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经济学家:美国贸易政策对全球经济有破坏性影响

2020-1-10 16:18

拉斯维加斯,1月9日(新华)——贸易政策的改变,特别是在美国,已经对全球经济产生了破坏性的影响,德勤会计师事务所首席全球经济学家艾拉·卡利什博士说。


“我们已经看到全球经济增长大幅减速……这在很大程度上与美国在过去三年中从本质上转向国内有关,”卡利什周三在拉斯维加斯举行的2020年国际消费电子展(CES)上发表题为《全球经济前景:看中国》的演讲时说。


他说,美国已经从战后推动贸易自由化和经济一体化的发展走向了完全相反的方向。


《经济学人》指出,美国退出TPP,对中国和其他国家征收关税,拒绝向世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)上诉机构任命新成员,从而削弱了该组织的地位。世贸组织的上诉机构不再能够裁决国家之间的贸易争端。


对外国商品征收关税意味着美国消费者和企业实际上要缴纳更高的税,这对他们的收入和购买力产生了负面影响。他说,到目前为止,关税还没有产生那么大的影响,因为这需要时间。他指出,美国对中国征收的最高关税是5月份才开始实施的,所以实质性的影响可能在今年不会太迟。


他说,贸易战带来了高度的不确定性。企业不知道关税会上升还是下降,也不知道如果美国对墨西哥和越南等国征收类似的关税,会发生什么样的报复。


这种不确定性显然对企业投资产生了寒蝉效应。事实上,在美国、欧洲、中国和日本,我们看到商业投资增长和贸易增长都可能放缓。”“这是我们看到经济增长放缓的主要原因。”


他说,美国经济增长已经放缓,主要原因是商业投资和出口急剧放缓。另一方面,消费者支出继续增长,房地产市场反弹,这些因素使美国经济能够继续以温和的速度增长。


然而,美国工业生产和实际商业投资增长大幅放缓,整体出口也出现放缓。他补充称,所有这些都是贸易战不确定性的后果。


他说:“未来几年,美国仍然存在经济衰退的风险,这主要是贸易冲突带来的不确定性造成的。”


在谈到中国经济时,卡利什表示,尽管中国经济增速放缓,但中国仍有很多希望,中国消费领域的前景非常乐观。


他表示:“尽管增速有所放缓,但中国很可能继续以相当健康的速度增长。”


他说,中国已经从一个穷国变成了一个中等收入国家,因此有理由预计增长会放缓。中国政府更注重刺激国内需求,特别是消费需求,扩大与美国以外国家的贸易,并寻求与世界其他地区的贸易自由化。


“因此,我们将看到中国可自由支配的购买力大幅增长,这将有助于推动全球消费行业,”他表示。他指出,中国的中产阶级正在迅速壮大,网上购物者数量庞大。


这意味着中国将从依赖出口和投资的增长转向更多地依赖消费支出的增长。因此,对以消费者为导向的公司来说,中国将是世界上最重要的市场,将推动全球消费行业的发展。

 

LAS VEGAS, Jan. 9 (Xinhua) -- A change of trade policy, particularly in the United States, has had a disruptive effect on the global economy, said Dr. Ira Kalish, chief global economist of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.

"We've already seen a pretty substantial deceleration of economic growth globally ... And it has a lot to do with the fact that the U.S. has over the past three years essentially turned inward," said Kalish when addressing a session titled Global Economic Landscape: A Look at China at the 2020 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Wednesday.

He said the United States has moved from a postwar development in which it promoted trade liberalization and economic integration toward quite the opposite.

The United States withdrew from the TPP, imposed tariffs on China and other countries, undermined the World Trade Organization by refusing to allow the appointment of new members to its appellate body, which no longer can adjudicate trade disputes between countries, the economist pointed out.

Imposing tariffs on foreign goods means U.S. consumers and businesses are effectively paying a higher tax that has a negative impact on their incomes and their purchasing ability. So far the tariffs haven't had that much of an impact because it takes time, he said, noting that the largest tariffs the U.S. imposed on China only began in May, so the substantial impact will probably appear not too late this year.

He said the trade war has unleashed a high degree of uncertainty. Businesses don't know if tariffs will go up or slow down, what kind of retaliation will take place if the U.S. imposes similar tariffs that it did on China to other countries like Mexico and Vietnam, which it has threatened to do.

"That uncertainty has evidently had a chilling effect on business investment. And in fact, in the United States, Europe, China and Japan, we've seen a possible slowdown in the growth of business investment as well as in the growth of trade," he said. "And that's the principal reason why we've seen a slowdown in economic growth."

The growth of U.S. economy has slowed down, principally because of a sharp slowdown in business investment and exports, he said. On the other hand, consumer spending has continued to grow, housing market has rebounded, and those are factors that have enabled the U.S. economy to continue growing at a modest pace.

However, the U.S. industrial production and real business investment growth have slowed down very sharply, and exports overall have showed slowdown as well. All of this is a consequence of the uncertainty about the trade war, he added.

"There's still some risk of recession in the coming years for the United States largely in consequence of the uncertainty unleashed by this trade conflict," he said.

When talking about the Chinese economy, Kalish said despite the fact that the economy growth has slowed down, China still holds a lot of promise, and there is a very favorable outlook for the consumer sector in China.

"China is likely to continue growing at a reasonably healthy pace, even though it has slowed down," he said.

China has gone from being a poor to a middle-income country, so it's reasonable to expect slower growth, he said. The Chinese government has focused more on stimulating domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, and expanding trade with countries other than the United States, and has sought trade liberalization with other parts of the world.

"So we're going to see a substantial increase in discretionary purchasing power in China, and that is going to help to fuel the global consumer industry," he said, noting that China has a rapidly growing middle class and a large number of online shoppers.

It means that China will move away from growth based on exports and investment and more toward growth based on consumer spending. So for consumer-oriented companies, China will be the most important market in the world that will drive the global consumer industry, he said.

来自: xinhua