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芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货周价大多因经济刺激计划而走高

2020-7-27 13:16

新华社芝加哥7月25日电(记者陈建平)由于欧盟出台了2万亿美元的经济刺激计划,全球各国政府以充裕的流动性应对经济困境,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货价格大幅上涨。


总部位于芝加哥的咨询公司AgResource认为,在失业、经济信心缺乏和资金周转不畅导致消费者需求放缓之际,政府的新救助计划不会引发通胀。该公司表示,这项援助将填补资金缺口,维持失业工人的生计。


CBOT玉米期货收低,因美国中部天气好转,且美国周乙醇需求小幅下降。COVID-19的进一步蔓延和地区封锁的可能再度出现,对2020年底之前美国的汽油消费都是不利的兆头。


直到8月上半月,美国中部的天气都将近乎完美。最重要的是,主要玉米产区的气温将在正常或低于正常水平。几场降雨将增加美国玉米的产量潜力。


玉米市场的长期目标仍是明年减产,因美国2020/21年度库存升至30亿蒲式耳上方。美国南部的玉米将在6周后开始收获。


美国小麦期货本周收高,得益于上周五的强劲涨势。但到目前为止,新作物年的全球需求不足拖累了油价上涨。


由于加拿大的产量潜力在上升,南半球的天气依然有利且没有威胁,除非进口商转向美国寻求供应,否则很难完全看好小麦。AgResource称,近期内不太可能出现这种情况,因美国海湾地区的小麦价格明显高于其他地区的小麦。


AgResource维持对小麦的中性展望。


大豆期货本周走高,受基金持续买盘和中国买盘美国现货大豆支撑。大豆现货期货一度收于9美元以上,为1月份以来的最高周收。


美国每周出口销售报告显示,新旧作物总销售为9,800万蒲式耳。此外,本周对中国和一些未知目的地的出口销售额总计6400万蒲式耳。


但由于8月中旬美国天气预报良好,AgResource预计大豆作物状况评级将上升1- 2%,支撑美国大豆产量达到51蒲式耳/英亩。


过去几周来自中国的大豆购买量超过了预期。交易商怀疑,在美国股市不断上涨的情况下,这种买入步伐能否持续下去AgResource指出,中美政治关系紧张。


AgResource指出,在美国和世界经济放缓之际,很难看好大宗商品的整体价值,持有大宗商品将在今年第三季度走软。

 

CHICAGO, July 25 (Xinhua) -- Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures mostly went up on a new 2-trillion-dollar stimulus package in the European Union, as governments worldwide respond to struggling economy with abundant liquidity.

Chicago-based consulting company AgResource did not see the new government aid as inflationary amid slowing consumer demand tied to job losses and a lack of economic confidence and money velocity. The aid is going to plug funding holes and sustain unemployed workers, the company said.

CBOT corn futures ended weaker as Central U.S. weather improved and U.S. weekly ethanol demand edged lower. The further spread of COVID-19 and likely return to regional lockdowns bodes negatively for U.S. gasoline consumption into late 2020.

Central U.S. weather will be nearly perfect into the first half of August. Most important is that temperatures moving forward will be at or below normal across the primary Corn Belt. Several rain events will be adding to U.S. corn yield potential.

Longer term goal of the corn market remains to reduce acres next year as U.S. 2020/21 stocks rise above 3,000 million bushels. Corn harvest will start in 6 weeks across the Southern United States.

U.S. wheat futures ended the week higher thanks to Friday's strong rally. But lack of global demand so far in the new crop year has weighed on rallies.

As yield potential is rising in Canada and weather in Southern Hemisphere remained favorable and non-threatening, it's difficult to be outright bullish of wheat unless importers turn to the United States for supply. AgResource said this is unlikely in the near-term as U.S. Gulf wheat is offered at noticeable premium to competing origins.

AgResource maintained a neutral wheat outlook.

Soybean futures were higher for the week with support from continued fund buying and Chinese buying of U.S. cash soybeans. The spot futures of soybean once closed over 9 dollars, marking the highest weekly close since January.

The weekly U.S. Export Sales report showed combined old crop/new crop sales of 98 million bushels. Moreover, export sales announcements through the week to China and unknown destinations totaled 64 million bushels.

But with a favorable U.S. weather forecast into mid-August, AgResource looks for a 1 to 2 percent increase in soybean crop condition ratings, which supports a 51-bushel-per-acre U.S. soybean yield.

Soybean buying from China in the past several weeks has been larger than expected. Traders doubt if this pace of buying is sustainable amid rising U.S.-China political tensions, AgResource noted.

Amid slowing U.S. and world economy, it's difficult to be bullish on broad commodity values, AgResource noted, holding the commodities will weaken in the third quarter of this year.

 

来自: xinhua