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焦点:在新冠肺炎疫情再度抬头之际,美联储将讨论出台更多经济刺激措施

2020-7-29 11:51

 

华盛顿,7月28日(新华社)——美国联邦储备理事会(美联储,fed)料将讨论如何coronavirus-ravaged提供更多刺激经济在其周二开始为期两天的政策会议,但央行不太可能宣布本周重大政策变化,尽管最近复兴COVID-19情况下,分析师表示。


俄勒冈大学(University of Oregon)教授、长期关注美联储的蒂姆?杜伊(Tim Duy)周一在一篇博客文章中写道:“美联储陷入了两难境地,一方面是今年春天采取的紧急行动,另一方面是将于今年晚些时候采取的支撑复苏的后续措施。”


"本周最可能出现的结果是政策没有改变,但声明和新闻发布会的基调将较为温和," Duy表示。他指的是美联储会后声明和主席杰罗姆•鲍威尔定于周三下午召开的新闻发布会。


美联储在3月的两次非正式会议上将利率降至接近零,并开始购买大量美国公债和机构抵押贷款支持证券,以修复金融市场。它还公布了新的贷款计划,提供高达2.3万亿美元以支持经济,以应对冠状病毒的爆发。


自美联储6月初上次会议以来的一个显著变化是,许多州的冠状病毒感染率有所上升,至少有22个州暂停或部分逆转了它们重新开放经济的努力。


穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)的经济学家莱恩•斯威特(Ryan Sweet)说,尽管美联储可能会承认新冠肺炎(COVID-19)的复苏对其前景构成下行风险,但本周的会后声明不太可能有重大变化。


他说:“我们预计本周的联邦公开市场委员会(fomc)会议不会有任何重大结果。资产购买的步伐将保持不变,而联邦基金利率和超额准备金利率的目标区间将不会调整,”Sweet周一在一份报告中写道。


但分析师表示,在本周的会议上,美联储官员将继续讨论如何为受冠状病毒重创的经济提供更多刺激措施,这可能为在9月会议上宣布新策略铺平道路。


"我们预计7月会议将开启为期两个月的有关未来几年货币和利率政策方向的热烈讨论,"会计和咨询公司RSM US LLP首席分析师Joseph Brusuelas表示。


"美联储的挑战与创造条件政策路径,将允许中央银行应对各种可能的结果在经济严重受损的进化,在大流行的背景下,和约束施加的极化的政治部门,”joseph写上周的分析。


Brusuelas预计,美联储将在9月宣布将政策转向"平均通胀目标",在对央行政策进行18个月的评估后,这应会给长期利率带来明显的下行压力。


“我们假设美联储9月份变更提出指导,当可能的审查政策框架将完成,“也甜,添加新的指导可能会输出量和转发关注通胀持续回到央行2%的目标。


换句话说,美联储将承诺不加息,直到通胀显示出维持或略高于目标的迹象。这将与美联储采用平均通胀目标制相一致。


然而,大型会计公司均富(Grant Thornton)的首席经济学家戴安•斯旺克(Diane Swonk)认为,美联储最早应在本周改变其前瞻性指引。


“为什么是现在,而不是大多数人预期的9月份?”因COVID-19而住院和死亡的死灰复灰正在对经济增长造成影响。消费者支出充其量也只是达到了平稳期。就业在最近几周实际上可能已经收缩,”Swonk在周日的分析中写道。


“现在美联储中有些人宁愿等到经济状况进一步恶化后再采取行动。考虑到经济损失产生和加剧的速度,我宁可宁可谨慎,现在要做得更多。”Swonk补充道。


与此同时,数百万美国人所依赖的扩大后的联邦失业救济金将于本月底到期,而美国议员们还没有解决下一份新冠肺炎救助法案的规模和范围上的分歧。


穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)首席经济学家马克•赞迪(Mark Zandi)警告称:“除非国会和特朗普政府在国会8月份休会前拿出另一套财政救助方案,否则美国经济面临重新滑入衰退的严重风险——双底衰退或w型衰退。”

 

WASHINGTON, July 28 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to debate how to provide more stimulus to the coronavirus-ravaged economy at its two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday, but the central bank is unlikely to announce major policy changes this week despite a recent resurgence in COVID-19 cases, analysts said.

"The Fed is stuck between the emergency actions of this past spring and the next steps to bolster the recovery that will come later this year," Tim Duy, professor of the University of Oregon and a long-time Fed watcher, wrote Monday in a blog post.

"The most likely outcome for this week is no policy change but a dovish tone to the statement and the press conference," Duy said, referring to the Fed's post-meeting statement and Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference scheduled Wednesday afternoon.

The Fed cut interest rates to near zero at two unscheduled meetings in March and began purchasing massive quantities of U.S. treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to repair financial markets. It also unveiled new lending programs to provide up to 2.3 trillion U.S. dollars to support the economy in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

A notable change since the Fed's last meeting in early June is that coronavirus infection rates have accelerated in many states and at least 22 states have either paused or partially reversed their efforts to reopen their economies.

While the Fed could acknowledge the resurgence of COVID-19 as a downside risk to its outlook, this week's post-meeting statement is unlikely to have significant changes, according to Ryan Sweet, an economist with Moody's Analytics.

"We do not expect anything significant out of this week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. The pace of asset purchases will remain unchanged, while neither the target range for the fed funds rate nor the interest rate on excess reserves will be adjusted," Sweet wrote Monday in a note.

But Fed officials will continue debating how to provide more stimulus to the coronavirus-ravaged economy at this week's meeting, which could pave the way for announcing a new strategy at its September meeting, analysts said.

"We expect the July meeting to kick off a lively two months of discussion over the direction of monetary and interest rate policy in the coming years," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at accounting and consulting firm RSM US LLP.

"The Fed is challenged with creating the conditions for a policy path that will permit the central bank to respond to a wide range of possible outcomes around the evolution of a severely impaired economy, within the context of the pandemic, and constraints imposed by the polarization of the political sector," Brusuelas wrote last week in an analysis.

Brusuelas expected the Fed to announce a shift in the policy regime toward "an average inflation targeting" in September, which should put significant downward pressure on longer-term interest rates following the 18-month review of central bank policy.

"We assume the Fed changes its forward guidance in September, when it is likely that the review of its policy framework will be complete," echoed Sweet, adding the new forward guidance will likely be outcome-based and focused on inflation returning on a sustained basis to the central bank's 2 percent objective.

"In other words, the Fed would commit to not raising interest rates until inflation shows signs of sticking at or slightly above the objective. This would be consistent with the Fed adopting average inflation targeting," Sweet explained.

However, Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, a major accounting firm, argued that the Fed should change its forward guidance as soon as this week.

"Why now instead of in September as most are expecting? The resurgence in hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 is taking a toll on growth. Consumer spending has, at best, hit a plateau. Employment may have actually contracted in recent weeks," Swonk wrote Sunday in an analysis.

"There are some on the Fed now who would rather wait to act until economic conditions further deteriorate. I would err on the side of caution and do more now, given the speed with which economic losses arise and compound," Swonk added.

The Fed meeting also came as the enhanced federal unemployment benefits that millions of Americans rely upon are set to expire at the end of this month, and U.S. lawmakers haven't settled their differences over the size and scope of the next COVID-19 relief bill.

"The economy is at serious risk of sliding back into recession-a double dip or W-shape path-unless Congress and the Trump administration come up with another fiscal rescue package before Congress goes on its August recess," warned Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

 

来自: xinhua