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专家说,美国股市收复了失地,但还会有更多的波动

2020-6-19 11:09

 

华盛顿,6月16日(新华社)——美国股市在周一和周二反弹,收复了上周的巨大跌幅。但由于新冠肺炎疫苗还需要几个月的时间,而且病例数还会上升,专家预计美国市场在不久的将来会出现高度动荡。


美国股市在上周大跌后,周一和周二迅速反弹。这在很大程度上是由于当日早些时候公布的美国零售销售增长17.7%,超出了一些人的预期。


但近几个月来,随着疫情的蔓延,市场出现了很大波动,本周的反弹绝不意味着经济已经走出困境。


他说:“我确实认为,全面复苏必须等待疫苗,但股市将对疫苗的预期作出反应。这意味着很大的波动性,”布鲁金斯学会高级研究员巴里·博斯沃思告诉新华社。


"投资者没有意识到第二季财报将会有多糟,他们对v型复苏过于乐观," Bosworth说。


“我预计这种病毒会在美国卷土重来但是,领导人和公众将在很大程度上忽视这一点,继续推动经济重新开放。经济压力将超过对病毒的恐惧。我们预计今年剩余时间将出现强劲增长,但远低于年初水平的复苏。


美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)常驻研究员德斯蒙德•拉赫曼(Desmond Lachman)对新华社表示,市场“认为经济将出现急剧的v型复苏,这有些超前了。”


“冠状病毒大流行远未得到控制。在世界范围内,这一数字正在以有记录以来最快的速度增长。现在美国有21个州的人数在增加。”


他说:“过早解除封锁,以及全球出现大规模政治示威的趋势,使得今年晚些时候在美国和海外出现第二波疫情的可能性增大。”


"如果果真如此,美国和全球股市在今年馀下时间将会遭遇坎坷," Lachman补充道。

 

WASHINGTON, June 16 (Xinhua) -- U.S. markets made a comeback on Monday and Tuesday, erasing last week's massive losses. But with a COVID-19 vaccine still months away and an uptick of cases on the horizon, experts expect highly volatile U.S. markets in the near future.

U.S. stocks snapped back Monday and Tuesday after last week's sharp drop. Much of this was on the announcement earlier in the day that U.S. retail sales increased 17.7 percent -- beating some estimates.

But the market has seen much volatility in recent months amid the pandemic, and this week's comeback is by no means an indication that the economy is out of the woods.

"I do think a full recovery must await a vaccine, but the stock market will respond to the expectations of one. That implies a lot of volatility," Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Barry Bosworth told Xinhua.

"Investors do not realize how bad the earnings reports in the second quarter will be, and they are too optimistic about a full V-shaped recovery," Bosworth said.

"I expect to see a rebound of the virus in the U.S., but leaders and the public will largely ignore it and move on with reopening of the economy. The economic pressures will exceed the fear of the virus. We expect strong growth for the remainder of the year, but far short of a recovery to beginning-of-year levels," he said.

Desmond Lachman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told Xinhua that the market has "got ahead of itself in thinking that we would have a sharp V-shaped economic recovery."

"The coronavirus pandemic is far from under control. Worldwide the numbers are increasing at the fastest rate yet recorded ... and 21 U.S. States are now seeing increased numbers," Lachman said.

"The premature lifting of lockdowns and the global trend towards large political demonstrations at which social distancing is not observed heightens the chances that we will see a second wave of the pandemic later this year both in the U.S. and abroad," he said.

"If that turns out to be the case, the U.S. and global stock markets will be in for some rough sledding for the remainder of this year," Lachman added.

 

原作者: Matthew Rusling 来自: xinhua