找回密码
 立即注册
首页 Financial China 查看内容
  • QQ空间

资产管理公司看到了坏账激增带来的横财

2020-3-25 15:14

A teller counts cash at a bank branch in Hangzhou, capital of East China's Zhejiang province. [Photo by Hu Jianhuan/For China Daily]

 

Asset management companies are likely to receive a windfall from the bad loan surge in China, triggered by the novel coronavirus outbreak, despite the ongoing efforts to boost financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, analysts said.

 

"Based on relatively prudential assumptions, we estimate that the epidemic will trigger a 250-billionyuan ($35.33 billion) increase in the nonperforming loans of commercial banks," said Liao Zhiming, chief banking analyst at Tianfeng Securities Co.

 

Asset quality is expected to worsen for SMEs in the sectors badly hit by the epidemic, such as catering, tourism and transportation, Liao said in a report on Feb 13.

 

The nonperforming loan ratio of personal loans for small business owners may increase significantly in the hard-hit sectors. The asset quality of credit card debt and consumer loans may also suffer in the short term in the regions taking a heavy blow from the epidemic, he said.

 

Nonperforming asset management companies could help SMEs get through tough times by defusing the bad assets through various measures, including debt restructuring, debt financing and investing in equity assets, said Yang Jin, a senior analyst with banklawcn, a WeChat official account registered by Shanghai Faxun Financial Information Service Co.

 

Financial regulators have encouraged banks to temporarily exempt medical and government staff participating in the control of the novel coronavirus outbreak and those who temporarily lost their sources of income from being included in the list of default clients, if their payments on personal loans or credit cards are overdue because of the epidemic.

 

The exemption, however, is limited in scope. As household incomes declined due to the epidemic, the risk of defaults on personal loans and credit cards is still high. Asset managers could make a difference by disposing of toxic personal loans using NPL securitization as a technique, Yang said in an article posted on banklawcn on Feb 14.

 

By the end of February, the outstanding balance of nonperforming loans of the Chinese banking sector stood at 3.3 trillion yuan. The NPL ratio increased by 5 basis points from the previous month to 2.08 percent, according to the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission.

 

The outstanding balance of special mention loans, potentially weak loans presenting an unwarranted credit risk, was 5.8 trillion yuan. The ratio of special mention loans to total loans rose by 17 basis points month-on-month, mainly because overdue personal housing loans and credit card payments were temporarily classified as special mention loans due to the epidemic, the regulator said.

 

Xiao Yuanqi, chief risk officer of the CBIRC, said on March 17 that the impact of the epidemic on nonperforming loans will be gradually revealed in the next few months.

 

The CBIRC has given approval for the Beijing-based Jiantou CITIC Asset Management Co to be transformed into a financial asset management company and renamed as China Galaxy Asset Management Co, the regulator said in a notice posted on its website on March 16.

 

China Galaxy Asset Management will become the fifth authorized national State-owned asset management company after the country set up four national AMCs to deal with distressed assets of large State-owned banks in 1999.

 

Jiantou CITIC Asset Management was established in 2005 with registered capital of 1.9 billion yuan. Currently, Central Huijin Investment Ltd, a State-owned investment company, holds 70 percent of its outstanding shares. The rest is held by CITIC Securities Co Ltd, according to Tianyancha, a business data search platform.

 

在中国东部浙江省省会杭州市的一家银行分行,一名出纳员正在清点现金。[中国日报胡建环摄]


分析师表示,尽管中国政府仍在努力加大对中小企业的金融支持,但新型冠状病毒爆发引发的中国不良贷款激增,可能会让资产管理公司大发横财。


天丰证券首席银行分析师廖志明表示:“基于相对谨慎的假设,我们估计,此次疫情将导致商业银行不良贷款增加2500亿元(合353.3亿美元)。”


廖在2月13日的一份报告中表示,在受艾滋病影响最严重的行业,如餐饮业、旅游业和交通运输业,中小企业的资产质量预计将进一步恶化。


在遭受重创的行业,小企业个人贷款的不良贷款率可能大幅上升。他说,信用卡债务和消费贷款的资产质量短期内也可能受到疫情的严重打击。


上海法讯金融信息服务有限公司(Shanghai Faxun Financial Information Service Co.)注册的微信官方账号banklawcn的高级分析师杨瑾(音)表示,不良资产管理公司可以通过债务重组、债务融资和股权投资等多种措施来化解不良资产,帮助中小企业度过难关。


金融监管机构鼓励银行暂时免除医疗和政府人员参与控制的新型冠状病毒爆发,那些暂时失去了收入来源被包含在违约客户的列表,如果个人贷款或信用卡逾期还款,因为流行病。


然而,豁免的范围是有限的。由于流行病导致家庭收入下降,个人贷款和信用卡的违约风险仍然很高。2月14日,杨在banklawcn上发表的一篇文章中表示,资产管理公司可以利用不良资产证券化来处理不良个人贷款。


截至2月底,中国银行业不良贷款余额为3.3万亿元。根据中国银行保险监督管理委员会的数据,不良贷款率比上个月上升了5个基点,达到2.08%。


特别关注贷款余额为5.8万亿元。特别关注贷款可能是不良贷款,存在不合理的信用风险。监管机构表示,特别关注贷款占总贷款的比例环比上升17个基点,主要是因为由于疫情,个人住房贷款和信用卡还款逾期被暂时归类为特别关注贷款。


中国银监会首席风险官肖元奇3月17日表示,未来几个月将逐步揭示疫情对不良贷款的影响。


3月16日,中国证监会在其网站上发布通知称,已批准北京建投中信资产管理有限公司转型为金融资产管理公司,并更名为中国银河资产管理有限公司。


中国银河资产管理有限公司(China Galaxy Asset Management)将成为中国第5家获批的国有资产管理公司。1999年,中国成立了4家国有资产管理公司,负责处理大型国有银行的不良资产。


中信建投资产管理有限公司成立于2005年,注册资本19亿元。目前,中央汇金投资有限公司,一家国有投资公司,持有其70%的流通股。根据商业数据搜索平台“天元查”的数据,其余股份由中信证券有限公司持有。

 

原作者: Jiang Xueqing 来自: china daily