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Manufacturing PMI slightly down in Jan

2020-2-2 14:42

 

Official index still on 50 though, the level separating expansion from contraction

Operations of businesses in China continued to expand in January but the overall expansion slowed down slightly, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

The official purchasing managers' index for China's manufacturing sector dropped by 0.2 percentage point from the previous month to 50 in January, sitting right on the line that separates expansion from contraction.

The survey on China's manufacturing and nonmanufacturing business activities was conducted before Jan 20. On that day, a highlevel expert team of China's National Health Commission confirmed human-to-human transmission of a novel coronavirus and infection of medical staff.

"As the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak on China's manufacturing was not fully manifested during the period of the survey, we still need to further observe the trend afterward," said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS.

One of the main features of the latest manufacturing PMI is that the new orders index increased for the third straight month in January, up by 0.2 percentage point from December, to 51.4. The production index, on the contrary, fell 1.9 percentage points to 51.3 over the same period. It shows the acceleration of growth of demand in the manufacturing sector and the slowing of production growth, Zhao said in a note posted on the website of the bureau.

"In the meantime, China continued to make a transition in drivers of economic growth, with the hightech sector leading the development of the country," he said.

The PMI for the high-tech manufacturing industry was 52.9, which was 2.9 percentage points higher than the manufacturing PMI. While the expansion of the high-tech manufacturing sector has continuously sped up since September, energy-intensive industries remained contracting as their PMI was 49, he said.

The nonmanufacturing business activity index increased by 0.6 percentage point from the previous month to 54.1 in January. The business activity index of the majority of service industries, including express delivery, telecommunications and banking, stood above 60, showing a boom in relevant companies and financial institutions, according to the NBS.

"The construction industry also remained prosperous as its business activity index and new orders index hit 59.7 and 53.8 respectively, demonstrating steady growth in the production and market demand in the construction industry, which was spurred by measures put in place by the Chinese government to improve weak links in infrastructure," Zhao said.

As the survey was conducted before official confirmation of the coronavirus outbreak, the results did not fully reveal the economic impact of the coronavirus, said Wen Bin, chief researcher with China Minsheng Banking Corp.

"The manufacturing PMI in January sat on the line that separates expansion from contraction, showing that the momentum of economic growth is not sufficient. After taking the coronavirus outbreak into consideration, policymakers should step up employment of countercyclical regulatory instruments," Wen said.

He advised policymakers to raise the annual fiscal deficit target to 3 percent of gross domestic product for 2020, up from 2.8 percent last year, and increase this year's special-purpose local government bonds quota to around 3 trillion yuan ($432.5 billion), compared with the 2.15 trillion yuan quota for 2019.

He is also looking forward to the People's Bank of China, the central bank, to ensure adequate liquidity in the financial system via reverse repo operations and medium-term lending facility.

"The PBOC should cut the rate on medium-term lending facility loans, which will lead to a decline in loan prime rate, a rate set by the central bank based on quotes from a panel of banks, to lower financing costs for businesses as soon as possible and stabilize financial market expectations," he said.

 

官方指数仍处于50,即区分经济扩张和收缩的水平


国家统计局周五表示,1月份中国企业业务继续扩张,但整体扩张速度略有放缓。


1月份,中国制造业官方采购经理人指数(pmi)较上月下降0.2个百分点,至50,正好位于荣枯分界线上。


这项关于中国制造业和非制造业商业活动的调查是在1月20日前进行的。当天,中国国家卫生健康委员会的一个高级专家小组证实了一种新型冠状病毒的人际传播和医护人员感染。


国家统计局高级统计师赵庆和表示:“由于新型冠状病毒爆发对中国制造业的影响在调查期间没有完全体现出来,我们仍需要在调查之后进一步观察这一趋势。”


最新制造业PMI的主要特征之一是,1月份新订单指数连续第三个月上升,较12月上升0.2个百分点,至51.4。而同期的生产指数则下降了1.9个百分点,至51.3。赵在国家统计局网站上发布的一份报告中说,这显示了制造业需求的加速增长和生产增长的放缓。


他说:“与此同时,中国继续转变经济增长的驱动力,以高科技行业引领国家的发展。”


高新技术制造业PMI为52.9,比制造业PMI高2.9个百分点。他表示,尽管自9月份以来,高科技制造业的扩张持续加速,但能源密集型行业的PMI为49,仍在收缩。


1月份非制造业商业活动指数较上月上升0.6个百分点,至54.1。根据国家统计局的数据,包括快递、电信和银行在内的大多数服务行业的商业活动指数都超过了60,这表明相关公司和金融机构的业务正在蓬勃发展。


“建筑行业也保持繁荣的商业活动指数和新订单指数分别为59.7和53.8,表明在生产和市场需求稳定增长在建筑业,这是由于中国政府实施的措施来改善基础设施的薄弱环节,”赵说。


中国民生银行首席研究员温斌说,由于这项调查是在官方确认冠状病毒爆发之前进行的,结果并没有完全揭示冠状病毒的经济影响。


“1月份的制造业PMI处于荣枯线之上,表明经济增长的势头还不够强劲。在考虑到冠状病毒爆发后,政策制定者应该加强反周期监管工具的使用,”温说。


他建议政策制定者将年度财政赤字目标提高到2020年的国内生产总值(gdp)的3%,高于去年的2.8%,并增加今年的专用地方政府债券额度约3万亿元(4325亿美元),相比之下,2019年2.15万亿元的限额。


他还期待中国央行通过反向回购操作和中期借贷安排,确保金融体系中有充足的流动性。


“中国央行应该削减中期贷款贷款的利率,这将导致贷款优惠利率的下降,央行设定的利率基础上引用的银行,尽快降低企业的融资成本和稳定金融市场的预期,”他说。

 

原作者: JIANG XUEQING 来自: china daily