找回密码
 立即注册
首页 Financial China 查看内容
  • QQ空间

The Chinese academy of sciences forecast that China's GDP will grow by around 6. ...

2020-1-8 17:03

China new network on January 9 The 2019 China economic forecast conference was held at the institute of mathematics and systems sciences, Chinese academy of sciences, on Thursday. At the conference, the center released its annual forecasts for China's economic growth, investment, consumption, imports and exports, domestic and international commodity prices, real estate, and grain output in 2019.


China's economy will grow steadily in 2019, with annual GDP growth expected to be around 6.3 percent, down about 0.3 percentage points from 2018. The added value of China's primary industry is expected to grow by 3.6%, secondary by 5.3% and tertiary by 7.5% in 2019. Consumption, investment and net exports contributed 4.7, 1.9 and -0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively. In 2019, China's economic growth is expected to slow down, stabilize and make steady progress, with growth of around 6.3% in the first quarter, around 6.2% in the second and third quarters, and around 6.4% in the fourth quarter.


It is expected that the growth rate of fixed asset investment will remain at around 6% for the whole year of 2019, and that final consumption will continue to grow, with a nominal growth rate of about 8.4% year on year. China's total imports and exports are estimated to be 5.1 trillion us dollars in 2019, up about 7.9% year on year. Exports were 2.7 trillion us dollars, up about 6.6% year on year, while imports were 2.4 trillion us dollars, up about 9.4% year on year. The trade surplus, at about $305bn, has narrowed further than in 2018. It is estimated that China has a trade surplus in goods of us $357.91 billion and a deficit in services of us $339.67 billion in its balance of international payments. The current account balance is the same as that of 2018, and the balance of international payments is basically in balance. In 2019, CPI is expected to rise by about 2.0%, PPI by 1.0% and PPIRM by 1.4%. There is some deflation pressure in 2019.


The RJ/CRB commodity futures index is expected to average 184 points in 2019, down about 5% year on year. WTI is expected to average about $55 a barrel, down about 15% from its 2018 average. LME three-month copper futures are also expected to fall slightly. The average price of commercial housing is expected to be 9,272 yuan per square meter in 2019, up 6.7% year on year and down 3.4 percentage points from 2018. In the absence of significant adjustment in the regulation policies, the growth rate of completed investment in real estate development in 2019 and the growth rate of newly started area are expected to be lower than that in 2018. The growth rate of commercial housing sales is basically the same as that of 2018, and the growth rate of sales will decline. If the weather is normal and there is no major natural disaster, and China's grain import quota does not increase significantly, the annual grain output is expected to be flat and slightly increased in 2019, including the summer grain and autumn grain output will be flat and slightly increased. Cotton production is expected to increase in 2019, while oil production is expected to remain flat. The per capita disposable income of rural residents is expected to reach 15,885 yuan in 2019, with an actual growth rate of about 6.4 percent. It is expected that the industrial added value above designated size will continue to slow down in 2019, with a cumulative growth rate of about 6.0% year on year and a decline of 0.3 percentage points year on year, showing a steady trend of slowing down. It is estimated that in 2019, the annual LPI of China's logistics industry will average 55%, and the growth rate of total social logistics will be about 10.0%. China's total water demand is expected to reach 606.41 billion cubic meters in 2019, a slight increase over 2018.

 

中新网1月9日电 8日,中国科学院预测科学研究中心(以下简称预测中心)“2019年中国经济预测发布会”在中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院举行。发布会上,预测中心发布了对2019年中国经济增长、投资、消费、进出口、国内物价和国际大宗商品价格、房地产、粮食产量等方面的年度预测值。

2019年中国经济将平稳增长,预计全年GDP增速为6.3%左右,增速较2018年下降约0.3个百分点。预计2019年中国第一产业增加值增速为3.6%,第二产业为5.3%,第三产业为7.5%。消费、投资和净出口对GDP增速的拉动分别为4.7、1.9和-0.3个百分点。预计2019年中国经济增长呈现前降后稳、稳中有进趋势,一季度增速为6.3%左右,二、三季度的为6.2%左右,四季度的为6.4%左右。

预计2019年全年固定资产投资增速维持在6%左右,最终消费将保持持续增长趋势,同比名义增速约为8.4%。预计2019年中国进出口总额约为5.1万亿美元,同比增长约7.9%;其中,出口额约为2.7万亿美元,同比增长约6.6%,进口额约为2.4万亿美元,同比增长约9.4%;贸易顺差约为3050亿美元,顺差较2018年进一步收窄。预计中国国际收支平衡表中货物贸易顺差3579.1亿美元,服务贸易逆差3396.7亿美元,经常账户差额与2018年持平,国际收支处于基本平衡状态。预计2019年CPI全年上涨约为2.0%,PPI和PPIRM全年分别上涨1.0%和1.4%,2019年存在一定的通货紧缩压力。

预计2019年RJ/CRB商品期货价格指数均值跌至184点左右,同比下跌约5%;WTI原油均价预计约为55美元/桶,较2018年均价下跌约15%;LME 3个月铜期货均价也将小幅下跌。预计2019年全国商品房销售均价约为9272元/平方米,同比上涨6.7%,较2018年同比下降3.4个百分点。在调控政策不出现明显调整的情况下,预计2019年房地产开发完成投资额增速和新开工面积增速都较2018年有所回落。商品房销售面积增速同2018年基本持平,销售额增速将有所回落。如果天气正常、不出现大的自然灾害,且中国粮食进口配额不出现大幅提高的情况下,预计2019年全年粮食产量持平略增,其中夏粮、秋粮产量均将持平略增。预计2019年棉花产量将增加,油料产量将持平略增。预计2019年中国农村居民人均可支配收入将达到15885元,实际增长速度为6.4%左右。预计2019年规模以上工业增加值将延续放缓的态势,累计同比增速为6.0%左右,同比下降0.3个百分点,呈现稳中趋缓的态势。预计2019年中国物流业景气指数LPI全年平均为55%,社会物流总额增速约为10.0%。预计2019年中国需水总量约为6064.1亿立方米,比2018年略有增加。

来自: 中国新闻网