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中美签署第一阶段交易的不确定性仍然存在

2020-1-7 12:38

 

美国单方面声明,媒体猜测并非最终,除非得到中国证实。


中国分析人士周一表示,中美何时签署第一阶段贸易协定仍存在不确定性,因为最终细节仍有待敲定,而且出现了其他复杂因素,比如美国和伊朗之间不断升级的冲突。


分析人士指出,在得到中国官员确认之前,美国官员单方面宣布的消息,以及媒体对签字仪式日期和其他细节的猜测,不应被视为最终决定。


自中美两国官员就第一阶段贸易协定的文本达成一致以来,人们一直在猜测,签署这一广受期待的协议的时间。《南华早报》周日报道称,中国贸易代表团将于1月13日前往华盛顿签署该协议。《南华早报》上周报道称,行程安排在周六。


美国官员还单方面宣布了签字仪式的不同日期。美国贸易代表罗伯特•莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)此前曾表示,该协议可能在1月的第一周签署。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周表示,该协议将于1月15日在白宫签署。


最后的日期


“这并不奇怪,因为我们总是急于单方面发布信息,因为它是渴望获得一些点,但没有什么是最终的,除非中国也使得相同的声明,“他Weiwen,前高级贸易官员和行政会议成员的中国对世界贸易组织研究社会,周一告诉《环球时报》。


但中国官员既没有证实特朗普的推文,也没有证实《南华早报》的报道。周五,当被问及特朗普的推文时,中国外交部发言人耿爽拒绝置评,并将问题转给了商务部。商务部坚称,双方仍在就该交易进行法律和翻译审查。


他指出,中国不会受美国单方面宣布或媒体猜测的影响。他表示:“中国将在贸易谈判中按照自己的步伐前进,一如既往。”他补充称,美国倾向于过早地、有选择地披露有利于自己的信息,包括未签署协议的一些内容。


自宣布协议第一阶段的文本协议,美国官员已经发布了交易的一些要点,包括中国购买美国的商品,而中国官员在发布的内容仍保持谨慎交易,坚称它将只在协议签署后发布。


“我认为第一阶段贸易协定并不容易,所以重要的是我们关注交易的实现,“部长魏建国前中国商务部副部长周一告诉《环球时报》,他指出,谨慎是必要的在第一阶段的签署协议。


不断上升的并发症


分析人士表示,除了具体日期的不确定性外,第一阶段贸易协定的签署也越来越复杂,比如美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势不断升级,这可能会使签署贸易协定的日程变得复杂。


中国国际贸易协会专家委员会副主席李勇周一告诉《环球时报》:“地缘政治冲突可能会对贸易谈判产生一些影响。”他指出,美国官员可能忙于应对“形势”。


此外,即便在第一阶段协议的文本达成一致之后,美国仍在继续加剧技术方面的紧张局势。美国周一出台新规,将限制包括人工智能软件在内的某些技术向中国出口。


然而,尽管不确定性,签署的贸易协议之一可能是,谈判第二阶段协议可能开始之后不久,当双方出现渴望继续会谈以解决长期贸易冲突仍然是一个主要拖累全球经济增长,中国分析人士表示。

 

US’ unilateral statement, media speculation not final unless confirmed by China: analyst

There is still uncertainty regarding when China and the US will sign the phase one trade agreement as final details remain to be worked out and other complicating factors have arisen, such as the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, Chinese analysts said on Monday.

Unilateral announcements from US officials and media speculation about the date and other details about the signing ceremony should not be taken as final until they are confirmed by Chinese officials, the analysts noted.

Since Chinese and US officials agreed on the text of the phase one trade agreement, there has been much speculation about the time for signing the widely anticipated deal. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Sunday that China's trade delegation will travel to Washington on January 13 to sign the deal. The SCMP last week reported that the trip was scheduled for Saturday.

US officials have also been unilaterally announcing different dates for the signing ceremony. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer previously suggested the deal could be signed in the first week of January. US President Donald Trump last week said that the deal would be signed on January 15 at the White House.

No final date

"This is nothing strange because the US has always been rushing to unilaterally release information because it is anxious to gain some points, but nothing is final unless China also makes the same announcement," He Weiwen, a former senior trade official and an executive council member of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies, told the Global Times on Monday.

But Chinese officials have not confirmed either Trump's tweet or the SCMP's report. Asked about Trump's tweet on Friday, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, declined to comment and referred questions to the Commerce Ministry, which had maintained that both sides were still working on legal and translation reviews of the deal.

He noted that China would not be swayed by unilateral announcements from the US or media speculation. "China will move forward at its own pace in the trade talks, as it has always done," he said, adding that the US has a tendency to prematurely and selectively disclose information to its favor, including some content of the unsigned agreement.

Since announcing the agreement on the text of the phase one deal, US officials have released some points of the deal, including China's purchase of US goods, while Chinese officials remained cautious in releasing the content of the deal, insisting that it will be released only after the deal is signed.

"I think the phase one trade agreement did not come easily, so it's important that we focus on implementation of the deal," Wei Jianguo, a former Chinese vice commerce minister, told the Global Times on Monday, noting that caution is necessary prior to the signing of the phase one deal.

Rising complication

Apart from the uncertainty over the specific date, there are also increasing complications for the signing of the phase one trade agreement, such as rising tensions between the US and Iran, which could complicate scheduling for the signing of the trade agreement, analysts said.

"Geopolitical flare-ups might have some impact on the trade negotiations," Li Yong, a deputy chairman of the expert committee of the China Association of International Trade, told the Global Times on Monday. He noted that US officials could be preoccupied in dealing with "the situation."

Also, even after the agreement on the text of the phase one deal, the US has continued to escalate tensions over technology. The US on Monday put in place new rules that would restrict exports of certain technology to China, including artificial intelligence software.

However, despite the uncertainty, the trade one deal is likely to be signed soon and talks over a second phase agreement could commence shortly thereafter, as both sides appear eager to continue talks to resolve the long-running trade conflict that remains a major drag on global economic growth, Chinese analysts said. 

原作者: Wang Cong 来自: Globe Times