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全球股市因担忧而暴跌

2020-3-13 14:57

2020年3月12日,一名交易员在纽约证券交易所的美国运通期货市场交易大厅工作。【图片/机构】


经济学家们周四表示,华尔街近期的恐慌性抛售已经扰乱了全球金融市场,突显出新一轮经济衰退可能即将来临的风险。


他们呼吁各国政府采取果断措施,尽快控制新型冠状病毒全球疫情,并协调宏观调控,将疫情对经济的影响降到最低。


中国主要的上证综合指数周四下跌1.52%,收于2923.49点,而规模较小的深圳综合指数下跌2.31%,收于10941.01点。


其他亚太市场也感受到了压力。日本日经225指数下跌4.41%,澳大利亚S&P/ASX 200指数下跌7.36%。


此前,美国股市自周三以来陷入熊市。


截至纽约时间周四上午10点20分,道琼斯工业平均指数暴跌近8%,拖累该指数本月下跌近15%。


标准普尔500指数在周四开盘几分钟内下跌7%,导致美国股市自动停盘15分钟,这是本周第二次停盘。


截至发稿时,伦敦富时100指数和法国CAC 40指数均较前一交易日收盘下跌逾9%。


武汉科技大学金融与证券学院院长董登新表示,从牛市到熊市的转变“基本上是不可逆转的”,因为技术和基本面因素都表明,长达11年的美国股市牛市已经结束。


他说:“制造业面临收缩的风险,而油价暴跌将损害作为石油出口国的经济。”


雪,金融学教授在北京对外经济贸易大学说,如果美国股市陷入旷日持久和深度衰退,美国经济衰退的风险将成为现实,随着削减股票的价值会损害消费者支出和企业投资。


薛表示,美国经济面临的风险可能会导致全球供应链中断、需求减弱、金融市场对其他经济体的波动,并与这些经济体在国内面临的风险产生共鸣。


高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份报告称,随着艾滋病的蔓延,高收入经济体可能在未来几个月大幅放缓,美国经济将在第二季度陷入停滞,欧元区经济将出现收缩。


薛说:“全球经济的最终损失尚不可知,但在任何危机中保护世界经济的关键举措将是尽快控制全球病毒的爆发。”


全球外汇经纪公司FXTM全球外汇策略和市场研究主管贾米尔•艾哈迈德(Jameel Ahmad)表示,在抗击埃博拉病毒方面取得的积极进展,将有助于在短期内稳定美国股市。


“投资者希望看到一个英雄,而这个英雄不是美国的央行降息。他们希望看到的英雄是这个病毒已经被控制的好消息。”艾哈迈德说。


广东省粤凯证券首席经济学家李启林表示,主要经济体的政府合作抗击艾滋病及其经济影响非常重要。


李肇星风险概述,由于疫情冲击全球经济增长,不同的经济体可能会诉诸于竞争的宽松货币政策和汇率贬值,全球产业链,争夺更多的职位,导致不协调、无效的政策反应。


“在某种程度上,全球经济走向将取决于中国经济在未来几个月的表现,”武汉科技大学的董说。


董表示,作为世界第二大经济体,中国与发达经济体的经济周期并不同步,而且正逐渐从疫情中复苏,这可能有助于全球经济站稳脚跟。

 

A traders works on the trading floor of the Amex Futures market at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, on March 12, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]

 

The recent panicky sell-offs on Wall Street have roiled global financial markets, highlighting the risk that a new round of economic recession could be near, economists said on Thursday.

 

They called on governments to take resolute measures in bringing the novel coronavirus global outbreak under control as soon as possible, as well as to coordinate macro-adjustments to minimize the economic impact of the pandemic.

 

China's key Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.52 percent to close at 2,923.49 points on Thursday, while the smaller Shenzhen index shed 2.31 percent to close at 10,941.01 points.

 

Other Asia-Pacific markets also felt the pressure. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 4.41 percent, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 slumped 7.36 percent.

 

This came after stocks in the United States fell into bear market territory since Wednesday.

 

As of 10:20 am Thursday in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had plunged nearly 8 percent, dragging down the index nearly 15 percent this month.

 

The S&P 500 dropped by 7 percent in the opening minutes of Thursday's trading and triggered an automatic 15-minute halt to US stock trading, the second time this week.

 

London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 were both trading more than 9 percent lower than the close of the previous session as of press time.

 

Dong Dengxin, director of the Finance and Securities Institute at Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said the switch from bull to bear market is "basically irreversible", as both technical and fundamental factors have pointed to the end of the 11-year-long US stock bull run.

 

"The manufacturing sector is facing the risk of contraction, while the plunge in oil prices will hurt the economy as an oil exporter," Dong said.

 

Xue Yi, a professor of finance at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said if US stocks are caught in a protracted and deep decline, the risk of recession in the US economy will become real, as the slashed value of stocks will hurt consumer spending and later corporate investment.

 

The risks faced by the US economy could lead to disruption to the global supply chain, weaker demand, financial market fluctuations to other economies, and resonate with risks faced by those economies domestically, Xue said.

 

A Goldman Sachs report said that as the epidemic grows, higher-income economies may slow sharply in the coming months, with stagnation in the US and contraction in the euro area in the second quarter.

 

"The ultimate loss for the global economy is yet to be known, but the key move to shield the world economy with any crisis will be bringing the global virus outbreak under control as soon as possible," Xue said.

 

Positive developments in combating the virus will help stabilize US stocks in the near term, said Jameel Ahmad, global head of currency strategy and market research at global foreign exchange broker FXTM.

 

"Investors want to see a hero, and this hero isn't the central bank in the US cutting interest rates. The hero they want to see is the good news that this virus has now been controlled," Ahmad said.

 

Li Qilin, chief economist at Guangdong province-based Yuekai Securities, said it is important for governments in major economies to cooperate in combating the epidemic and its economic impact.

 

Li outlined the risk that as the epidemic hits global growth, different economies may resort to competitive monetary easing and exchange rate depreciation, and scramble for more positions in the global industrial chain, leading to uncoordinated and ineffective policy reactions.

 

"Where the global economy is heading for, to some extent, will rely on how the Chinese economy performs in the coming months," said Dong at Wuhan University of Science and Technology.

 

As the world's second-largest economy has an unsynchronized economic cycle with developed economies and is gradually recovering from the epidemic, it may help the global economy gain footing, Dong said.

 

原作者: Zhou Lanxu and Scott Reeves 来自: china daily