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美国申请失业救济的人数接近300万

2020-5-15 11:55

 

美国劳工部周四报告,上周又有298.1万工人申请失业救济,使冠状病毒大流行期间的失业总人数达到近3650万,这是美国历史上失业人数最多的一次。


接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家预计,首次申请失业救济的人数将达到270万。


受此消息影响,美国股市开盘走低。


然而,自3月最后一周达到峰值以来,首次申领失业救济金人数已连续6周下降。这可能意味着最糟糕的裁员已经结束。


"数据非常高,但每周都在下降,我认为没有理由不继续下降,"前总统布什(布希)经济顾问委员会的首席经济学家Keith Hall对华尔街日报表示。“雇主很可能准备让员工回来,但现在我们处于停滞状态。”


联邦刺激法案中的一项条款允许在流感大流行之前普遍没有资格领取福利的工人申请失业福利,包括自雇和独立合同。


4月19日至5月2日,全美约有140万失业人员首次申请失业救济。但劳工部表示,申请失业救济的人数并不包括在内。


今年2月,美国经济强劲,就业市场强劲。随后,冠状病毒爆发,政府命令人们呆在家里,以遏制疾病的蔓延。


包括佛罗里达州、印第安纳州、德克萨斯州和犹他州在内的一些州正在放宽限制,并采取初步措施恢复经济。但是包括加利福尼亚和密歇根在内的其他州仍然普遍封锁。


纽约市仍然处于关闭状态,地铁客流量下降了大约95%。但纽约州人口密度较低的北部、南部和西部部分地区正在重新开放。


凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席美国经济学家保罗•阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)在接受CNBC采访时表示:“由于多数州在过去10天内才开始放松封锁,我们预计未来几周内招聘人数将大幅增加,而裁员人数将大幅减少,这意味着失业率将开始回落。”


周四早盘,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌180.12点,或0.74%,至23,067.76点。标准普尔500指数下跌0.84%。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.58%。


周三,道琼工业指数收跌516.81点,或2.17%,报23247.97点。标准普尔500指数下跌1.75%。纳斯达克综合指数下跌1.55%。


衡量美国油价的西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨2.89%,至每桶26.01美元。全球基准布伦特原油价格上涨2.81%,至30.01美元。石油价格是未来经济活动的一个指标。


高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师扎克•潘德尔(Zach Pandl)认为,美国经济再次遭遇“重大挫折”,可能导致美联储(fed)采取负利率政策。


但潘德尔告诉CNBC,这项政策不会“很有帮助”。


美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周三说,美国央行没有考虑负利率。


在负利率下,银行向储户收取存款利息。这种做法发生在经济严重衰退期间,旨在鼓励放贷和提振经济。日本去年采取了这一政策。


在冠状病毒(coronavirus)大流行期间,人们对健康的担忧加剧,这似乎有利于一家帮助人们减肥并保持身材的公司。


WW国际(WW International)的股价周三上涨近5%,此前杰富瑞(Jefferies)将该股评级定为"买入",并设定32美元的目标价,即分析师对其全部价值的预估。


这位分析师表示,冠状病毒大流行开启了一种“持久的趋势”,可能会维持该公司的“卓越增长”。


消息传出后,该股周三盘中一度跃升10%,但似乎只是昙花一现。周四早盘,该公司股价下跌1.95%。

 

Another 2.981 million workers filed for unemployment claims last week, boosting the total during the coronavirus pandemic to nearly 36.5 million –the largest number of job losses in US history, the US Labor Department reported Thursday.

 

Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected 2.7 million workers to file initial jobless claims.

 

US stocks opened lower on the news.

 

However, the number of initial claims has declined for six consecutive weeks since peaking in the last week of March. This may suggest that the worst of the job cuts are over.

 

"The numbers are very high, but they're stepping down every week, and I see no reason why the decline in filings wouldn't continue," Keith Hall, chief economist for the Council of Economic Advisers under former President George W. Bush, told the Journal. "Employers are likely poised to bring people back, but right now we're in a holding pattern."

 

A provision in the federal stimulus bill allows workers who were generally ineligible for benefits prior to the pandemic, including the self-employed and independent contracts, to apply for unemployment benefits.

 

About 1.4 million such workers throughout the nation filed initial jobless claims between April 19 and May 2. But the claims are not included in the total number of those seeking benefits, the Labor Department said.

 

The economy was strong and the job market robust a recently as February. Then the coronavirus hit, and states ordered people to stay home to curb spread of the disease.

 

Some states, including Florida, Indiana, Texas and Utah, are easing restrictions and taking the first steps to re-starting the economy. But others, including California and Michigan remain generally locked down.

 

New York City remains closed and subway ridership has plunged about 95 percent. But selected areas in the less densely populated northern, southern and western portions of New York state are re-opening.

 

"With most states only beginning to ease their lockdowns within the last 10 days, we expect a much bigger swing in hiring versus firing over the next couple of weeks, which suggests the unemployment rate will begin to drop back," Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC.

 

In early trading Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 180.12 points, or 0.74 percent, to 23,067.76. The S&P 500 lost 0.84 percent. The Nasdaq Composite TK slipped 0.58 percent.

 

On Wednesday, the Dow lost 516.81 points, or 2.17 percent, and closed at 23,247.97. The S&P 500 fell 1.75 percent. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.55 percent.

 

West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the gauge for US prices, rose 2.89 percent to $26.01 a barrel. Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark, rose 2.81 percent to $30.01. The price of oil is a proxy for future economic activity.

 

Goldman Sachs analysts Zach Pandl believes another "big setback" in the US economy could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt negative interest rates.

 

But Pandl told CNBC the policy wouldn't be "very helpful."

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the nation's central bank isn't considering negative interest rates.

 

With negative rates, banks charge savers to keep cash on deposit. This occurs during a deep recession and is an effort to encourage lending and boost the economy. Japan adopted the policy last year.

 

Heightened health concerns during the coronavirus pandemic appear to benefit a company that helps people lose weight and keep it off.

 

Shares of WW International, formerly called Weight Watchers, gained nearly 5 percent Wednesday after Jefferies issued a "buy" rating for the stock and set a $32 price target, or an analyst's estimate of its full value.

 

The analyst said the coronavirus pandemic had started a "durable trend" that could sustain "superior growth" for the company.

 

The stock jumped as much as 10 percent in intraday trading Wednesday on the news, but the pop appeared to be short-lived. In early trading Thursday, the stock slid 1.95 percent.

 

原作者: SCOTT REEVES 来自: china daily