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世行报告认为全球经济下行风险不容忽视

2020-1-12 15:05

 

      新华社华盛顿1月11日电 世界银行日前发布的2020年1月期《全球经济展望》报告说,投资和贸易从去年严重疲软状态逐渐复苏,但下行风险依旧存在,预计发达经济体2020年整体增速下滑至1.4%,新兴市场和发展中经济体今年增速加快至4.1%。

  报告显示,预测美国经济增速今年将放缓至1.8%,反映出前段时间加征关税和不确定性上升产生的负面影响。由于工业活动疲软,2020年欧元区经济增长预计下调至1%。

  报告还说,新兴市场和发展中经济体今年增速加快,但并非范围广泛的回暖。由于出口和投资弱于预期,预计三分之一的新兴市场和发展中经济体今年将出现增长减速。

  报告强调,全球增长前景面临的下行风险不容忽视,这些风险变成现实会使增长大幅放缓。下行风险包括贸易紧张局势和贸易政策不确定性再度升级、主要经济体下滑幅度超过预期以及新兴市场和发展中经济体出现金融动荡。

  世界银行副行长杰伊拉·帕扎尔巴舍奥卢在报告中呼吁,由于新兴经济体和发展中经济体的增长可能仍将保持缓慢,决策者应抓住机会进行结构性改革,以促进广泛的增长,这对减贫至关重要。帕扎尔巴舍奥卢表示,改善营商环境、法治、债务管理和促进生产率提升的举措有助于实现经济持续增长。

 

Washington, Jan. 11 (xinhua) -- The world bank's January 2020 global economic outlook report says investment and trade are recovering from last year's severe weakness, but downside risks remain.


Us economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.8 per cent this year, reflecting the negative impact of recent tariffs and rising uncertainty, according to the report. Eurozone growth is forecast to be revised down to 1 per cent in 2020 because of weak industrial activity.


The report also said growth in emerging markets and developing economies accelerated this year, but not a broad-based recovery. A third of emerging market and developing economies are expected to experience a slowdown this year as exports and investment are weaker than expected.


The report stresses that downside risks to the global growth outlook cannot be ignored, and that the realisation of these risks would lead to a sharp slowdown in growth. Downside risks include renewed escalation of trade tensions and trade policy uncertainties, sharper-than-expected declines in major economies and financial turmoil in emerging and developing economies.


With growth in emerging and developing economies likely to remain slow, policy makers should seize the opportunity to undertake structural reforms to promote broad-based growth, which is critical to reducing poverty, world bank vice President ceira pazarbazoglu said in the report. Pazzar basoglu said measures to improve the business climate, rule of law, debt management and boost productivity would help achieve sustained economic growth.

来自: 新华网