找回密码
 立即注册
首页 Financial China 查看内容
  • QQ空间

Forex swaps to reduce depreciation pressure on Chinese currency

2020-3-24 12:14

 

Foreign exchange swaps are expected to ease depreciation pressure on the yuan and bolster liquidity amid a raft of measures being considered by China and other global counterparts to ensure financial stability, analysts said on Monday.

Swap lines have already been set up among the world's six major central banks-the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. It is a coordinated action to further enhance the provision of US dollar liquidity in the global financial market and ease funding strains.

The People's Bank of China, the Chinese central bank, has not yet joined the dollar swap lines. At a PBOC media conference on Sunday, some journalists asked whether the central bank would consider such an arrangement in the future, but officials did not provide any clear answers.

However, the PBOC has exchanged opinion on monetary policy with the US Federal Reserve, since the early stages of the novel coronavirus outbreak. It will continually support multilateral organizations, such as G20 and the International Monetary Fund, to strengthen international coordination on macro policies and financial relief, said Chen Yulu, vice-governor of the PBOC.

Economists have termed the foreign exchange swaps as the most important arrangement till now to tame market turmoil, even as global financial conditions are tightening. The swap lines, a wide cooperative action among major central banks, were seen as a backstop at the very top or core of the international monetary system.

The return of swap lines, which had last sprung up during the 2008 financial crisis, will inject dollar liquidity, which can slow down the rise, or push down the dollar index. Thus, the depreciation pressure on the yuan versus the greenback will be eased, said Xie Yaxuan, chief analyst at China Merchants Securities.

From Monday to at least the end of April, six central banks under the swap mechanism agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. The swap lines are standing facilities that serve as an important liquidity backstop, according to a statement on the Fed's website.

The swap lines could also help mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses, both domestically and abroad, the US central bank said.

Financial stress has fueled investors' hunt for safety assets as the coronavirus outbreak has disrupted the global capital market. Panic buying of US dollars as a reserve currency has sharply lifted the dollar index and the cost of borrowing dollars for other currencies in foreign-exchange swap markets has hit levels not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Against the stronger US dollar, the euro dropped 6.6 percent from March 10 to Thursday, and the pound sterling weakened by 12.5 percent toward its lowest level since 1985, surpassing the lows seen during the historic Brexit vote in June 2016. Currencies in the emerging market declined by 3 percent, while the yuan depreciated by 2 percent, according to data from the PBOC.

Xuan Changneng, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said on Sunday that the liquidity crunch of US-dollar denominated assets in the global market has led to the soaring US index, which is a technical rise rather than an economic fundamentals-driven surge.

"The yuan has no significant depreciation basis," he said. A more flexible exchange rate of the yuan will better prevent cross-border capital flow risks, he said.

Li Qilin, chief analyst at Yuekai Securities, said the dollar liquidity stress has a limited impact on China's financial market and the risks are under control, although the yields on some interest rate bonds sharply rose last week, given the weak risk appetite.

"Central banks in the Asia-Pacific region have followed or will follow the Fed's move by ensuring that they have done what they can to add liquidity to the financial system and work to avoid the grinding to a halt of funding markets," said Daniel Gerard, senior multi asset strategist at State Street Global Markets.

"If banks can show that their actions will restore lending and the mechanics of banking, then investors can work within the framework of markets to find a floor to asset values."

 

分析师周一表示,在中国和全球其他国家考虑采取一系列措施以确保金融稳定之际,外汇掉期交易预计将缓解人民币的贬值压力,并增强流动性。


全球六大央行——美联储、加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行和瑞士央行——已经设立了货币互换额度。这是一项协调行动,旨在进一步增加全球金融市场对美元流动性的供应,缓解资金紧张。


中国央行中国人民银行(pboc)尚未加入美元互换额度。在周日的中国人民银行媒体会议上,一些记者问央行是否会在未来考虑这样的安排,但官员们没有提供任何明确的答案。


然而,自新型冠状病毒爆发的早期阶段以来,中国央行已与美联储(fed)就货币政策交换了意见。中国人民银行副行长陈裕禄表示,中国将继续支持G20、国际货币基金组织等多边组织加强宏观政策和国际金融救援协调。


在全球金融环境趋紧之际,经济学家将外汇掉期交易称为迄今为止抑制市场动荡的最重要安排。互换额度是主要央行之间的广泛合作行动,被视为国际货币体系最高层或核心的后盾。


互换额度的回归将注入美元流动性,从而减缓美元升值速度,或压低美元指数。互换额度上一次出现是在2008年金融危机期间。招商证券(China Merchants Securities)首席分析师谢亚轩表示,人民币兑美元的贬值压力将因此得到缓解。


从周一到至少4月底,根据互换机制,6家央行同意将7天期操作的频率从每周一次提高至每日一次。根据美联储网站上的一份声明,互换额度是作为重要流动性后盾的固定工具。


美联储表示,互换额度还可能有助于减轻此类压力对国内外家庭和企业信贷供应的影响。


在冠状病毒爆发扰乱全球资本市场之际,金融压力促使投资者寻找安全资产。美元作为储备货币的恐慌性购买大幅推高了美元指数,而在外汇掉期市场以其他货币借入美元的成本达到了2008年全球金融危机以来的最高水平。


从3月10日到周四,欧元兑强势美元下跌6.6%,英镑兑美元下跌12.5%,跌至1985年以来的最低水平,超过了2016年6月历史性的英国退欧公投期间的低点。根据中国人民银行的数据,新兴市场的货币贬值了3%,而人民币贬值了2%。


中国国家外汇管理局(safe)副局长宣昌能周日表示,全球市场美元计价资产的流动性紧缩,导致美国股指飙升,这是技术层面的上涨,而非经济基本面驱动的上涨。


“人民币没有明显的贬值基础,”他说。他说,更灵活的人民币汇率将更好地防范跨境资本流动风险。


悦凯证券(Yuekai Securities)首席分析师李启林表示,美元流动性压力对中国金融市场的影响有限,风险得到了控制,尽管一些利率债券的收益率上周大幅上升,原因是投资者的风险偏好较弱。


“中央银行在亚太地区之后或将跟随美联储的行动,确保他们所做的可以增加金融系统的流动性和工作,以避免融资市场的停顿下来,”丹尼尔。杰拉德说高级多道富银行全球市场策略师资产。


“如果银行能够证明,它们的行动将恢复放贷和银行业的机制,那么投资者就可以在市场框架内寻找资产价值的底线。”

 

原作者: Chen Jia 来自: china daily