找回密码
 立即注册
首页 Financial China 查看内容
  • QQ空间

Inflationary pressures stay subdued in China

2020-1-10 16:11

 

Easing consumer prices, improving industrial activity keep momentum on an even keel 

Inflation pressure has started abating in China and could remain subdued for the rest of the year as consumer prices, led by pork, have started softening since last month, analysts said on Thursday.

China's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, rose by 4.5 percent year-on-year in December, the same as the previous month, breaking a three-month streak of rising consumer inflation, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

The country's whole-year CPI came in at 2.9 percent, well within the government-stipulated target of 3 percent, according to the NBS.

The CPI stabilized last month as food prices rose at a slower pace of 17.4 percent, compared with 19.1 percent in November, the NBS said. The year-on-year rise in pork prices, which accounted for nearly half of the headline CPI growth, eased to 97 percent in December from November's 110.2 percent.

"With positive changes in hog production, the release of pork reserves from central and local levels into the market, and the rise in pork imports, concerns about tight pork supplies have further eased," said Shen Yun, a senior statistician with the NBS.

Nonfood prices gained 1.3 percent year-on-year last month, up from 1 percent in November, as prices of services such as medical care and education rose, said Shen.

On a monthly basis, the CPI remained flat last month, versus a 0.4 percent rise in November, as pork prices dropped by 5.6 percent from a month earlier, the bureau said.

Zhang Deli, chief macroeconomic analyst with Guangdong province-based Yuekai Securities, said that the concerns about spikes in consumer prices due to a shortfall in pork supplies are fading, as the nation has ramped up hog production steadily.

China's stock of breeding sows rose for the third consecutive month in December, up by 2.2 percent from November, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Wednesday.

"The CPI may peak in January because of strong demand for pork during Spring Festival and a low basis last year, but then decline gradually," Zhang said.

Tensions between the United States and Iran may push up crude oil prices and therefore the overall prices, yet only temporarily, Zhang said.

Steven Zhang, chief economist with Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said that if the US-Iran tensions cause a continuous tightening of global crude oil supplies, inflationary pressures may increase in China.

The possible disruptions from pork and oil on overall prices, however, are unlikely to change this year's focus of monetary policy from stabilizing economic growth to tempering inflation, he said.

The NBS data showed that the rise in core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained low at 1.4 percent year-on-year in December, unchanged from a month earlier, indicating sluggish domestic demand.

To reduce financing costs for the real economy, China's central bank may cut required bank reserves another two or three times this year, and the loan prime rate-the new benchmark lending interest rate-may see further drops, he said.

The producer price index, which gauges factory gate prices, dropped by 0.5 percent year-on-year last month, versus a 1.4 percent decrease in November, pointing to more industrial activity, NBS data said. For the whole of 2019, the PPI edged down by 0.3 percent.

 

消费价格下降,工业活动改善,保持了平稳增长的势头


分析师周四表示,随着以猪肉为首的消费价格自上月以来开始走软,中国的通胀压力已开始减弱,并可能在今年剩余时间保持温和。


国家统计局周四表示,中国12月份居民消费价格总水平(cpi)同比上涨4.5%,与上月持平,结束了连续3个月居民消费价格上涨的势头。


根据国家统计局的数据,全国全年CPI为2.9%,远低于政府设定的3%的目标。


国家统计局表示,由于食品价格涨幅从11月份的19.1%放缓至17.4%,上月CPI稳定下来。猪肉价格的同比涨幅从11月份的110.2%降至12月份的97%。


国家统计局高级统计师沈云表示:“随着生猪生产出现积极变化,中央和地方各级政府向市场投放猪肉储备,以及猪肉进口增加,人们对猪肉供应紧张的担忧已进一步缓解。”


沈说,由于医疗和教育等服务的价格上涨,上个月非食品价格同比上涨1.3%,高于11月的1%。


统计局表示,上月CPI环比持平,11月同比上涨0.4%,其中猪肉价格环比下降5.6%。


广东省粤凯证券(Yuekai Securities)首席宏观经济分析师张德利表示,随着中国稳步提高生猪产量,对猪肉供应短缺导致消费价格飙升的担忧正在消退。


中国农业农村部周三表示,中国的种猪存栏量在12月份连续第三个月上升,比11月份上升了2.2%。


张说:“由于春节期间猪肉需求旺盛,去年基数较低,CPI可能在1月份见顶,但随后会逐渐下降。”


张说,美国和伊朗之间的紧张关系可能会推高原油价格,从而推高整体油价,但这只是暂时的。


摩根士丹利华信证券(Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities)首席经济学家张智文(Steven Zhang)表示,如果美伊紧张局势导致全球原油供应持续吃紧,中国的通胀压力可能会加大。


不过,他表示,猪肉和石油可能对整体价格造成的干扰,不太可能改变今年的货币政策重点,从稳定经济增长转向缓和通胀。


国家统计局的数据显示,12月份核心CPI(不包括食品和能源价格)同比涨幅较低,为1.4%,与上月持平,表明国内需求疲软。


他说,为了降低实体经济的融资成本,中国央行今年可能会再下调银行存款准备金率两到三次,贷款优惠利率(新的基准贷款利率)可能会进一步下调。


国家统计局数据显示,衡量工业品出厂价格的生产者价格指数(ppi)上月同比下降0.5%,11月同比下降1.4%,表明工业活动增加。2019年全年,PPI小幅下降0.3%。

原作者: Zhou Lanxu 来自: china daily