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Yuan holds steady amid epidemic

2020-2-6 11:59

 

Experts: Chinese currency will continue to maintain stable trajectory

The yuan continued to hold ground and did not retreat far from the psychological threshold of 7 per US dollar during the three trading days after the extended Lunar New Year holiday, with the market expecting a relatively stable value for the currency amid the fight against novel coronavirus epidemic.

The central parity rate of the yuan, or the daily trading reference rate against the US dollar, weakened by 44 basis points on Wednesday to 6.9823. The onshore yuan exchange rate strengthened to 6.98 per dollar on Wednesday.

It followed a drop of 530 basis points to 6.9779 yuan per dollar on Tuesday-the largest intraday decline since July 20, 2018. The US dollar index strengthened to 97.95, the highest since Jan 30.

Global central banks have expressed concern on the currency fluctuations and indicated a willingness to stimulate economic growth as the novel coronavirus epidemic had increased the downside risks for the world economy.

On Wednesday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore said there is "sufficient room" for the currency to ease, if the economy weakens due to the novel coronavirus epidemic. Similar stimulus may be taken by central bankers in Japan and Australia to shield the economy. The possible monetary easing such as further interest rate cuts will see currencies retreating, especially in Asia.

"Investors should take a rational view on the short-term yuan fluctuations," said Xie Yaxuan, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities."The outbreak came suddenly and had a significant impact, but the relevant response measures have been taken in a timely manner, and the fluctuation will not change the foundations that support a stable yuan in the long run."

When the epidemic retreats, the depreciation pressure on the yuan will ease, he said. But in the short term, the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday due to the epidemic will have a negative impact on exports in February, increase the trade deficit and prompt concerns about the yuan exchange rate.

The yuan has appreciated against the US dollar after the Phase One agreement between Washington and Beijing signaled an easing in the long-standing trade friction between the two largest economies in the world. On the last trading day before the Lunar New Year holiday, the onshore yuan was traded at 6.93 yuan per dollar, weaker than the 6.9292 yuan per dollar in the offshore market.

Monetary authorities have long reiterated, with the latest being in the two-page chapter of the China-US Phase One trade deal, that China would not devalue its currency for competitive advantages.

There was also consensus that the Chinese central bank has abandoned its direct intervention in the foreign exchange market for quite some time now. It is unlikely that the People's Bank of China, the central bank, will intervene in the market, even if the epidemic control measures continue for a longer time.

The PBOC will continue to let the market take a decisive role in setting the yuan rate, according to analysts, who believe the policy approach to keep the yuan rate basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level will not change during the fight against the epidemic.

Guan Tao, a professor of economics at Wuhan University and a former official of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the central bank needs to come out with plans to deal with exchange rate fluctuations, based on scenario analysis and pressure tests, to improve the macro and micro-prudential management framework on supervising cross-border capital flows, and avoid "excessive fluctuation of the foreign exchange market".

 

专家:人民币将继续保持稳定的走势


在春节长假结束后的三个交易日里,人民币汇率继续保持稳定,并没有远离1美元兑7元人民币的心理关口。在抗击新型冠状病毒疫情的斗争中,市场预计人民币币值将相对稳定。


周三,人民币兑美元汇率中间价(即每日交易参考汇率)下跌44个基点,至1美元兑6.9823元人民币。周三,在岸人民币汇率升至1美元兑6.98元人民币。


周二,人民币兑美元汇率下跌530个基点,至1美元兑6.9779元人民币,创下自2018年7月20日以来的最大盘中跌幅。美元指数升至97.95,为1月30日以来最高。


由于新型冠状病毒的流行增加了世界经济的下行风险,全球央行已经表达了对汇率波动的担忧,并表示愿意刺激经济增长。


周三,新加坡金融管理局(Monetary Authority of Singapore)表示,如果新型冠状病毒疫情导致经济走弱,新加坡有“足够的空间”让货币贬值。日本和澳大利亚的央行可能会采取类似的刺激措施来保护经济。可能的货币宽松政策,如进一步降息,将导致货币贬值,尤其是在亚洲。


招商证券首席分析师谢亚轩表示:“投资者应理性看待人民币短期波动。”“这次疫情的爆发是突然的,影响是非常大的,但是我们及时采取了相应的应对措施,这次波动不会改变人民币长期稳定的基础。”


他说,当疫情消退时,人民币的贬值压力将得到缓解。但在短期内,春节假期的延长将对2月份的出口产生负面影响,增加贸易逆差,并引发对人民币汇率的担忧。


在华盛顿和北京之间的第一阶段协议释放了世界上最大的两个经济体之间长期贸易摩擦缓解的信号后,人民币对美元升值。在春节假期前的最后一个交易日,在岸人民币兑美元汇率为6.93元,低于离岸市场的6.9292元。


货币当局长期以来一直重申,中国不会为了竞争优势而让人民币贬值。


人们还一致认为,中国央行已在相当长一段时间内放弃了对外汇市场的直接干预。即使疫情控制措施持续更长时间,中国央行(pboc)也不太可能干预市场。


分析人士表示,中国央行将继续让市场在人民币汇率形成过程中发挥决定性作用。他们认为,在抗击“非典”期间,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的政策取向不会改变。


关道,武汉大学经济学教授、前国家外汇管理局的官员说,中央银行需要推出计划应对汇率波动,基于场景分析和压力测试,改善宏观和微观审慎监管跨境资本流动管理框架,并避免“外汇市场的过度波动”。

 

原作者: Chen Jia 来自: china daily