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NDRC: Contagion's economic effects will be limited

2020-2-4 11:33

 

The ongoing coronavirus outbreak will have temporary, limited economic effects, but it won't leave a permanent mark on the Chinese economy due to the country's strong economic fundamentals, according to the nation's top economic regulator.

"We are fully capable and confident of winning the battle against the epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus, and we have confidence in minimizing its impact on the economy," said Lian Weiliang, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission.

"In comparison with the 2002-2003 SARS epidemic, China's economic strength, material and goods accumulation and ability to cope with emergencies are significantly stronger than that period," Lian said at a State Council Information Office news conference in Beijing on Monday.

The spread of the virus has sparked concerns among Chinese investors and sent China's A-share market tumbling on Monday, the first trading day after the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

The key Shanghai Composite Index slumped by 7.72 percent, or 229.92 points, to close at 2,746.61, the largest single-day point loss since 2016.

Health authorities announced on Monday that 17,205 infection cases of the novel coronavirus had been confirmed on the Chinese mainland by the end of Sunday, with 361 deaths. This contrasted with 830 confirmed cases by Jan 23, the last trading day before the holiday.

Despite the market plunge on Monday, a net total of nearly 18.2 billion yuan ($2.6 billion) in foreign capital flowed into the A-share market via stock connects between the mainland and Hong Kong bourses, the second-highest amount in history, pointing to global investors' confidence in the long-term prospects of the Chinese economy.

Xu Gao, chief economist at BOC International (China), said economic fallout from the outbreak should be short-lived as stringent control measures may help curb the epidemic's nationwide spread as early as this month.

"What concerns the market most is the uncertainty over future developments of the outbreak," Xu said. "Once there is a clear trend that the epidemic is being contained, the market should see a palpable recovery."

The epidemic may drag down year-on-year GDP growth for the first quarter by about 1 percentage point and cost full-year growth around 0.2 percentage point, contingent on effective policy measures to combat the epidemic, Xu added.

The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, injected 1.2 trillion yuan into the financial system on Monday and lowered interest rates for financial institutions to procure the funding by 0.1 percentage point. Analysts said the move signaled more monetary easing measures in the future to help the economy ride out the virus.

"To cope with the current situation, fiscal policies should focus on providing tax breaks and financial subsidies for sectors impacted by the coronavirus, and more efforts are needed to boost consumption and resume production," said Tang Jianwei, a senior economist at Bank of Communications in Shanghai.

"Economic growth in the first quarter is likely to get hurt since the outbreak coincides with the period surrounding the Spring Festival holiday," Tang said. "The coronavirus will hit tourism, lodging, catering, transportation and other related sectors hard. Sales of clothing, furniture, home appliances and cosmetics may also be affected to some extent. Despite the temporary impact on the Chinese economy, the outbreak won't affect the economy's mid-to-long-term fundamentals," Tang added.

Looking into 2020, major factors influencing the economy are domestic macroeconomic policies and the external environment of economic and trade relations with the United States, he said.

December's weaker profitability data among industrial firms also added to analysts' confidence that more measures to stabilize the economy are on the horizon, as the data indicated that domestic demand remained sluggish.

Profits of China's major industrial firms declined 6.3 percent year-on-year in December, down from a 5.4 percent year-on-year expansion in November, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

Wang Haoyu, managing director at Beijing-based CreditEase Wealth Management, said that the stock market slump caused by the epidemic is creating buying opportunities as the long-run bullish prospect remains intact.

The virus outbreak will not change the long-term factors that determine the attractiveness of the A-share market, such as low valuations by global standards, the increasing allocation of foreign capital and the ramped-up efforts of market-oriented and law-based reforms, Wang said. 

 

中国最高经济监管机构表示,持续的冠状病毒疫情将对经济产生暂时的、有限的影响,但由于中国经济基本面强劲,它不会给中国经济留下永久性的影响。


国家发展和改革委员会副主任连维良表示:“我们完全有能力、有信心打赢这场由新型冠状病毒引起的疫情,我们有信心将其对经济的影响降到最低。”


“与2002-2003年的非典疫情相比,中国的经济实力、物资积累和应对突发事件的能力都明显增强,”廉思周一在国务院新闻办公室的新闻发布会上说。


病毒的蔓延引发了中国投资者的担忧,并导致中国a股市场周一暴跌,这是春节长假后的第一个交易日。


上证综合指数下跌7.72%,收于2746.61点,跌幅229.92点,创下2016年以来最大单日跌幅。


卫生部门周一宣布,截至周日,中国大陆已确诊17205例新型冠状病毒感染病例,其中361人死亡。这与1月23日(春节前最后一个交易日)的830例确诊病例形成了对比。


尽管市场周一暴跌,净共有近182亿元(26亿美元)的外国资本流入a股市场通过证券之间的连接大陆和香港交易所,历史上第二多,指向全球投资者对中国经济的长期前景的信心。


中银国际(中国)有限公司首席经济学家许高表示,疫情造成的经济影响应该是短暂的,因为严格的控制措施可能有助于最早在本月遏制疫情在全国范围内的蔓延。


“市场最担心的是疫情未来发展的不确定性,”徐说。“一旦有明显的趋势表明,疫情正在得到控制,市场应该会出现明显的复苏。”


徐补充说,这一疫情可能会拖累第一季度GDP同比增长约1个百分点,并使全年经济增长损失约0.2个百分点,这取决于有效的抗击疫情的政策措施。


中国人民银行周一向金融系统注入了1.2万亿元人民币,并将金融机构获取资金的利率下调了0.1个百分点。分析人士说,此举预示着未来将出台更多的货币宽松措施,帮助经济渡过难关。


交通银行(Bank of Communications)驻上海的高级经济学家唐建伟表示:“为应对当前形势,财政政策应侧重于为受冠状病毒影响的行业提供税收减免和财政补贴,需要付出更多努力来刺激消费和恢复生产。”


唐说:“第一季度的经济增长可能会受到影响,因为疫情的爆发恰逢春节假期。”“冠状病毒将严重影响旅游、住宿、餐饮、交通等相关行业。服装、家具、家电和化妆品的销售也可能受到一定程度的影响。尽管此次疫情对中国经济的影响是暂时的,但不会影响中国经济中长期的基本面。”


他说,展望2020年,影响经济的主要因素是国内宏观经济政策和中美经贸关系的外部环境。


12月工业企业获利能力数据疲弱,也增强了分析师的信心,因数据显示国内需求依然疲弱,他们认为将出台更多稳定经济的措施。


国家统计局周一表示,12月份中国主要工业企业利润同比下降6.3%,低于11月份5.4%的同比增幅。


北京宜信财富管理(CreditEase Wealth Management)董事总经理王浩宇表示,由于长期看涨的前景依然不变,这种流行病导致的股市暴跌正在创造买入机会。


王说,“病毒”的爆发不会改变a股市场吸引力的长期决定因素,如以全球标准衡量的估值较低、外国资本配置的增加以及市场导向和法制改革的力度加大。

 

来自: xinhua