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Consumer confidence perks up in nation

2020-7-15 10:20


Shoppers buy fruit at a store in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province. JIA MINJIE/FOR CHINA DAILY

 

Consumer confidence regained ground in China as work resumption greatly advanced by the middle of the year and more people are expected to increase spending over the next three months, a report by UBS Securities said on Tuesday.

 

The international brokerage identified digitalization, health, and consumption upgrade as the dominating trends defining the sequential consumption rebound after a deep plunge caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Tracking 3,000 Chinese consumers from different cities, age and income groups on their finances and consumption pattern, the study conducted in May found that 61 percent of the respondents expect their income to increase, while 58 percent planned to increase consumption in the next three months.

 

Such optimism is backed by the fact that an overriding 94 percent of the respondents had reported work resumption by late May, up from just 52 percent in a similar survey in March.

 

Areas where most respondents planned to increase spending are sports and gymnasiums, as well as medical and healthcare sectors. Consumption upgrade is continuing with 77 percent of the respondents indicating that they would pay more for better products.

 

"While explosive spending for pent-up demand is unlikely, we do anticipate some substantial pickup in spending as people need to perk up their moods after enduring lockdowns and COVID-19 related immobility," said Peng Yanyan, head of China Consumer Sector at UBS.

 

This will give market-leaders in each segment a further leg up, securing an even larger share, said Chen Yang, a UBS consumer staples analyst.

 

For instance, Chinese milk tea chain HEYTEA opened its 500th outlet worldwide on Monday in Shanghai's downtown East Nanjing Road, as it quickly shed the pandemic-related negative effect strangling many food and beverage enterprises.

 

The store decorated in black and golden colors, which the company said indicates "prime design in prime locations", sits adjacent to the city's premier shopping center Shanghai New World Daimaru, suggesting strong bargaining power in securing store location by topper-forming brands.

 

"We have witnessed a conspicuous acceleration of new store openings since the second quarter," said Peng. "It's indeed a good timing to obtain an ideal location as business orders are still normalizing."

 

The consumption upgrade trend is continuing, albeit blunted by the COVID-19 shock. Over three quarters of respondents said they are willing to pay more for goods of premium quality and services, and over half would choose self-improvement items such as education and sports. This preference is especially noticeable among residents in top-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai.

 

Analysts remain optimistic about prospects of domestic luxury market, though it has inevitably suffered from restrained overseas travel and short-term income uncertainties.

 

"Generally speaking, higher-income groups are a lot less vulnerable to the economic shock compared to the lower-income population," said Peng. "So these demands did not simply vanish-people just lack the previous common purchase channels, such as during outbound travel or duty-free shops."

 

She expects the luxury segment to recover in the second quarter, especially as steady income growth is back on track and new business entities such as duty-free shops in city centers start to take root in the country over time.

 

购物者在河北省石家庄市的一家商店购买水果。贾敏杰/中国日报


瑞银证券(UBS Securities)周二发布的一份报告称,随着工作在年中大幅恢复,以及未来三个月预计将有更多的人增加支出,中国的消费者信心已经恢复。


该国际经纪公司认为,数字化、健康和消费升级是引领消费在COVID-19大流行造成的深度下跌后出现连续反弹的主要趋势。


这项5月份开展的研究对来自不同城市、年龄和收入群体的3000名中国消费者的财务状况和消费模式进行了跟踪,结果发现,61%的受访者预计自己的收入会增加,58%的受访者计划在未来三个月内增加消费。


支持这种乐观情绪的事实是,超过94%的受访者表示,截至5月底已恢复工作,高于3月类似调查的52%。


大多数受访者计划增加支出的领域是体育和体育馆,以及医疗和保健部门。消费升级仍在继续,77%的受访者表示他们愿意为更好的产品花更多的钱。


瑞银(UBS)中国消费部门主管彭燕燕表示:“尽管不太可能出现因被压抑的需求而出现爆炸式支出的情况,但我们确实预计支出将出现大幅增长,因为在经历了疫情封锁和因新冠肺炎而导致的行动不活跃之后,人们需要提振情绪。”


瑞银(UBS)日用消费品分析师陈扬说,这将使各领域的市场领军企业进一步占据优势,获得更大的市场份额。


例如,中国奶茶连锁店全茶(HEYTEA)周一在上海市中心的南京东路开设了全球第500家门店,迅速摆脱了令许多食品和饮料企业窒息的疫情负面影响。


这家店的装潢为黑色和金色,该公司表示,这意味着“黄金地段的黄金设计”,它毗邻上海首屈一指的购物中心上海新世界大丸,这表明,通过打造顶级品牌,在获得店面位置方面具有强大的议价能力。


彭说:“自第二季度以来,我们看到新店开张的速度明显加快。”“这确实是获得一个理想地点的好时机,因为业务订单仍在正常进行。”


消费升级的趋势仍在继续,尽管受COVID-19冲击的影响有所减弱。超过四分之三的受访者表示,他们愿意花更多的钱购买优质商品和服务,超过一半的受访者会选择教育和体育等自我完善的项目。这种偏好在北京、上海等一线城市尤为明显。


分析人士对国内奢侈品市场的前景仍持乐观态度,尽管它不可避免地受到了境外旅游受限和短期收入不确定性的影响。


彭说:“一般来说,高收入人群比低收入人群更不易受到经济冲击。”“所以这些需求并不是简单的消失,人们只是缺乏以往常见的购买渠道,比如出境游或免税店。”


她预计奢侈品行业将在第二季度复苏,尤其是随着收入稳定增长回到正轨,以及城市中心免税店等新业务实体开始在中国扎根。


 

 

原作者: HE WEI 来自: china daily