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美国国会在财政刺激法案上陷入僵局,美联储推出无限制的量化宽松政策

2020-3-24 14:00

图为2020年3月23日在美国华盛顿特区发行的美元纸币。美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,Fed)周一宣布一项无限制购买美国公债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的计划,以帮助市场在covid19的不确定性下更有效地运作。(新华社/刘杰)


华盛顿,3月23日(新华社)——美国联邦储备委员会周一宣布了一项购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的计划,不限制对市场的支持。


尽管投资者担心美联储的弹药即将耗尽,但专家们认为,必须尽快出台强有力且有针对性的财政政策,以防止即将到来的衰退演变为萧条。


无限的量化宽松政策


美联储在一份声明中说周一股市开盘之前,将继续购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券”的数量需要支持平滑市场运作和有效的货币政策的传播更广泛的金融环境,“将其资产购买计划没有数值上限。


本月稍早,美联储承诺在未来数月至少买进5,000亿美元美国公债,并至少买进2,000亿美元机构抵押贷款支持证券(mbs)。


美联储的最新举措表明,美联储准备采取尽可能多的必要行动,帮助美国经济抵御冠状病毒的爆发。


美联储在声明中说:“冠状病毒大流行正在美国和世界各地造成巨大的困难,”并补充说,美国经济将面临“严重的破坏”。


日本央行表示:“必须在公共和私人部门采取积极措施,将损失限制在就业和收入方面,并在中断减弱后推动经济迅速复苏。”


MUFG Union Bank首席金融分析师Chris Rupkey在接受CNBC采访时表示,"美联储的政策正转至更高的速度,以帮助支撑目前看似自由落体式下滑的经济。"


"央行正在转变角色,不再只是最后的贷款人,而是最后的买家," Rupkey称。“不要问他们会买多少,这真的是无限的量化宽松。”


在另一份声明中,美联储周一还宣布了新的措施,为美国家庭和企业的信贷流动提供支持,比如在购买机构抵押贷款支持证券(mbs)时,包括购买机构抵押贷款支持证券(mbs)。


除了购买更多债券,也就是所谓的“量化宽松”政策,美联储还将通过建立新的项目,提供高达3000亿美元的新资金,向雇主、消费者和企业提供信贷。


它将建立两个机构,一级市场企业信贷安排(PMCCF)和二级市场企业信贷安排(SMCCF),以支持对大型雇主的信贷,并建立另一个机构,定期资产支持证券贷款安排(TALF),以支持对消费者和企业的信贷流动。


宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院(Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania)金融学助理教授克里斯塔•施瓦茨(Krista Schwarz)对新华社表示,美联储在“以一切可能的方式”应对货币政策方面“极具创造力和速度”。


施瓦茨说:“美联储的紧急措施是通过直接参与和向特定细分市场(在当前环境下,在获得流动性方面面临最大挑战的市场)提供贷款,并将融资范围扩大到不同类型的市场参与者,从而缩短了市场中介的崩溃过程。”


弹药?


美联储的行动是一系列大胆举措中的最新举措,这些举措旨在支持经济,目前人们对“金融危机”爆发的担忧日益加剧。在一个月内的第二次紧急降息中,中国央行最近将基准利率下调了整整一个百分点,至接近零的水平。


中国央行还表示,将建立一个商业票据融资机制,以支持信贷流向家庭和企业。


它宣布建立临时美元流动性安排,并与几家央行加强美元流动性互换额度安排,以放宽获取美元的渠道。


美联储周五表示,扩大了对货币市场共同基金的支持计划,以“增强关键的州和市货币市场的流动性和功能”。


俄勒冈大学(University of Oregon)教授、长期关注美联储的蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)周日晚间在一篇博客文章中写道,“美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)和他的同事们在两周的时间里拿出了工具,这是他们在上一次危机期间花了多年时间才形成的。”

"本周数据将开始赶上现实,情况将会很糟糕," Duy称。“我还没有看到金融市场会很快稳定下来的理由。”


由于投资者担心美联储刺激经济的选择越来越少,施瓦茨对新华社说,美联储已经动用了很多弹药,“但我还不能说它已经没有弹药了。”


她表示:“美联储总是可以创造更多工具,针对更多细分市场或特定类型的市场参与者,他们可以通过前瞻性指引采取更积极的行动。”


尽管如此,Duy表示,美联储无法独自完成这项工作,需要财政政策的支持。


施瓦茨表示,美联储的行动速度总是比国会快,但"国会必须提供只有立法机构才能提供的那种有针对性的财政刺激,这一点很重要。"


经济刺激计划陷入僵局


周日晚间,针对冠状病毒爆发的1.6万亿美元救助计划未能在参议院一项关键的程序性投票中获得足够的票数,周一下午也未能继续进行,原因是民主党议员对救助企业等措施表示不满。


参议院多数党领袖、来自肯塔基州的共和党人麦康奈尔批评民主党人以“愤世嫉俗的党派偏见”阻挠救助计划,并提出一些“不相关的要求”。


美国国务卿努钦说,经济救助计划将包括支持小企业和美国工薪阶层的措施。他周一上午告诉CNBC,“我们在这项法案的大部分内容上都得到了两党的大力支持。”


美联储资深观察人士Duy表示,他担心"尽管第一轮财政努力可能暂时安抚了我们,但国会和政府尚未认真应对不断演变的经济形势。"


他说:“美国经济的突然停止导致失业率飙升。据美国劳工统计局(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)的数据,截至3月14日当周,美国首次申请失业救济人数激增7万人,至28.1万人,为两年半来的最高水平。


Duy称,本周初请失业金人数可能超过200万,此前美国各州和地方政府开始下令关闭除基本服务外的所有服务。


《华尔街日报》(the Wall Street Journal)援引乔治亚州立大学(Georgia State University)经济预测中心(Economic Forecasting Center)主任拉吉夫•达万(Rajeev Dhawan)的话说,裁员将主要集中在餐饮业、酒店业、航空业和房地产业。


达万估计,美国经济在未来几个月里可能会失去600万个就业机会,到今年年底可能会失去800万个就业机会。


这种冠状病毒继续在全国迅速蔓延,截至下午7点,已确诊病例4.3万余例,死亡530余人。根据约翰霍普金斯大学系统科学与工程中心开发的数据跟踪工具,美国东部时间周一。


推荐的财政刺激方案参议院“太小,过于依赖现有的工具来减轻损害家庭财务状况和避免商业浪潮闭包将威胁经济反弹的能力今年晚些时候,“Duy说他的担忧。


“这不仅仅是另一次衰退;我们需要更大、更新的工具来减轻损害,”他说。

 

 

Photo taken on March 23, 2020 shows U.S. dollar banknotes in Washington D.C., the United States. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced on Monday a plan to purchase U.S. treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities with no limit to help markets function more efficiently amid COVID-19 uncertainty. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

 

by Xiong Maoling, Gao Pan

 

WASHINGTON, March 23 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve on Monday announced a plan to purchase U.S. treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities with no limit to support markets, an aggressive move to prop up the economy amid coronavirus uncertainty.

 

While investors fear the central bank is running out of ammunition, experts believe that strong and targeted fiscal policies must be rolled out as soon as possible to prevent a looming recession from turning into a depression.

 

UNLIMITED QE

 

The Fed said in a statement before the stock market opened Monday that it will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities "in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions," putting no numerical cap on its asset purchase program.

 

Earlier this month, the central bank pledged to buy at least 500 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasuries and at least 200 billion dollars in agency mortgage-backed securities over the coming months.

 

The Fed's latest move signaled that the central bank is prepared to act as much as necessary to help the U.S. economy weather the coronavirus outbreak.

 

"The coronavirus pandemic is causing tremendous hardship across the United States and around the world," the Fed said in the statement, adding that the U.S. economy will face "severe disruptions."

 

"Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate," said the central bank.

 

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, was quoted by CNBC as saying "Fed policy is shifting into a higher gear to try to help support the economy which looks like it is in freefall at the moment."

 

"The central bank is shifting from being not just the lender of last resort, but now it is the buyer of last resort," Rupkey said. "Don't ask how much they will buy, this is truly QE (quantitative easing) infinity."

 

In a separate statement, the Fed on Monday also announced new measures to provide support for the flow of credit to American families and businesses, such as including purchase of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities in its agency mortgage-backed security purchases.

 

In addition to buying more bonds, a policy known as "quantitative easing," the Fed will also provide up to 300 billion dollars in new financing to flow of credit to employers, consumers, and businesses by establishing new programs.

 

It will establish two facilities, the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF), to support credit to large employers, and set up another facility, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), to support the flow of credit to consumers and businesses.

 

Krista Schwarz, an assistant professor of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told Xinhua that the Fed has been "extremely creative and quick" in responding with monetary policy "in all possible ways."

 

"The Fed's emergency facilities are short-circuiting the breakdown in market intermediation by directly participating in and lending to specific market segments (those most challenged in obtaining liquidity in today's environment), and broadening the reach of funding to different types of market participants," Schwarz said.

 

OUT OF AMMUNITION?

 

The Fed's action was the latest in a series of bold moves to support the economy amid mounting fears over the COVID-19 outbreak. In a second emergency cut within a month, the central bank recently trimmed its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point to near zero.

 

The central bank also said that it will establish a Commercial Paper Funding Facility to support the flow of credit to households and businesses.

 

It announced the establishment of temporary U.S. dollar liquidity arrangements and the enhancement of U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements with several central banks to ease access to dollars.

 

The Fed said on Friday that it expanded its program backing money market mutual funds to "enhance the liquidity and functioning of crucial state and municipal money markets."

 

Tim Duy, a professor with the University of Oregon and long-time Fed watcher, wrote in a blog post on Sunday night that "Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues brought out tools over a two-week span that took years to develop during the last crisis."

 

"This week the data will start to catch up to reality and it's going to be ugly," Duy said. "I have yet to see reason to expect financial markets will stabilize anytime soon."

 

As investors fear that the central bank is running out of options to stimulate the economy, Schwarz told Xinhua the Fed has used a lot of its ammunition, "but I would not yet say it is out of ammunition."

 

"The Fed could always create more facilities to target additional market segments or reach specific types of market participants, and they could act more aggressively with forward guidance," she said.

 

Despite that, the Fed cannot do this job alone and needs the support of fiscal policy, Duy said.

 

Schwarz said it will always be the case that the Fed can act more quickly than Congress, but "it is important for Congress to provide the kinds of targeted fiscal stimulus that only legislation can offer."

 

DEADLOCK ON STIMULUS BILL

 

A 1.6-trillion-dollar funding package in response to the coronavirus outbreak did not get enough votes in a key Senate procedural vote Sunday evening, and it failed to proceed again on Monday afternoon, as Democratic lawmakers expressed discontent with measures to bail out corporates, among other things.

 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, criticized Democrats for blocking the package with "cynical partisanship" and making a number of "unrelated demands."

 

U.S. Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the economic relief package will include measures to support small businesses and working Americans. He told CNBC on Monday morning that "we have enormous bipartisan support on most of this bill."

 

Duy, the veteran Fed watcher, said he fears that "while we may be temporarily appeased by the initial round of fiscal efforts, Congress and the administration have yet to come to grips with the evolving economic situation."

 

"The sudden stop of the U.S. economy is sending unemployment soaring," he said. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of initial jobless claims in the country spiked by 70,000 to 281,000 in the week ending March 14, the highest level in two and a half years.

 

Initial claims may exceed 2 million this week after state and local governments around the nation began ordering shutdowns of everything except essential services, Duy said.

 

Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal as saying that the job losses will be heavily concentrated in restaurants, hotels, airlines and real estate industries.

 

Dhawan estimated that the U.S. economy could lose 6 million jobs in the coming months and 8 million by the end of the year.

 

The coronavirus continues to spread rapidly across the nation, with more than 43,000 confirmed cases and over 530 deaths reported as of 7 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time on Monday, according to data tracking tool developed by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University.

 

The fiscal package recommended by the Senate is "both too small and too reliant on existing tools to alleviate the damage to household finances and stave off a wave of business closures that would threaten the ability of the economy to bounce back later this year," Duy said of his concerns.

 

"This is not just another recession; we need bigger and newer tools to mitigate the damage," he said. 

 

原作者: 熊茂玲,高盼 来自: xinhua