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Country's economy making strong comeback

2020-3-25 15:18

Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in a counting machine at a bank in Beijing, March 30, 2016. [Photo/Agencies]

 

China's economy is staging a strong comeback after cratering in the first quarter, while the global outlook is darkening due to financial turmoil. More efforts will be needed to contain the novel coronavirus pandemic and respond to its economic fallout, economists said.

 

The latest predictions by economists around the world pointed to a global recession in 2020, as the shutting down of business to curb the spread of the virus is causing serious economic and financial damage. Moody's said on Tuesday that the global economy is expected to suffer, with real GDP falling by 0.4 percent this year.

 

After a conference call held by G20 finance ministers and central bank governors on Monday, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva predicted negative global growth this year before a recovery in 2021, saying more "bold efforts" will be needed, especially on the fiscal front, to temper the impact.

 

Global central banks and governments are rapidly ramping up their response to economic and financial stress. The US Federal Reserve unveiled unprecedented measures before the market opened on Monday, vowing to buy unlimited amounts of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to keep borrowing costs at rock-bottom levels, which was called "infinite quantitative easing".

 

Previously, the Fed had cut the policy rate to nearly zero, lowered the cash amount that banks must hold in reserve and said it would provide substantial liquidity to credit markets through various types of credit facilities that had been used only in the 2008 financial crisis.

 

"The Fed's unexpected moves, the most aggressive monetary easing programs in the history of central banking, showed the urgency to buoy investors, which is necessary for the market, although more time is needed to see whether buying an infinite quantity of Treasurys will lead to a sustained rebound for global markets. The credit crush will last if the global economy further retreats," said Ming Ming, a senior analyst at CITIC Securities.

 

The Fed's new actions failed to boost US stocks immediately. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 582.05 points, or 3.04 percent, at 18,591.93 on Monday. The S&P lost 67.52 points, or 2.93 percent.

 

But it caused stocks to rise in Asia, including A shares. China's CSI 300 index of the Shanghai-and Shenzhen-listed stocks added 2.69 percent at the close on Tuesday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.34 percent, after a drop of 3.11 percent a day earlier. The renminbi appreciated against the US dollar as the US dollar index dropped.

 

"Asia appears past the worst of the virus, and while there is still considerable economic fallout to come, the region's economy should be able to eke out a small gain in GDP this year," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's.

 

"The plateauing of the number of new infections in China will allow for a normalization of economic activity over the second quarter, with factory output likely picking up more quickly than activity in the services sector," said Madhavi Bokil, a vice-president and senior researcher at Moody's Investors Service.

 

Chen Yulu, vice-governor of China's central bank, said on Sunday that the economy is returning to its potential growth rate, with significant improvement expected in the April-to-June period.

 

The government's ability to quickly and effectively lock down infected populations has allowed China to restart production more quickly and to limit the damage to longer-term growth prospects, said economists.

 

Chinese policymakers have responded to the negative economic impact and accelerated production resumption. Measures include cutting the amount of cash that banks have to set aside as reserves, in a move that will pump 550 billion yuan ($78 billion) into the economy, and offering 800 billion yuan of relending and rediscounting financing to commercial banks to increase loans. Also included is providing discretionary fiscal supports that include more government spending and tax cuts.

 

Additional actions will be taken if necessary to help China's economy rebound, including boosting fixed-asset investment and consumption, officials said.

 

2016年3月30日,在北京一家银行的点钞机里,人们看到了100元人民币。【图片/机构】


中国经济在经历了第一季度的衰退后,正在强劲复苏,而全球经济前景因金融动荡而变得黯淡。经济学家说,需要采取更多的措施来遏制这种新型冠状病毒的流行,并对其经济后果做出反应。


世界各地经济学家的最新预测显示,到2020年,全球经济将陷入衰退,因为为了遏制病毒的传播而关闭的企业正在造成严重的经济和金融损失。穆迪周二表示,预计全球经济将受到影响,今年实际GDP将下降0.4%。


在20国集团财长和央行总裁周一召开电话会议后,国际货币基金组织(imf)总裁Kristalina Georgieva预计,全球经济今年将出现负增长,2021年才会复苏。她表示,需要采取更多"大胆举措",尤其是在财政方面,以缓和经济衰退的影响。


全球各国央行和政府正迅速加大对经济和金融压力的应对力度。美联储(fed)在周一开市前推出了前所未有的举措,誓言将无限量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券(mbs),以将借贷成本保持在最低水平,这被称为“无限量化宽松”(infinite quantitative easing)。


此前,美联储曾将政策利率降至接近于零的水平,降低了银行的存款准备金率,并表示将通过各种信贷工具向信贷市场提供大量流动性,而这些工具仅在2008年金融危机期间使用过。


“美联储的意想不到的举动,最激进的货币宽松政策项目中央银行的历史,展示了浮标的紧迫性的投资者,这对市场是必要的,但还需要更多的时间是否购买一个无限数量的国债将导致全球市场持续反弹。如果全球经济进一步衰退,信贷紧缩将持续下去,”中信证券(CITIC Securities)高级分析师明明表示。


美联储的新举措未能立即提振美国股市。道琼工业指数周一收低582.05点,或3.04%,报18,591.93点;标准普尔500指数. spx收跌67.52点,或2.93%。


但它导致亚洲股市上涨,包括A股。沪深300指数周二收盘上涨2.69%。基准的上证综合指数继前一天下跌3.11%之后,今天又上涨了2.34%。随着美元指数下跌,人民币对美元升值。


穆迪(Moody's)首席经济学家马克•赞迪(Mark Zandi)表示:“亚洲似乎已度过了病毒最严重的时期,尽管仍有相当大的经济影响即将到来,但该地区经济今年应该能够勉强实现GDP小幅增长。”


穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody's Investors Service)副总裁兼高级研究员Madhavi Bokil表示:“中国新增感染人数趋于平稳,将使第二季度的经济活动趋于正常化,工厂产出的回升速度可能快于服务业。”


中国央行副行长陈裕禄周日表示,中国经济正在回归潜在增长率,预计4月至6月期间将出现显著改善。


经济学家表示,政府能够迅速有效地锁定受感染人群,这使得中国能够更快地恢复生产,并限制对较长期增长前景的损害。


中国的政策制定者已经对负面的经济影响做出了反应,并加快了恢复生产的步伐。措施包括降低银行存款准备金率,此举将为经济注入5500亿元人民币(780亿美元),并向商业银行提供8000亿元人民币的再融资和再贴现,以增加贷款。还包括提供可自由支配的财政支持,包括更多的政府支出和减税。


官员们表示,如有必要,还将采取其他措施帮助中国经济复苏,包括促进固定资产投资和消费。

 

原作者: CHEN JIA 来自: china daily