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在与病毒相关的限制措施出台之际,亚洲银行家正准备迎接交易荒

2020-2-12 14:43

 

亚洲的银行家们正准备迎接一场交易荒,因为限制冠状病毒蔓延的努力已暂停了重要会议和路演。


银行家们表示,一些资产拍卖正面临延期或重新评估,而中国潜在的首次公开发行(ipo)的准备工作也在放缓。


“我们所有的交易都暂停了——无论是资本市场还是并购。什么事也没发生,”一家华尔街银行驻香港的资深投资银行家表示。


据四名知情人士透露,霸菱亚洲私募股权投资有限公司(Baring Private Equity Asia)预计将延长出售HCP的投标期限。HCP是一家总部位于上海的包装企业,价值约10亿美元。


他们说,这家总部位于香港的投资公司在农历新年之前就发出了招标通知,最初预计最早将于本月收到投标通知。


霸菱拒绝置评,HCP也没有回复记者的置评请求。


两名知情人士表示,总部位于新加坡、专营中药的医疗保健公司余仁生国际(Eu Yan Sang International)的销售程序可能会推迟。他们说,该公司曾希望自己的估值超过5亿美元。


上述知情人士说,出售该公司的计划正在被推迟,因为它的目标买家大多是中国人。该公司部分股权由新加坡政府投资机构淡马锡控股(Temasek Holdings)的一个子公司持有,其相当大一部分业务位于香港。


余仁生集团执行长Aaron Boey周二晚间在声明中回应路透提问时表示,公司对"传言"不予置评,并称在当前极具挑战性的时期,公司将专注于"执行我们的策略和提高股东价值"。


淡马锡拒绝置评。


“所有与中国相关的交易都取消了,这意味着第一季度可能会被淘汰。”欧洲和美国的买家也担心去亚洲旅行,”一位驻新加坡的银行家表示。


香港和新加坡的主要银行已限制员工前往中国内地的旅行,并允许员工在家办公,同时将其他人调往不同的办公地点。


一些国家已经减少或取消进出中国的航班,而新加坡和香港则要求从中国返回的人进行长达14天的隔离。


该病毒已造成1000多人死亡,并蔓延到24个国家和地区。


这些银行家拒绝透露姓名,因为交易是保密的。


“非典”的经验教训


Refinitiv的数据显示,2003年非典期间,与中国相关的ipo数量在上半年较2002年下降了25%,而并购数量则减少了一半。疫情于2003年7月结束。


自那以来,中国对这两个市场的影响都大得多,过去四年亚太地区55%的并购交易和66%的IPO交易都来自中国,而2003年这一比例分别为16%和50%。


银行家和律师们表示,ipo投资者担心的另一个因素是,由于这种流行病,一家公司的前景可能会恶化。


安理国际律师事务所(Allen & Overy)合伙人迈克尔•雅各布斯(Michael Jacobs)表示:“目前最严重的不利影响是,考虑到地区旅行中断,IPO候选人和报告会计师准备和审计财务报告的能力,以及顾问进行现场尽职调查的能力。”


路透社上周报道,凯雷投资集团(Carlyle Group Inc.)推迟了其德国特种化学品集团阿托科(Atotech)在美国的首次公开募股(IPO),原因是担心冠状病毒疫情会影响其估值。


虽然视频会议使召开会议变得比非典爆发期间更容易,但交易撮合者预计,未来几周内,旱情仍将持续。


“未来几周,在这种环境下,市场预计不会出现什么大的变化——无论是并购还是IPO。”我正试图专注于几乎没有中国参与的其它交易,”一位常驻香港的银行家表示。

 

Bankers in Asia are bracing for a deal drought as efforts to limit the spread of the coronavirus epidemic have put key meetings and roadshows on hold.

Several auctions of assets are facing delays or re-assessments and preparations for potential Chinese initial public offerings (IPOs) are also slowing, bankers said.

“All our deals are on hold now – capital markets or M&A. Nothing is happening,” said a Hong Kong-based senior investment banker with a Wall Street bank.

Baring Private Equity Asia is expected to extend a bidding deadline for the sale of HCP, a Shanghai-based packaging business valued at around US$1 billion, said four people with knowledge of the deal.

The Hong Kong-based investment firm sent out teasers before the Lunar New Year and was initially expecting bids to come in as soon as this month, they said.

Baring declined to comment and HCP did not respond to a query for comment.

The launch of a sale process of Eu Yan Sang International, a Singapore-based healthcare company specializing in Chinese medicine, is likely to be postponed, said two people aware of the matter. They said the company had hoped to value itself at more than US$500 million.

The sale of the company, partly owned by a unit of Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings and with a significant chunk of its business in Hong Kong, is being pushed back as most of its targeted buyers are Chinese, these people said.

Responding to a Reuters query, Eu Yan Sang’s Group chief executive Aaron Boey said in a statement late on Tuesday the company did not comment on “rumors”, adding it was focused on “executing our strategies and enhancing shareholder value” during these extremely challenging times.

Temasek declined comment.

“Any China-related deals are off, so that means Q1 is probably washed out. European and US buyers are also worried about traveling to Asia,” said a Singapore-based banker.

Major banks in Hong Kong and Singapore have restricted travel to mainland China and are allowing staff to work from home while moving others to different office locations.

A number of countries have reduced or canceled flights in and out of China while Singapore and Hong Kong have demanded people returning from China quarantine themselves for up to 14 days.

The virus has claimed more than 1,000 lives and has spread to 24 other countries and territories.

The bankers declined to be identified because the transactions are confidential.

Lessons from SARS

During the 2003 SARS epidemic, the volume of China-related IPOs fell 25 percent in the first half of the year compared with 2002, while M&A volumes halved, according to Refinitiv data. The epidemic ended in July 2003.

China has become a far bigger factor for both markets since then, accounting for 55 percent of M&A and 66 percent of IPO activity in Asia-Pacific over the past four years, compared with an average 16 percent and 50 percent in 2003.

Another factor that will concern investors in IPOs is the potential for a company’s outlook to worsen because of the epidemic, bankers and lawyers said.

“The most significant adverse impacts, as of today, are the ability of IPO candidates and the reporting accountants to get their financials prepared and audited and for advisers to conduct on-site due diligence given the disruption to regional travel,” said Michael Jacobs, a partner at law firm Allen & Overy.

Buyout firm Carlyle Group Inc. has delayed the US IPO of its German specialty chemicals group Atotech, concerned that the coronavirus outbreak would hurt its valuation, Reuters reported last week.

While video conferencing is making it easier to hold meetings than during the SARS outbreak, dealmakers expect the drought to last for weeks to come. 

“Over the next few weeks, nothing much is expected to come to the markets in this environment – on both the M&A and IPO side. I’m trying to focus on other deals where there’s hardly any China involvement,” said a banker based in Hong Kong.

 

来自: ejinsight