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印度零售通胀在2019年12月升至65个月高点

2020-1-14 14:11

孟买,1月14日(新华社)——根据周一晚些时候政府发布的数据,印度12月消费者价格指数(CPI)上升到7.35%,这是自2014年7月以来最糟糕的一次。


“CPI通胀是在高于我们的预期在上个月7.35%比5.54%,主要由食品价格通胀飙升和上升势头在杂项篮子由电信关税激增,“Anushri邦萨尔说,ICICI银行分析师,印度第二大银行的资产和市值。


这是通胀率连续第三个月高于中国央行设定的4%的舒适区间,粉碎了降息以刺激经济增长的希望。


印度国内投资服务公司Geojit Financial services的经济学家迪帕蒂•玛丽•马修(Deepthi Mary Mathew)表示:“未来几个月,食品通胀可能会消退,但地缘政治紧张对原油价格的压力是一个令人担忧的领域。”


她表示,央行将在明年2月维持利率不变,并将在恢复减息前密切关注当前形势下的财政赤字数据。


印度经济在2019年4 - 6月季度和7 - 9月季度分别下滑至5%和4.5%的6年低点,尽管该国央行在本年度将政策利率下调135个基点,至5.15%以提振经济增长。


不过,中国央行在去年12月的上一次政策审议会议上维持利率不变,理由是担心近期的通胀。


他说:“印度央行可能不会在近期内提高政策利率。它可能也无法降低利率。尽管围绕可能出现的财政滑坡的环境可能对利率产生不利影响,但通胀水平短期内将加剧这些担忧,”埃姆凯财富管理(Emkay Wealth Management)研究主管约瑟夫•托马斯(Joseph Thomas)表示。

 

MUMBAI, Jan. 14 (Xinhua) -- India's consumer price index (CPI) in December rose to 7.35 percent, the worst since July 2014 as per the data released by the government late Monday.

"CPI inflation came in higher than our expectations at 7.35 percent vs. 5.54 percent last month, driven primarily by a sharp spike in food inflation and upward momentum in miscellaneous basket led by surge in telecom tariffs," said Anushri Bansal, analyst with ICICI Bank, the second largest Indian bank in terms of assets and market capitalization.

The inflation rate marks the third consecutive month in a row when the rate was above comfort zone of 4 percent stated by the country's central bank, destroying hopes of possible interest rate cut to stimulate growth.

"Food inflation might subside in the coming months, but the pressure on crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions is an area of concern," said Deepthi Mary Mathew, an economist from domestic investment services company Geojit Financial Services.

She said the central bank will hold the rates in February, and would also keep a close watch on the fiscal deficit figures in the current scenario before resuming the rate cuts.

Indian economy slumped to over six-year low of 5 percent and 4.5 percent growth rate in the April-June quarter and July-September quarter of 2019, respectively despite the country's central bank reducing policy rate by 135 basis points to 5.15 percent during the year to boost growth.

However, the Central Bank kept rates unchanged in its last policy review meeting in December, citing concerns over inflation in the near term.

"RBI (central bank) may not hike the policy rates in the immediate future. It may not be able to cut the rates either. While the circumstances around likely fiscal slippages may have an adverse impact on interest rates, the inflation level would add to these worries in the immediate term," said Joseph Thomas, head of research in Emkay Wealth Management.

来自: xinhua