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美国和欧洲的经济学家预测,由于COVID-19的影响,经济将陷入衰退

2020-3-20 12:28

2020年3月19日,美国纽约市爆发冠状病毒病(cod -19)期间,人们走过几乎空无一人的时代广场。【图片/机构】


芝加哥——美国和欧洲的经济学家预测,COVID-19的爆发将导致经济衰退。


芝加哥大学布斯商学院(University of Chicago's Booth School of Business)全球市场研究计划(Initiative on Global Markets)公布了74位经济学家关于大衰退可能性的研究结果。


大多数受访者认为可能会出现经济衰退,欧洲专家的这一比例为82%,而美国专家的这一比例为62%。


“可能出现大幅放缓;它是否会持续到足以上升到衰退的程度,目前还不清楚,”芝加哥大学布斯商学院的阿尼尔•卡什亚普(Anil Kashyap)评论道。


巴黎经济学院(Paris School of Economics)的让-皮埃尔•达努耶(Jean-Pierre danthy)确信,两个季度将出现负增长,但进一步的发展明显取决于政策反应。


斯坦福大学(Stanford University)的肯尼斯•贾德(Kenneth Judd)是少数几个不同意大衰退即将来临的人之一。


“如果它像普通的流感,那么经济应该会很快恢复。COVID-19只会威胁到陈旧而无力的经济扩张,”贾德说。


世卫组织的大多数成员认为,大流行可能导致严重的经济衰退,其中一些人指出,为控制疫情而采取的措施所产生的影响已经扰乱了经济活动。


博科尼大学的埃琳娜•卡莱蒂说:“传染率比死亡率本身更令人担忧,因为它会使整个经济陷入停滞,以控制对医疗系统的影响。”


Einaudi经济与金融研究所的Luigi Guiso补充道,遏制利差扩大需要"完全停止经济活动",这是"重大的供应冲击"。


都柏林圣三一学院的Patrick Honohan说:“即使死亡率很低,那也是因为遏制措施很有效,这将对总供求产生不利影响。”


麻省理工学院的Richard Schmalensee说:“‘Major’可能有点太强烈了,但是许多国家正在采取的预防措施将会产生重大的破坏性影响。”


过去两周,全球股市大幅下跌。美国股市触发了四次停牌,以阻止恐慌性抛售;欧洲股市继续暴跌,几乎没有收复失地;随着投资者纷纷囤积避险资产,全球主要货币兑美元大幅贬值。


随着疫情高峰期的结束,中国开始恢复工作和生产,而在世界其他地方,随着意大利、西班牙和美国等国确诊病例激增,大多数公司现在才开始实施在家工作的政策。

 

People walk through a nearly empty Times Square, during the outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in New York City, US, March 19, 2020. [Photo/Agencies]

 

CHICAGO - US and European economists are predicting a recession as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

The Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business published the results of 74 economists on the likelihood of a major recession.

 

A majority of respondents agreed a recession is likely, with a bigger 82-percent majority among European experts than a 62-percent among US experts.

 

"A sharp slowdown is likely; whether it will be persistent enough to rise to the level of a recession is not clear yet," commented Anil Kashyap of Chicago Booth.

 

Jean-Pierre Danthine of the Paris School of Economics is certain two quarters would register negative growth but further developments notably depends on policy reactions.

 

Stanford University's Kenneth Judd was among the few to disagree that a major recession is on the horizon.

 

"If it is like ordinary flu, then (the) economy should quickly recover. COVID-19 only threatens old and feeble economic expansions," said Judd.

 

Among the majority who agreed a major recession is a likely consequence of the pandemic, several note the impact of the measures taken to contain the outbreak have already disrupted economic activities.

 

"The contagion rate worries more than the mortality rate itself as it shuts down the whole economy to contain effects on the health system," said Elena Carletti of Bocconi University.

 

Stemming the spread requires "stopping economic activity altogether," which is "a major supply shock," added Luigi Guiso of the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance.

 

"Even if (the) death rate is low, it will be because containment has been effective, and that will adversely affect aggregate supply and demand," said Patrick Honohan of Trinity College Dublin.

 

Richard Schmalensee at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said, "'Major' might be a bit too strong, but the precautionary measures being taken in many countries will have a significant disruptive effect."

 

Global stock markets have suffered steep losses during the past two weeks. US stocks triggered four circuit brakers to halt panic selling, European stock continued to plunge with little losses recovered, and major world currencies depreciated severely against the US dollar as investors flew to stockpile safe haven assets.

 

While China starts to resume work and production with the peak of the outbreak having passed, elsewhere in the world a majority of companies are only now implementing work-from-home policies amid a surge in confirmed cases in such countries as Italy, Spain and the United States.

 

来自: xinhua