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当道琼斯指数创出新高时,牛市仍在继续中

2020-1-17 14:30

NEW YORK, Jan. 8, 2020 -- Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, the United States, on Jan. 8, 2020. U.S. stocks finished higher on Wednesday as market fears were partly relieved after President Donald Trump's comments on Iran's missile strike against Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 161.41 points, or 0.56 percent, to 28,745.09. The S&P 500 increased 15.87 points, or 0.49 percent, to 3,253.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 60.66 points, or 0.67 percent, to 9,129.24. Wang Ying/Xinhua—Getty

投资者很可能对2020年本已令人眼花缭乱的交易日感到头晕目眩。但随着道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)周四午盘创下历史新高,上涨逾200点,一些华尔街人士预计,市场仍有更多上涨空间。


在与伊朗冲突的艰难开局之后,市场不仅有所缓和,而且在周三两国之间的紧张局势似乎有所缓和。在嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)负责交易和衍生品业务的副总裁兰迪•弗雷德里克(Randy Frederick)看来,周四的历史高点“并不太令人意外”,因为地缘政治冲突在历史上曾出现过市场下跌和崩盘的情况。


但对Bankrate.com的高级经济分析师哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)等人来说,新年伊始投资者的看涨交易可能预示着更多的上涨。


哈姆里克对《财富》杂志(Fortune)表示:“最值得注意的事情之一是,为投资者制造忧虑的来源并不缺乏,市场已设法将自己与那些焦虑的根源拉开距离,……向更高的地方移动。”除了市场的相对成熟的应对地缘政治紧张局势,Hamrick表明,从历史的角度来看,2020年早期集会提要成“历史记录,并不能保证但确实表明市场应该做好在今年年底的时候都说了,该做的也做了,”他说。


虽然新年无疑给投资者带来了惊喜,但分析师们仍在关注支撑经济的基本面。他们看到了什么?大量的积极因素应该会推动进一步的回报。

从第一阶段到历史回报


中国国务院副总理刘鹤定于下周访问华盛顿,他将与中国达成第一阶段的贸易协议,分析师认为这是推动市场的最大亮点之一。事实上,弗雷德里克认为,除非出现完全意料之外的情况,随着贸易方面越来越多的解决方案继续提振市场,“有充足的理由认为,这个市场在2020年能够走高”。事实上,LPL Financial的赖安•德特里克(Ryan Detrick)认为,如果中国方面的问题得到解决,市场今年的回报率甚至可能达到两位数。


德特里克还希望通过世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)的CEO信心指数,缓慢恢复CEO的信心。该公司第四季度的CEO信心指数为43,高于第三季度的34。德特里克表示:“企业方面的信心已经恢复,这可能真的有助于延长这个商业周期。”


嘉信理财的弗雷德里克认为,从历史上看,大选年往往是市场四年选举周期中表现最好的年份之一。他指出,“每个人都很乐观”——无论是特朗普再执政四年,还是新总统。作为继近30%的市场回报率之后的又一年,在经济的支撑下,2020年可能也会有强劲的表现。弗雷德里克表示:“总体而言,经济数据……足够好,如果没有拖累,市场可以继续小幅走高。”

需要注意些什么


嘉信理财的弗雷德里克建议,投资者应密切关注未来几周伊朗可能采取报复行动的消息。但他也将即将到来的财报季视为市场在强劲开局后表现如何的重要指标。


然而,哈姆里克警告说:“当我们让市场像这样运行时,历史表明,好事情不会永远持续下去——我们只是不知道聚会举行的房间里的灯什么时候关了。”

Investors may very well have vertigo from the already dizzying spate of trading days in 2020. But as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs midday Thursday, moving up over 200 points, some on the Street are predicting markets still have more room to run.


Following a rocky start to the year marked by conflict with Iran, markets not only eased—but leaped—at what seems to be de-escalated tensions between the two nations on Wednesday. From vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab Randy Frederick's perspective, Thursday's record highs "are not too surprising," as geopolitical conflicts have historically dropped and popped markets.


But for those like Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, investors' bullish trading to kick off the new year could be a sign of more upside to come.


"One of the most remarkable things is there have been no shortage of sources that generate the proverbial wall of worry for investors, and the market has managed to distance itself from those underpinnings of anxiety and move … to higher ground," Hamrick tells Fortune. In addition to markets' relatively mellow response to geopolitical tensions, Hamrick suggests that from a historical standpoint, the early rally in 2020 feeds into a "historical record that doesn’t guarantee but does suggest that the market ought to do well through the end of the year when it’s all said and done," he says.  


While the new year certainly came in with a bang for investors, analysts are looking to the fundamentals underpinning the economy. What they're seeing? Plenty of positives that should drive further returns.


From phase one to historical returns


Chinese Vice Premier Liu He's scheduled trip to Washington next week should seal a phase one trade deal with China, something analysts see as one of the biggest bright spots driving the market. In fact, Frederick believes that, barring anything wholly unexpected, "there’s plenty of reason to think this market can go higher" in 2020 as increasing resolution on the trade front continues to buoy markets. In fact, LPL Financial's Ryan Detrick thinks that if we see resolution on the China front, markets could even post double-digit returns this year.


Detrick is also looking to slowly rebounding CEO confidence via The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence, which read 43 for the 4th quarter, up from 34 in the 3rd. "Confidence has come back from the corporate side of things, and that could really help to extend this business cycle," Detrick suggests.


And Schwab's Frederick suggests that, historically, an election year tends to be one of the best performing years of the four-year election cycle in the markets, noting that "everybody’s optimistic"—whether it be for four more years of Trump, or a new president. As a year that followed nearly 30% market returns, 2020 could be shaping up to see strong performance as well on the back of the economy. "The economic data in general has been … good enough that, if it’s not a drag, the markets can continue to move a little higher," Frederick says.


What to watch


Investors should keep their eyes peeled for news of a potential retaliation from Iran in the coming weeks, Schwab's Frederick suggests. But he also sees the upcoming earnings season as an important indicator of how markets could perform following their strong start.


Yet Hamrick cautions: "When we’ve had the market on a run like this, history has suggested that good things don’t last forever—we just don’t know when the lights are turned off in the room where the party’s been held." 

原作者: Anne Sraders 来自: fortune