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Bullish trend expected for A-share market

2020-1-9 14:59

 

Fund managers optimistic on increased participation by international investors 

China's A-share market is expected to generate higher-than-expected profits and see increased participation from foreign investors this year, as economic growth stabilizes in the country through further restructuring, experts said on Wednesday.

The world's largest mutual funds provider Vanguard expects returns from the A-share market to be between 7.5 percent and 9.5 percent in the next decade, outshining all the other markets in the world.

Wang Qian, chief economist for Vanguard Asia-Pacific, said that China's economic development will be more stable in the next few years as the problem of overcapacity has been properly addressed and more supportive macroeconomic policies are in place.

Lynda Zhou, chief investment officer in China for equities at Fidelity International, said the fund manager had an optimistic outlook on this year's A-share market performance.

Over the past few years, China has been through economic restructuring featured by deleveraging and cutting overcapacity. As a result, the country's annual GDP growth rate has been adjusted from the past double-digit figures to the current 5 percent to 6 percent. Such changes have exerted some negative impact on the stock market, she said.

"But as the more moderate GDP growth has become a new normal, the negative impact incurred by macroeconomic ups and downs on the A-share market will gradually subside in the next five to 10 years. A more stable A-share market will be conducive to higher-than-expected profits," she said.

Fidelity estimates that foreign capital in excess of 300 billion yuan ($43 billion) flowed into the A-share market in 2019, accounting for nearly 7 percent of the total market value of the A-share market. That number is equal to the positions held by mutual funds last year.

The number of breakthroughs and reforms in the Chinese capital market last year, including the launch of the technology-focused STAR market in Shanghai, the introduction of registration-based initial public offering mechanism, and the revised securities law announced at the end of last year, will enable a mature, sustained development of the A-share market, said Zhou. Foreign capital will continue to flow, helping to adjust the valuation system of the A-share market, she said.

Cheng Hao, a fund manager at Fidelity China, said that apart from rate bonds, overseas investors have started to invest in debentures. Compared to the coupon in other markets, the rate bonds and debentures will continue to be attractive to foreign investors.

Ethan Wang, head of investment strategy for wealth management at Standard Chartered China, said that there will be more fiscal stimulus than favorable currency policies in China in the next few years. The fiscal incentives will be translated into investment opportunities. High-end manufacturing, technology and consumption will be the sectors that will see the most supportive policies, as China's economic development is being increasingly driven by domestic demand.

Therefore, the A-share market will be the main investment target for Standard Chartered in its Asia strategy for the next six to 12 months, said Wang.

 

基金经理对国际投资者的参与表示乐观


专家周三表示,随着中国经济增长通过进一步重组企稳,今年中国a股市场预计将产生高于预期的利润,外国投资者的参与度也将提高。


全球最大的共同基金提供商Vanguard预计,未来10年a股市场的回报率将在7.5%至9.5%之间,超过全球所有其他市场。


先锋亚太(Vanguard Asia-Pacific)首席经济学家王倩表示,随着产能过剩问题得到妥善解决,更多支持性宏观经济政策到位,未来几年中国经济发展将更加稳定。


富达国际(Fidelity International)中国股市首席投资官林达•周(Lynda Zhou)表示,他对今年a股市场的表现持乐观态度。


过去几年,中国经历了以去杠杆、去产能为主要特征的经济结构调整。因此,中国的年GDP增长率已经从过去的两位数调整到现在的5%到6%。她说,这些变化对股市产生了一些负面影响。


“但随着国内生产总值(GDP)增速放缓成为新常态,宏观经济波动对a股市场的负面影响将在未来5至10年内逐渐消退。”一个更稳定的A股市场将有利于利润高于预期。


富达估计,2019年流入a股市场的外资超过3000亿元人民币(430亿美元),占a股市场总市值的近7%。这个数字相当于共同基金去年持有的头寸。


的突破和改革的数量去年中国的资本市场,包括强调技术的推出明星市场在上海,须就产权证的首次公开发行(ipo)的引入机制,和修改后的证券法宣布在去年年底,将使一个成熟,a股市场的持续发展,周说。她说,外资将继续流入,帮助调整a股市场的估值体系。


富达中国基金经理程浩表示,除了利率债券,海外投资者也开始投资债券。与其他市场的息票相比,利率债券和债券将继续吸引外国投资者。


渣打银行(Standard Chartered)中国财富管理投资策略主管王宇森(Ethan Wang)表示,未来几年,中国的财政刺激措施将多于有利的汇率政策。财政激励将转化为投资机会。随着中国经济发展越来越多地由内需驱动,高端制造业、技术和消费将是政策最具支持性的领域。


王说,因此,a股市场将是渣打银行未来6至12个月亚洲战略的主要投资目标。

原作者: Shi Jing 来自: china daily