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Stock market rises for 7th consecutive day

2020-2-13 12:27

 

Chinese stocks rose for a seventh day on Wednesday, coinciding with the continuous decline in new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection for eight days on the Chinese mainland outside Hubei province. The development signaled an easing of investors' concerns over the viral outbreak's negative impact on economic growth, according to analysts.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.87 percent to close at 2926.9 points on Wednesday. The index has rebounded by over 6 percent after a sharp fall of nearly 8 percent on the first trading day after the extended Chinese New Year holiday. The ChiNext index, which tracks stock prices of startups on the Shen­zhen Stock Exchange, also rallied strongly by 2.8 percent on Wednesday, not only recovering earlier losses but also hitting a three-year high.

Market sentiment has been lifted by the swift and effective measures the government has taken to contain the spread of the disease and a series of supportive monetary and fiscal policies to minimize the risks to the economy caused by the epidemic, analysts said.

Investors' risk tolerance also seemed to be growing as many of them anticipated further policy easing and more liquidity in the market.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, has injected liquidity of at least 1.7 trillion yuan ($244 billion) in open market operations and offered 300 billion yuan in special relending to support businesses involved in fighting the contagion.

The Ministry of Finance also rolled out tax relief policies and offered loan interest subsidies to ease financial burdens on companies and individuals affected by the epidemic.

Li Xunlei, chief economist at Zhongtai Securities, said investors appear to be willing to take more risks as they are encouraged by monetary easing meant to contain the shock of the epidemic on the financial market and the economy.

"Investors widely expect that monetary policy is likely to enter a rate-cut cycle to offset the epidemic's impact. This will help the capital market retain ample liquidity and fuel upward momentum," Li said.

Liu Qiao, dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, said the A-share market seems to have adjusted for most of the negative impacts of the outbreak, and the market rebound indicated that investors think the outbreak is likely reaching its peak and its impact will be short-lived and limited.

On Wednesday, the stock market on the Chinese mainland saw a net inflow of overseas capital worth about 4 billion yuan, a signal of a gradually recovering sentiment by overseas investors.

Global asset manager Schroders said in a research note that it expects China to maintain an easing and accommodative monetary policy. The firm said it remained confident in the mid to long-term performance of the Chinese market despite rising short-term volatility.

While most analysts think the moment of extreme fear in the A-share market has passed, Chinese stocks will likely continue to see fluctuations as investors are still digesting the impact of the outbreak on corporate earnings and profits.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at Swiss bank UBS, said that credit defaults will likely rise as corporate cash flows will be hit. Consumption-related industries including retail, catering and tourism will bear the brunt of the epidemic while sectors such as healthcare, e-commerce and online videos and games will benefit, she added. 

 

中国股市周三连续第7天上涨,与此同时,中国内地湖北省以外地区连续8天新确诊的冠状病毒感染病例持续下降。分析人士说,这一进展表明,投资者对病毒疫情对经济增长的负面影响的担忧有所缓解。


周三,上证综合指数上涨0.87%,收于2926.9点。该指数在春节长假后的第一个交易日暴跌近8%,之后反弹超过6%。追踪深圳证券交易所(shenzhen - zhen stock Exchange)初创企业股价的创业板指数(ChiNext index)周三也强劲上涨2.8%,不仅收复了早些时候的失地,而且还触及三年高点。


分析师称,政府迅速采取有效措施控制疫情蔓延,并采取一系列支持性货币和财政政策,将疫情对经济造成的风险降至最低,这些都提振了市场人气。


投资者的风险承受能力似乎也在增强,因为许多人预计政策将进一步放松,市场流动性将增强。


中国人民银行已经在公开市场操作中注入了至少1.7万亿元人民币(约合2440亿美元)的流动性,并提供了3000亿元人民币的特别转贷,以支持参与抗击危机蔓延的企业。


财政部还推出了税收减免政策,并提供贷款利息补贴,以减轻受疫情影响的企业和个人的财务负担。


中泰证券(Zhongtai Securities)首席经济学家李迅雷表示,为了遏制疫情对金融市场和经济的冲击,中国采取了宽松的货币政策,这鼓励了投资者,他们似乎愿意承担更多风险。


投资者普遍预期,货币政策可能会进入降息周期,以抵消疫情的影响。这将有助于资本市场保持充足的流动性,并为上涨提供动力。”


北京大学光华管理学院院长刘桥表示,a股市场似乎已经对此次疫情的大部分负面影响进行了调整,市场反弹表明,投资者认为疫情可能会达到顶峰,其影响将是短暂和有限的。


周三,中国大陆股市的海外资本净流入约40亿元人民币,这是海外投资者信心逐渐恢复的信号。


全球资产管理公司施罗德(Schroders)在一份研究报告中称,预计中国将维持宽松和宽松的货币政策。该公司表示,尽管短期波动性上升,但对中国市场中长期表现仍有信心。


尽管多数分析师认为,a股市场极度恐慌的时刻已经过去,但由于投资者仍在消化此次疫情对企业盈利和利润的影响,中国股市可能会继续出现波动。


瑞银(UBS)首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,随着企业现金流受到冲击,信贷违约率可能会上升。她补充说,零售、餐饮和旅游等消费相关行业将首当其冲,而医疗、电子商务、网络视频和游戏等行业将受益。

 

来自: china daily