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美联储在COVID-19疫情中实施无限量宽松政策后,越南经济面临挑战

2020-5-19 15:19

 

河内,5月18日(新华社)——在对2019冠状病毒感染的恐惧与日俱增之际,美国联邦储备委员会宣布了前所未有的无限量量化宽松计划,至今已近两个月。尽管紧急货币政策对美国经济的有效性存在争议,但也给包括越南在内的其他经济体带来了压力,越南的货币政策和股市也受到了影响。


3月23日,美联储宣布将采取积极的提供流动性的另一个层面的努力,通过移除强加给自己的7000亿美元上限量化宽松计划早些时候,授权它购买尽可能多的政府债务感觉需要避难所世界上最大的经济COVID-19的影响。美联储还表示,将首次购买公司债券。


尽管量化宽松计划对美国经济的效果尚不清楚,但美联储的举措已经对外部国家产生了溢出效应。其中,越南也看到了其金融当局面临的压力。


在美联储不断下调基本利率给全球央行带来的巨大压力下,越南自3月份以来在两个月内两次下调基准利率。


越南国家银行削减许多利率,包括再融资利率,再贴现率,活期存款和存款利率,从5月13日0.5百分点的一部分试图让经济回到正轨COVID-19大流行后,第二个移动的自3月16日日报越南新闻报道。


西贡证券公司的机构销售主管Nguyen Anh Duc告诉金融杂志(Tap chi Tai Chinh):“这些削减是必要的,以降低银行的资本成本,使它们能够以较低的利率向企业提供贷款,这将提振经济。”Duc还预计,由于利润相对较小,今年还会进一步降息。


越南投资发展股份商业银行(BIDV)首席经济学家Can Van Luc在接受《金融时报》(Banking Times)采访时表示:“流动性是人们和企业目前所需要的。”陆委会认为,除了货币政策,当局还应尽快实施财政解决方案,包括降低税费、增加公共投资和鼓励消费,以提振经济。


对经济冲击作为其工作的一部分,越南政府承诺的社会保障计划62万亿越南盾(约27亿美元)在4月初,支持人们直接受到COVID-19流行,包括工人失去了工作,个人经营家庭,等等。中国财政部也迅速削减了一系列费用,以支持企业,使它们能够很快复苏。


除了对该国金融当局的压力,当地专家还认为,无限制的量化宽松政策可能导致全球市场流动性过剩,并影响越南股市。金融专家Nguyen Tri Hieu对越南商业论坛杂志(Dien dan Doanh nghiep)表示:“随着流动性更加充裕,投资将直接流向受COVID-19疫情影响较小的更安全的市场。”


Hieu表示,由于全球心理影响,投资者更加谨慎和悲观,这可能导致全球市场,包括越南市场,下跌。


他还指出,如果未来继续实施无限制的量化宽松政策,可能会有货币战争的风险。“流行后,如果其他经济体货币政策正常化,但美联储仍实现了量化宽松计划和保持利率接近百分之零,这并不排除货币战争的场景,“Hieu评估,指出,其他国家也会想方设法使本国货币贬值来支持出口。

 

HANOI, May 18 (Xinhua) -- It has been nearly two months since the U.S. Federal Reserve declared its unprecedented unlimited QE (quantitative easing) program amid mounting fears of the COVID-19 fallout. Despite the controversial effectiveness to the U.S. economy, the emergency monetary policy has brought pressure on other economies, including Vietnam, which has seen impacts on its monetary policies and stock market.

On March 23, the Fed announced that it would take the aggressive liquidity-providing efforts to another level, by removing its self-imposed 700 billion U.S. dollars cap on the earlier quantitative easing plan, essentially licensing it to buy as much government debt as it feels is needed to shelter the world's largest economy from the effects of the COVID-19. The Fed also said that, for the first time, it would buy corporate bonds.

While the effectiveness of a QE program to the U.S. economy is still unclear, the Fed's move has posed spillover impacts on external countries. Among them, Vietnam has also been seeing pressures facing its financial authorities.

Under the enormous pressure on central banks worldwide brought by the continuous reduction of basic interest rates by the Fed, Vietnam has cut its benchmark interest rates for two times within two months since March.

The State Bank of Vietnam slashed many rates, including refinancing rate, rediscount rate, demand deposits and deposits rates, by up to 0.5 percentage points from May 13 as part of the attempts to get the economy back on track after the COVID-19 pandemic, the second move of its kind since March 16, daily newspaper Vietnam News reported.

"The cuts are necessary to reduce capital costs for banks, enabling them to provide loans to businesses at less-expensive rates, which will buoy the economy," Nguyen Anh Duc, head of Institutional Sales at Saigon Securities Incorporation, told the Finance Magazine (Tap chi Tai Chinh). Duc also expected that there would be further cut this year as the margin was relatively small.

"Liquidity is what people and businesses are in need right now," Can Van Luc, chief economist of Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) was quoted by Banking Times newspaper (Thoi bao Ngan hang) as saying. According to Luc, besides monetary policies, the authorities should urgently implement fiscal solutions, including reducing tax and fees, boosting public investment and encourage consumption, to buoy the economy.

As part of its effort against the economic shock, the Vietnamese government pledged a social security package of up to 62 trillion Vietnamese dong (roughly 2.7 billion U.S. dollars) in early April, to support people directly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, including workers who lost their jobs, individual business households, among others. The country's Ministry of Finance has also rushed to cut series of fees to support businesses so that they can revive soon.

Besides pressures on the country's financial authorities, local experts also believe that the unlimited QE policy may lead to excess liquidity on the global market and affect Vietnam's stock market. "With more abundant liquidity, investment will direct to safer markets, which are less affected by the COVID-19 epidemic," financial expert Nguyen Tri Hieu told Vietnam's Business Forum Magazine (Dien dan Doanh nghiep).

According to Hieu, due to the psychology impact globally, investors are more cautious and pessimistic, which can cause the global market, including the Vietnamese one, to go down.

He also noted the possible risk of currency war if the unlimited QE policy is to be carried on in the future. "After the epidemic, if other economies normalize their monetary policies but the Fed still implements the QE program and maintains interest rates close to zero percent, it does not rule out the scenario of a currency war," Hieu assessed, noting that by then, other countries will also find ways to devalue the domestic currency to support exports.

 

来自: xinhua