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Impact of coronavirus on real estate market will not 'last long'

2020-2-1 12:19

 

The Chinese real estate market is expected to see pressure from sales in the short term this year as the novel coronavirus outbreak has curbed demand and offline sales, although the impact is not likely to last over the long term, industry experts said.

The Spring Festival holiday is traditionally a warm-up season for housing, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities, as some buyers who cannot afford a house in big cities where they work may turn to their hometown instead. Real estate companies often offer discounts and promotional deals to boost sales at this time.

However, the contagious disease, which had infected 9,692 people and claimed 213 lives on the Chinese mainland as of early Friday, has restrained demand and reduced economic activities like consumption and investment, said Liang Qidong, vice-president of the Liaoning Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

Housing sales from migrant professionals and workers during this period will see a significant drop and the warm season may be postponed to the second quarter of this year, Zhang Bo, chief analyst of Anjuke, a Chinese property portal, told the National Business Daily.

Selling and marketing activities have also declined.

The China Real Estate Association proposed on Jan 26 that property operators suspend business at their offline sales offices in order to prevent human-to-human transmission and contain the further spread of the virus.

So far, more than 50 cities have answered the call, including Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak. The other cities include Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Nanjing, data from the China Index Academy showed.

About 30 provincial-level regions in the country have activated their first-level emergency response to the novel coronavirus outbreak. The suspension of group activities is a method taken by many local governments.

Real estate brands such as Country Garden, Sino-Ocean, China Jinmao, Vanke and Yuexiu have also announced the closure of their sales offices in some cities.

Liu Bo, an analyst with consultancy Roland Berger, said in the short term, the prevention and control of the outbreak would influence construction and sales of real estate projects. It would also pose challenges for property companies that rely on a high turnover rate.

"Besides, top companies may choose to give deep discounts to boost sales, which will squeeze the market space for small-and medium-sized companies," he added.

More property operators such as China Fortune Land Development, Sunac China and Yango have turned to online marketing channels like WeChat mini-programs so that clients can see the floor plan, photos and learn details through phone or online consulting services.

Yan Yuejin, research director at the E-house China R&D Institute, said the measure helps prevent the gathering of people and make marketing more flexible.

He added, though, that the main factor to influence the development of property market has not changed, but the temporary closures would not have a big impact on full-year sales.

Yingda Securities Chief Economist Li Daxiao said as the prevention and control of the novel coronavirus have entered a key period, their impact on some business activities is inevitable.

But the economist pointed out that the "adjustment of policies, as well as the steady recovery of housing sales and prices, can also be expected".

Ji Wei, a founding managing partner of Meridian Capital, said as the outbreak has raised concerns about health and safety, industries that rely on offline interactions will be more affected in terms of revenue and cash flow.

She suggests companies adjust policies toward human resources, business focus and marketing methods to reduce the impact to a minimum.

 

业内专家表示,由于新型冠状病毒的爆发抑制了需求和线下销售,预计今年中国房地产市场短期内将面临销售压力,尽管这种影响不太可能长期持续。


传统上,春节假期是住房市场的热热身季节,尤其是在三四线城市,因为一些在工作的大城市买不起房的购房者可能会转而回到家乡。房地产公司经常在这个时候提供折扣和促销活动来促进销售。


然而,辽宁省社会科学院副院长梁启东表示,截至上周五凌晨,这一传染性疾病已在中国大陆造成9692人感染,213人死亡,抑制了需求,减少了消费和投资等经济活动。


中国房地产门户网站安居客(Anjuke)首席分析师张波在接受《每日经济新闻》(National Business Daily)采访时表示,在此期间,外来专业人员和工人的住房销售将大幅下降,暖季可能会推迟到今年第二季度。


销售和市场活动也有所下降。


1月26日,中国房地产协会提出,为防止人传人和遏制病毒的进一步传播,房地产运营商应暂停其线下售楼处的业务。


到目前为止,已有50多个城市响应号召,其中包括疫情中心武汉。中国指数研究院的数据显示,其他城市包括广州、杭州、成都和南京。


全国约有30个省级地区启动了对新型冠状病毒爆发的一级应急响应。暂停集体活动是许多地方政府采取的一种方法。


碧桂园(Country Garden)、远洋(Sino-Ocean)、中国金茂(China Jinmao)、万科(Vanke)和越秀(Yuexiu)等房地产品牌也已宣布关闭部分城市的销售办事处。


咨询公司罗兰贝格(Roland Berger)分析师刘波表示,在短期内,疫情的预防和控制将影响房地产项目的建设和销售。这也将给依赖高周转率的房地产公司带来挑战。


他补充称:“此外,大公司可能会选择大幅打折来提振销售,这将挤压中小企业的市场空间。”


越来越多的房地产运营商,如华鑫置地、融创中国和杨格,已经转向微信微节目等在线营销渠道,这样客户就可以通过电话或在线咨询服务看到建筑平面图、照片,了解细节。


易居中国研发中心(E-house China R&D Institute)研究主任严跃进表示,这一措施有助于防止人员聚集,并使营销更加灵活。


但他补充称,影响房地产市场发展的主要因素没有改变,但临时关闭不会对全年销售产生重大影响。


英大证券首席经济学家李大霄表示,随着新型冠状病毒防控工作进入关键时期,其对部分业务活动的影响是不可避免的。


但《经济学人》指出,“政策的调整,以及住房销售和房价的稳步回升,也是可以预期的”。


Meridian Capital公司的创始合伙人冀伟(音译)表示,随着疾病的爆发,人们开始担心健康和安全问题,那些依赖线下互动的行业将会在收入和现金流方面受到更大的影响。


她建议企业调整针对人力资源、业务重点和营销方法的政策,以将影响降至最低。

 

原作者: CHEN MEILING 来自: china daily