首页 Financial China 查看内容
  • QQ空间

Country's economy making strong comeback

2020-3-25 15:18

Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in a counting machine at a bank in Beijing, March 30, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]


China's economy is staging a strong comeback after cratering in the first quarter, while the global outlook is darkening due to financial turmoil. More efforts will be needed to contain the novel coronavirus pandemic and respond to its economic fallout, economists said.


The latest predictions by economists around the world pointed to a global recession in 2020, as the shutting down of business to curb the spread of the virus is causing serious economic and financial damage. Moody's said on Tuesday that the global economy is expected to suffer, with real GDP falling by 0.4 percent this year.


After a conference call held by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on Monday, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted negative global growth this year before a recovery in 2021, saying more "bold efforts" will be needed, especially on the fiscal front, to temper the impact.


Global central banks and governments are rapidly ramping up their response to economic and financial stress. The US Federal Reserve unveiled unprecedented measures before the market opened on Monday, vowing to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to keep borrowing costs at rock-bottom levels, which was called "infinite quantitative easing".


Previously, the Fed had cut the policy rate to nearly zero, lowered the cash amount that banks must hold in reserve and said it would provide substantial liquidity to credit markets through various types of credit facilities that had been used only in the 2008 financial crisis.


"The Fed's unexpected moves, the most aggressive monetary easing programs in the history of central banking, showed the urgency to buoy investors, which is necessary for the market, although more time is needed to see whether buying an infinite quantity of Treasurys will lead to a sustained rebound for global markets. The credit crush will last if the global economy further retreats," said Ming Ming, a senior analyst at CITIC Securities.


The Fed's new actions failed to boost US stocks immediately. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 582.05 points, or 3.04 percent, at 18,591.93 on Monday. The S&P lost 67.52 points, or 2.93 percent.


But it caused stocks to rise in Asia, including A shares. China's CSI 300 index of the Shanghai-and Shenzhen-listed stocks added 2.69 percent at the close on Tuesday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.34 percent, after a drop of 3.11 percent a day earlier. The renminbi appreciated against the US dollar as the US dollar index dropped.


"Asia appears past the worst of the virus, and while there is still considerable economic fallout to come, the region's economy should be able to eke out a small gain in GDP this year," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's.


"The plateauing of the number of new infections in China will allow for a normalization of economic activity over the second quarter, with factory output likely picking up more quickly than activity in the services sector," said Madhavi Bokil, a vice-president and senior researcher at Moody's Investors Service.


Chen Yulu, vice-governor of China's central bank, said on Sunday that the economy is returning to its potential growth rate, with significant improvement expected in the April-to-June period.


The government's ability to quickly and effectively lock down infected populations has allowed China to restart production more quickly and to limit the damage to longer-term growth prospects, said economists.


Chinese policymakers have responded to the negative economic impact and accelerated production resumption. Measures include cutting the amount of cash that banks have to set aside as reserves, in a move that will pump 550 billion yuan ($78 billion) into the economy, and offering 800 billion yuan of relending and rediscounting financing to commercial banks to increase loans. Also included is providing discretionary fiscal supports that include more government spending and tax cuts.


Additional actions will be taken if necessary to help China's economy rebound, including boosting fixed-asset investment and consumption, officials said.





在20国集团财长和央行总裁周一召开电话会议后,国际货币基金组织(imf)总裁Kristalina Georgieva预计,全球经济今年将出现负增长,2021年才会复苏。她表示,需要采取更多"大胆举措",尤其是在财政方面,以缓和经济衰退的影响。

全球各国央行和政府正迅速加大对经济和金融压力的应对力度。美联储(fed)在周一开市前推出了前所未有的举措,誓言将无限量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券(mbs),以将借贷成本保持在最低水平,这被称为“无限量化宽松”(infinite quantitative easing)。


“美联储的意想不到的举动,最激进的货币宽松政策项目中央银行的历史,展示了浮标的紧迫性的投资者,这对市场是必要的,但还需要更多的时间是否购买一个无限数量的国债将导致全球市场持续反弹。如果全球经济进一步衰退,信贷紧缩将持续下去,”中信证券(CITIC Securities)高级分析师明明表示。

美联储的新举措未能立即提振美国股市。道琼工业指数周一收低582.05点,或3.04%,报18,591.93点;标准普尔500指数. spx收跌67.52点,或2.93%。


穆迪(Moody's)首席经济学家马克•赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示:“亚洲似乎已度过了病毒最严重的时期,尽管仍有相当大的经济影响即将到来,但该地区经济今年应该能够勉强实现GDP小幅增长。”

穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)副总裁兼高级研究员Madhavi Bokil表示:“中国新增感染人数趋于平稳,将使第二季度的经济活动趋于正常化,工厂产出的回升速度可能快于服务业。”






原作者: CHEN JIA 来自: china daily