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COVID-19不会对“一带一路”产生长期影响

2020-3-26 14:48

3月3日,在山东青岛的一个港口,中国中车四方有限公司为斯里兰卡制造的一节火车车厢被装上了一艘轮船。[中国日报张金刚摄]


“一带一路”倡议可能会因“vid19”大流行而出现短期延迟,但随着从拉美到南亚的数十亿美元项目的启动,其长期势头将得到持续甚至加强。


目前,COVID-19在世界各国的影响非常明显。同样,“一带一路”沿线的项目也因停工和旅行限制而放缓。然而,这些短期挫折不太可能使那些跨度多年的项目脱轨。


亚洲基础设施投资银行经济部门经理Jangping Thia表示:“我们预计,由于金融市场人气减弱和供应链中断,基础设施项目将被推迟,但强劲的需求和源源不断的项目将继续预示着后危机时代的反弹。”


“一带一路”项目遭遇挫折的主要原因是旅行限制和边境控制。


例如,由于中国工人无法返回工作岗位,斯里兰卡港口城市科伦坡(Colombo)项目的施工就因旅行限制而放缓。


雅万高铁项目的工人也无法在春节假期后返回印尼。


据印尼中国铁路集团(Indonesia China)的数据,该项目多达14%的工人是中国人。印尼中国铁路集团将在印尼运营高铁系统。


“由于COVID-19的持续爆发,中国承包商在中国境外承建的一些基础设施项目的进展将面临持续的延误。其中一些项目是中国主导的“一带一路”的一部分,”惠誉解决方案(Fitch Solutions)亚洲国家风险分析师贾森•耶克(Jason Yek)表示。


在所有正在建设的项目中,所有涉及中国承包商的项目价值估计超过3000亿美元,Yek说。


“大多数涉及中国承包商的项目都位于印度尼西亚、巴基斯坦和老挝等亚洲市场,而那些使用中国劳动力比例更高的项目面临着更高的延误风险。”


随着越来越多的亚洲和南美国家采取更严格的边境控制措施,交流和贸易可能会越来越艰难。


其中一些“一带一路”项目可能会在2020年上半年出现一些延迟。


ho&partners Architects Engineers & Development Consultants Ltd .副董事总经理何国豪(Nicholas Ho)看到了更严格的边境管制对香港建筑的影响。


“跨境货车和货车的限制已经影响了该行业的供应链方面,比如用于调制一体化建设的模块,”何说。


自疫情爆发并于1月底开始封锁以来,供应链已被中断,中国的工业生产也已中断,目前正在努力恢复正常生产。


亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)宏观经济研究部主任阿比阿德(Abdul Abiad)表示,高频指标显示,2月份中国大陆的石油产量整体大幅下降。


“由于企业被迫关闭,工人无法上班,以及边境关闭、旅行禁令和对货物、人员和资本流动的其他限制,造成了大量生产中断。”


但是阿卜杜勒说,中国大陆的生产水平现在开始恢复正常。


“应对流行病的准备程度与基础设施的质量有关。发展中经济体需要投资公共卫生基础设施,将其作为流行病防范的关键部分,”西亚说。


但他表示,公共卫生基础设施需要同时投资于信息和通信技术,因为这将提高卫生保健提供和疫情控制的效率。


惠誉解决方案(Fitch Solutions)的Yek表示:“我们仍然对‘一带一路’在许多‘一带一路’国家的基础设施和产业发展中发挥核心作用持积极的长期看法,尽管短期内也可能出现阻力。”


新的项目可能会出现。


“一旦中国从这种情况中恢复过来,它可能能够通过向需要它的国家提供医疗专业知识和物资来提供一种不同的外交手段,”HPA的Ho说,他的公司在“一带一路”国家有项目。


例如,大流行可能会在“一带一路”沿线产生对更多医疗设施的需求。


最后,他说,项目可能会被推迟,但最终会继续,他相信商业需求会反弹:“从长远来看,几个月的推迟不会阻止一带一路这样的倡议。”

 

A train carriage made by CRRC Sifang Co Ltd for Sri Lanka is loaded onto a ship at a port in Qingdao, Shandong province, on March 3. [Photo by Zhang Jingang/For China Daily]

 

The Belt and Road Initiative may experience short-term delays from the COVID-19 pandemic, but its long-term momentum will be sustained and even strengthened with multibillion-dollar projects from Latin America to South Asia underway.

 

The impact of COVID-19 in countries around the world is very visible at the moment. Similarly, projects along the BRI have been slowed by lockdowns and travel restrictions. However, these short-term setbacks are unlikely to derail projects with horizons spanning years.

 

"We expect infrastructure projects to be delayed due to weaker financial sentiment and supply chain disruptions, but strong demand and a pipeline of projects continue to point to a post-crisis rebound," Jangping Thia, manager of the economics unit at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, said.

 

The big cause of any setbacks in BRI projects are travel restrictions and border control.

 

For example, work on Sri Lanka's Port City Colombo project has been slowed by travel restrictions as Chinese workers have not been able to return to work.

 

Workers on the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway project are also unable to return to Indonesia after the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

As much as 14 percent of workers on the project are Chinese nationals, according to PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia China, the railway consortium that will operate high-speed rail systems in Indonesia.

 

"The progress of a handful of infrastructure projects undertaken by Chinese contractors outside of China will face continued delays due to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Some of these projects are part of China-led BRI," Jason Yek, Asia country risk analyst for Fitch Solutions, said.

 

Out of all the projects currently under construction, the value of all projects involving Chinese contractors is estimated to be in excess of $300 billion, said Yek.

 

"Most projects involving Chinese contractors are located in Asian markets such as Indonesia, Pakistan and Laos, and projects that utilize a higher proportion of Chinese labor face elevated risks of delays."

 

As more countries in Asia and South America adopt stricter border control measures, exchanges and trade could be on the uphill.

 

Some of these BRI projects could experience some delays in the first half of 2020.

 

Nicholas Ho, deputy managing director of Ho& Partners Architects Engineers & Development Consultants Ltd, has seen how stricter border controls have affected construction in Hong Kong.

 

"The limit on lorries and vans going across the border have affected the supply chain side of the industry, such as the modules used in modulated integrated construction," Ho said.

 

Since the outbreak and lockdowns started in late January, supply chains have been disrupted as has industrial production in China, which is now bidding to resume normal operations.

 

High-frequency indicators suggest that production in the Chinese mainland as a whole fell sharply in February, Abdul Abiad, director of the macroeconomics research division for the Asian Development Bank, said.

 

"There have been substantial production disruptions as a result of forced business closures and the inability of workers to get to work, as well as disruptions to trade and business as a result of border closures, travel bans, and other restrictions on the movement of goods, people, and capital."

 

But Abdul said production levels in the mainland are now beginning to normalize.

 

"Readiness to deal with epidemics is correlated to quality of infrastructure. Developing economies need to invest in public health infrastructure as a key part of epidemic preparedness," said Thia of AIIB.

 

But he says public health infrastructure needs parallel investment in information and communications technology as it improves efficiency in healthcare delivery and epidemic control.

 

"We continue to hold a positive long-term view for the BRI to play a central role in the development of infrastructure and industries for a large number of BRI countries, although short-term pushbacks are expected as well," said Yek of Fitch Solutions.

 

And new kinds of projects might emerge.

 

"Once China has recovered from the situation, it might be able to offer a different sort of diplomacy by offering its medical expertise and supplies to countries that need it," said Ho of HPA, whose firm has projects in BRI countries.

 

For example, the pandemic might create a demand for more healthcare facilities along the BRI.

 

In the end, said Ho, projects might be delayed but will ultimately continue and he is confident that business appetite will rebound: "In the long run, a few months' delay is not going to stop an initiative like the Belt and Road."

 

原作者: David Ho 来自: china daily