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华尔街迎来又一个惨淡的一周

2020-3-23 13:23

 

据路透社报道,华尔街分析师和投资经理预计,由于对冠状病毒的担忧,美国市场将迎来艰难的一周。


股市期货大幅下跌,美国国债期货周日上涨,预示未来一周将出现更多“避险”交易。


华尔街分析师和投资经理表示,尽管过去几周股价出现了历史性暴跌,但很难预测何时见底。


"在市场转好之前,我们需要稳定一些消息,"唐宁街副首席投资长Carol Schleif表示。


她说,冠状病毒在纽约市区的蔓延可能加剧了华尔街的焦虑。


周末期间,那里的病例激增,市长比尔德布拉西奥(Bill de Blasio)说,医院工作人员还有10天就会用完关键的物资。


随着流感的蔓延,美国股市已较2月中旬的峰值下跌逾30%,即便是债券市场最安全的地区也面临流动性压力,这是自2008年金融危机以来最严重的市场动荡。


就在周日晚间期货开盘后不久,标准普尔500指数下跌5%,触及其下限,油价下跌,美国国债期货大幅上涨。


经济活动的下滑显然将对美国经济和企业利润产生严重影响,但市场策略师和经济学家表示,很难预测影响的严重程度。


三个主要因素是:联邦政府将向经济注入多少援助,援助计划的结构将有多有效,以及美国新病例数量开始下降需要多长时间——也被称为“拉平冠状病毒曲线”。


周日,美国财政部长史蒂文·姆钦表示,国会即将敲定一项救济方案,向家庭一次性支付3000美元,并向市场提供另外4万亿美元来支持经济。


但目前还不清楚这样的措施何时可能获得通过,因为议员们对细节存在争议。周日晚间,一项法案未能通过参议院的第一道程序障碍。


Bruderman Asset Management首席市场策略师Oliver Pursche表示,本周将公布的经济数据,包括初请失业金人数、IHS Markit制造业调查和消费者信心等,将有助于决定形势的走向。


但Pursche强调,缺乏救援计划将进一步打击投资者信心。


分析师表示,市场只是反映了现实世界的困境。


"这是一个生物学事件," Edward Jones投资策略师Nela Richardson表示。“市场只是全球大流行的一个症状。”

 

Wall Street analysts and investment managers expect another rough week for US markets due to coronavirus fears, Reuters reports.

Stock-market futures fell sharply and Treasury-bond futures rose on Sunday, signaling more “flight-to-safety” trades in the week ahead.

Despite the historic plunge in share prices over the past few weeks, it is difficult to predict a bottom, Wall Street analysts and investment managers said.

“We need to get some stabilization in news flow before the markets turn,” said Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment officer at Abbot Downing.

The spread of coronavirus across the greater New York City area may be feeding into anxiety on Wall Street, she said.

Cases there skyrocketed over the weekend, with Mayor Bill de Blasio saying hospital workers are 10 days away from running out of crucial supplies.

US stocks have already fallen more than 30 percent from their mid-February peak as the pandemic has spread, with even the safest areas of the bond market experiencing liquidity stress in a market rout not seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

Just after futures opened on Sunday night, S&P 500 e-minis fell 5 percent to hit their lower limit, oil prices dropped and Treasury bond futures rose sharply.

The decline in economic activity will obviously have a severe impact on the US economy and corporate profits, but market strategists and economists said it is difficult to predict just how severe.

Three major factors are how much aid the federal government will inject into the economy, how effective the aid package’s structure will be and how long it takes for the number of new cases to start declining in the United States – also known as “flattening the coronavirus curve”.

On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Congress was close to finalizing a relief package that would offer families a one-time US$3,000 payment and markets another US$4 trillion to support the economy.

But it was not clear when such a measure might pass, as lawmakers argued about the particulars. A bill failed to get through the first procedural hurdle in the Senate on Sunday night.

Economic data set to be released this week, including jobless claims, IHS Markit’s manufacturing survey and consumer sentiment, will help determine where things stand, said Oliver Pursche, chief market strategist at Bruderman Asset Management in New York.

But Pursche stressed that the absence of a relief package will further sour investor sentiment.

The market is simply reflecting distress in the real world, analysts said.

“This is a biological event,” said Nela Richardson, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis. “The market is a mere symptom of the global pandemic.”

 

来自: ejinsight