody’s Investors Service rates the latter four levels lower. Yields on the bonds of Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Lebanon and Iraq all climbed.

 

Aramco shares may be in the grips of their biggest test since the initial public offering less than a month ago. The stock dropped 1.7% Sunday to 34.55 riyals, their lowest closing level since the Dec. 11 listing.

 

Optimists will point to the resilience of Middle Eastern markets in the face of political tension. Volatility surged in September after drone strikes against Aramco facilities highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s oil installations. Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who’ve launched several drone attacks on Saudi targets in the past, claimed responsibility.

 

 

That came just a few months after a spate of attacks on oil tankers in or near the Strait of Hormuz, for which the U.S. and Saudi governments blamed Iran.

 

The extent of the latest sell-off will depend on if, how and when Iran responds to Soleimani’s killing, said Fahd Iqbal, Credit Suisse AG’s Dubai-based head of Middle East Research.


“There will be a sense of nervousness and wait-and-see,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Sunday. “There is a lack of knowing what Iran is going to do, or how severe any kind of retaliation will be, if there is any.”

原作者: Filipe Pacheco 来自: fortune