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IDC下调了区块链消费预测,但预计2020年仍同比增长57.7%

2020-6-24 14:19

 

研究公司国际数据公司(IDC)将其对全球区块链消费的预测下调了7.7%,并预计到2020年区块链消费将比2019年增长57.7%,达到近43亿美元。IDC下调了对2023年的预测,目前预计支出将从covid -19爆发前的近160亿美元增至144亿美元。


该研究公司援引了COVID-19对企业的影响,这些企业在经济前景疲弱的情况下削减了IT支出。该机构表示,所有行业的区块链支出都将下降,但有些行业降幅更大。

 

区域的影响


全球区块链支出预测下调7.7%,亚太地区将下调6%。两个月前,IDC表示,欧洲区块链消费增幅将比之前下降8%。


亚太地区占全球区块链支出的19.3%左右,主要有三种用途:跨境支付和结算、贸易融资和贸易后/交易结算以及监管合规。


区块链使企业能够有效地监控供应链,跟踪和跟踪货物,并维护可审计的产品移动记录。IDC表示,在大流行之前采用区块链的公司比其他公司表现更好。


IDC亚太区副市场分析师Ritika Srivastava表示:“在亚太地区,这项技术仍处于起步阶段,它帮助许多行业的企业克服了供应链管理、医疗数据验证和保险索赔跟踪等挑战。”


与此同时,美国将在2020年引领区块链的支出,尽管比之前的预测下降了6%。

 

部门的影响


IDC表示,酒店业、旅游业、运输业和建筑业的支出降幅将达到9.5%或更多。在率先采用区块链的金融业,支出将出现适度削减。然而,到2020年,银行、证券、投资服务和保险行业的投资预计仍将超过16亿美元。


由于供应链面临压力,IDC预计,在2018-23年期间,制造业和资源行业的区块链支出增长最快,复合年增长率为60.5%。其次是分销和服务业,复合年增长率为58.7%。

 

区块链用例影响


2020年区块链投资将以跨境支付结算、产品来源等为主,占16.8%。制造和分销公司将专注于商品的来源,而分散的身份识别将受到银行、政府和医疗实体的极大关注。


“这在很大程度上是由于区块链技术的独特性,如分散化、透明和冗余,”区块链全球战略研究主管James Wester说。


“这些是供应链、医疗保健和金融服务中的许多现有技术方法目前所缺乏的特征——正是这些特征的缺乏暴露了我们目前在跟踪食品或分发药品等方面的问题。”

 

Research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) has scaled back its forecast for global blockchain spending by 7.7% and now anticipates 57.7% growth over 2019 to reach nearly $4.3 billion in 2020. IDC reduced its forecast for 2023 and now expects spending to hit $14.4 billion from the pre-COVID-19 estimate of nearly $16 billion. 

The research firm cites COVID-19 effects on businesses that have cut down IT spending amid weak economic prospects. It said blockchain spending would decline across all sectors, but some more than others. 

Regional impact 

While worldwide the blockchain spending forecast was cut by 7.7%, Asia Pacific will see a reduction of 6%. Two months ago, IDC said European blockchain spending growth would decline by 8% compared to previously. 

The Asia Pacific region contributes around 19.3% to global blockchain spend and is dominated by three use cases — cross-border payments & settlements, trade finance & post-trade/transaction settlements, and regulatory compliance.

Blockchain enables businesses to efficiently monitor supply chains, track and trace goods, and maintain an auditable record of product movement. IDC says companies that adopted blockchain before the pandemic fared better than others. 

“The technology has helped enterprises across many industries to overcome the challenges from managing supply chains, medical data verifications, and tracking insurance claims in the Asia/Pacific region where the adoption is still in its nascent stage,” said Ritika Srivastava, Associate Market Analyst at IDC Asia/Pacific. 

Meanwhile, the U.S. will lead in blockchain spending in 2020, despite a 6% reduction to previous forecasts. 

Sector impact

IDC says hospitality, tourism, transportation, and construction industries will see a spending decline of 9.5% or more. The financial sector, which has been at the forefront of adopting blockchain, will see a moderate reduction in spending. However, banking, securities, and investment services, and insurance industries are still expected to invest over $1.6 billion in 2020. 

As supply chains reel under pressure, IDC expects the manufacturing and resources sector to see the fastest growth in blockchain spending with a CAGR of 60.5% over the 2018-23 period. This is followed by the distribution and services sector, which will grow at a CAGR of 58.7%.

Blockchain use case impact

Cross-border payment and settlements, product provenance, and others will take the top spot for blockchain investment in 2020, accounting for 16.8%. Manufacturing and distribution companies will focus on the provenance of goods, while decentralized identity will receive significant interest from banking, government, and healthcare entities. 

“This is due largely to the unique characteristics of blockchain technology such as decentralization, transparency, and redundancy,” said James Wester, Research Director for Worldwide Blockchain Strategies. 

“These are traits that many existing technology approaches in supply chains, healthcare, and financial services lack today – it is the lack of these features that have exposed issues in the way we currently do things such as track foods or distribute pharmaceuticals.” 

 

来自: Ledger Insights