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分析公司表示,比特币价格目前稳定,但未来不确定

2020-3-19 15:22

 

chainalysis发布了2020年3月BTC市场的报告。根据区块链和密码分析公司的数据,自3月9日以来,交易所经历了大量的比特币流入,仅在3月13日就接收了近31.9万比特币。


然而,在3月12日至13日期间,被送到交易所出售的比特币几乎是日均交易量的9倍,导致比特币价格暴跌至3000多美元。这是BTC过去七年来最大的单日跌幅。

 

比特币的价格目前稳定了吗?


链分析显示,虽然密码流入的数量仍然很高,是每日平均水平的两倍,但比特币的价格目前似乎已经稳定下来。


“进入交易所的过剩比特币大部分已经售出,供应过剩最严重的时期似乎已经结束。”


该公司提供了一些可能的解释,以稳定价格后,如此动荡的时期。尽管10到1000比特币之间的转账占了比特币通过交易所的流量的70%,chainalysis表示,比特币的总数量不足以造成持久的损害:


“大多数可用的比特币并没有被兑换成现金,这表明大多数比特币交易者乐于持有。”过去8天发送到交易所的比特币数量比平均水平高出71.2万,是前所未有的。但这71.2万只是可用比特币的5%(所有开采的比特币减去所有丢失的比特币)。”


加密市场未来的混乱


随着美国各地的零售企业纷纷倒闭,越来越多的公司被迫让员工在家工作,所有金融市场的未来都充满了不确定性。为了防止冠状病毒的传播,国际旅行限制每天都在变化,这导致了世界范围内密码事件的推迟或取消。


尽管存在这种不确定性,chainalysis仍计划使用传统指标来监控比特币:


“很难预测比特币市场的下一步走向。然而,外汇流入量的大幅增加已被证明是波动性增加的一个良好指标,因此我们建议密切关注流向交易所的资金量。我们还预计,与散户交易所用户不同,专业交易员将继续推动事件的发展,因为他们的交易量要大得多。”

 

Chainalysis posted their report for the BTC market for March 2020. According to the blockchain and crypto analytics firm, exchanges have experienced a huge inflow of BTC since March 9, receiving nearly 319,000 of the cryptocurrency on March 13 alone. 

 

However, between March 12-13, almost nine times the average daily amount of Bitcoin was sent to exchanges to be sold, causing the price to plummet to $3,000s. This represented BTC’s biggest daily drop in the last seven years.

 

Has the price of Bitcoin stabilized for now?

 

Though the volume of crypto inflow remains high — twice the daily average — according to Chainalysis, the price of BTC appears to have stabilized for the moment. 

 

“The majority of excess bitcoin arriving at exchanges has been sold, and the worst of the oversupply appears to be finished for now.”

 

The firm offers some possible explanations for the price leveling out after such a tumultuous period. Though transfers between 10 and 1,000 BTC accounted for 70% of the flow of the cryptocurrency through exchanges, Chainalysis says the overall amount of BTC wasn’t enough to do lasting damage:

 

“The majority of available bitcoin was not cashed out, suggesting that most bitcoiners are happy to hold. At 712,000 more than average, the amount of bitcoin sent to exchanges in the last eight days is unprecedented. But this extra 712,000 represents just 5% of available bitcoin (all mined bitcoin minus all lost bitcoin).”

 

Future disruptions to the crypto market

 

With retail businesses shutting down across the United States and more companies being forced to let their employees work from home, the future of all financial markets is uncertain. International travel restrictions to combat the spread of the coronavirus continue to change on a daily basis, which has delayed or cancelled crypto events worldwide.

 

Despite this uncertainty, Chainalysis still plans to use traditional indicators to monitor Bitcoin:

 

“It’s hard to predict where the bitcoin market will go next. However, large increases in exchange inflows have proven to be a good indicator of increased volatility, so we recommend keeping an eye on the amount being transferred to exchanges. We also expect that professional traders will continue to drive events, as opposed to retail exchange users, simply because they are responsible for much larger volumes.”

 

原作者: Turner Wright 来自: cointelegraph