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新闻分析:意大利经济喜忧参半

2020-1-11 14:27

罗马,1月10日(新华社)——最新一轮的经济指标显示出意大利缓慢增长的经济的积极迹象——但只是勉强。


意大利国家统计局(ISTAT)周五发布了11月份国内工业产出的最新数据,12月份整体经济形势有所改善。此前一天,该研究所报告称,总体就业率升至1977年以来的最低水平。


然而,上述数字都没有显著改善。


该协会表示,11月工业生产较上月增长0.1%,扭转了前三个月产量小幅下降的趋势。报告还说,总体经济形势“倾向于”全球经济“温和”增长的趋势。


周四公布的失业数据也反映了类似的情况:11月份意大利有工作的人数较上月增加了0.1%。尽管整体数据是40多年来最好的,但该指标在过去几个月一直在这一水平附近徘徊,经济学家表示,一些工人失业可能夸大了这一数字。


希尔德布兰和费拉尔驻米兰的首席经济学家哈维尔•诺列加对新华社表示:“最新的经济消息大多不错,但并不令人震惊。”“我认为最新数据可能是脆弱经济复苏的开始。”


尽管如此,最近的数据对于一个经济增长缓慢、年轻工人失业率高企、缺乏研究和创新投资的经济体来说仍然是好消息。分析人士说,对进入美国的欧洲商品征收关税,以及一些国家之间的贸易战也对经济复苏的前景造成了压力。


ABS证券分析师Oliviero Fiorini在接受采访时表示,"现在判断这是否是个开始还为时过早。"


“这显然比相反的情况要好,相反的情况在指标上是一个略微负面的趋势。但没有理由认为意大利的根本形势已经改变。经济仍然需要重大的结构改革,对政治不稳定的担忧仍然笼罩着一切。几个月后我们才能知道这些最新的指标意味着什么。”


诺列加表示,希腊经济正受益于一些外部因素,“比如相对疲弱的欧元有助于出口,而较低的政府债券收益率有助于节省政府的资金。”


他说:“但是,我担心,在有一个拥有绝对多数的政府,以及一个希望推行正确改革的政府之前,这些小步骤是经济所能期待的最好结果。”


普遍的估计是,当2019年的最终数据统计出来时,意大利经济全年将增长约0.1%。但ISTAT的官方数据表示,预计2020年的经济增长率将升至0.6%左右。

 

ROME, Jan. 10 (Xinhua) -- The latest round of economic indicators are showing positive signs for Italy's slow-growing economy -- but just barely.

Italy's National Statistics Institute (ISTAT) on Friday released new data on domestic industrial output for November and the overall economic situation improved in December. A day earlier, the institute reported that the overall employment rate improved to its lowest level since 1977.

However, none of the aforementioned figures improved by significant amounts.

The institute said that industrial production in November increased 0.1 percent compared to the previous month, reversing a trend that saw small decreases in production the previous three months. It also said the overall economic situation was "leaning toward" the worldwide trend for "moderate" economic growth.

The unemployment figure released Thursday told a similar tale: the number of Italians with a job climbed 0.1 percent in November compared to the previous month. Though the overall figure is the best in more than 40 years, the indicator had been hovering around that level for the last several months and economists said the number may have been inflated by some workers dropping out of the workforce.

"The latest economic news has mostly been good, but it's not overwhelming," Javier Noriega, chief economist with Hildebrandt and Ferrar in Milan, told Xinhua. "I look at the latest data as what could be the start of a fragile economic recovery."

Still, the recent figures are positive news for an economy dogged by slow economic growth, high unemployment levels for young workers, and a lack of investment in research and innovation. Tariffs on European goods entering the United States, and the trade war between some countries are also weighing on the prospects of economic recovery, analysts said.

"It's too early to tell if this is the start of something," ABS Securities analyst Oliviero Fiorini said in an interview.

"It's obviously better than the contrary, which would be a slightly negative trend in the indicators. But there's no reason to think the underlying situation in Italy has changed. The economy still needs major structural reforms and worries about political instability still cast a shadow over everything. We won't know what these newest indicators mean until we can look back in a few months."

According to Noriega, the economy is benefiting from some external factors "like a relatively weak euro that is helping exports and low yields on government debt that help save the government money."

"But until there is a government with a solid majority and a desire to push through the right kind of reforms, I worry these small steps are the best the economy can hope for," he said.

The consensus estimates are that when the final data for 2019 is tallied that the Italian economy will have grown around 0.1 percent for the year as a whole. But official data from ISTAT said it expects the economic growth rate to increase to around 0.6 percent for 2020.

来自: xinhua