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芬兰经济触底,正在逐步回升

2020-5-20 15:12

 

赫尔辛基,5月19日(新华社)——OP金融集团周二表示,芬兰的经济已经触底,但逐步回升已经开始。


OP是芬兰最大的金融公司之一,该公司的经济学家在一份新闻稿中预测,芬兰经济今年将收缩6%,2021年将反弹至3.5%的增长率。


这一预测的前提是,由冠状病毒大流行造成的限制将逐步解除,但病毒及其进一步传播的威胁将影响人们的生活,甚至明年。


到2020年,中国经济将受到私人支出和出口下降趋势的最严重冲击,预计投资和库存水平将因疫情而大幅下降。然而,通过减少进口和增加公共部门的需求,国内生产总值(GDP)的下降将得到缓解,金融集团说。


“芬兰经济即将在暴跌后再次反弹。第二季度将触底,GDP将在7月至10月走高。OP的首席经济学家Reijo Heiskanen在新闻发布会上说。


受疫情影响,截至3月底,芬兰民间支出较年初下降20%。然而,由于消费的“崩溃”,家庭储蓄率急剧上升。


OP表示:“由于被压抑的需求和不断增加的储蓄,消费可能会复苏,尽管就业下降将打击购买力。”


海斯卡宁指出,由于结构性原因,芬兰经济的下滑幅度不会太大,而且芬兰的复苏速度将慢于欧元区或美国。


OP的经济学家警告说,仍然存在“毫无例外的巨大不确定性”,这与崩溃的规模、复苏的时机和长期增长前景有关。


"在经济政策上谨慎行事是明智的,但在其他方面,对这场危机的结果持开放态度," Heiskanen表示。

 

HELSINKI, May 19 (Xinhua) -- The economy of Finland has hit bottom but a gradual upswing is already under way, the OP Financial Group said Tuesday.

Economists at OP, one of the largest financial companies in Finland, projected in a press release that the country's economy will contract by six percent this year, and will rebound to 3.5 percent growth in 2021.

The forecast is based on the premise that the restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic will be lifted gradually, but the virus and the threat of its further spread will impact on people's lives even next year.

In 2020, the country's economy will be hit the hardest by the downward trend in private spending and exports, and the levels of investment and inventories are expected to drop considerably due to the pandemic. However, the decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) will be alleviated by reducing imports and growing demand in the public sector, the financial group said.

"The Finnish economy is about to rebound again soon after a steep crash. The second quarter will hit bottom, and GDP would be higher in July-October. The rise will begin gradually," said Reijo Heiskanen, OP's chief economist, in the press release.

Affected by the pandemic, private spending in Finland decreased by 20 percent at the end of March compared to the early part of this year. However, as a result of the "collapse" in spending, the household saving ratio has risen sharply.

"Consumption may recover thanks to pent-up demand and increasing saving, even though purchasing power will be hit by declining employment," the OP said.

Due to structural reasons, the decrease in the Finnish economy will not be steep, and the country will recover more slowly than the eurozone or the United States, noted Heiskanen.

The OP's economists warned that there is still "unexceptionally great uncertainty," which relates to the scale of the collapse, the timing of recovery and the long-term growth prospects.

"It is wise to play safe in economic policy but otherwise keep an open mind about what the outcome of this crisis will be," Heiskanen suggested.

 

来自: xinhua