找回密码
 立即注册
首页 黑乌鸦事件 查看内容
  • QQ空间

随着COVID-19疫情加剧,美国经济出现了几十年来最严重的收缩

2020-7-31 11:07

 

2020年7月20日,游客参观美国纽约的自由岛。(新华社/王英)


美国第二季经济环比年率萎缩32.9%,为政府自1947年开始记录该数据以来的最大降幅。


“今年晚些时候,与大流行有关的不确定性继续给前景蒙上阴影,”一位分析师说。


新华社华盛顿7月30日电(记者陈晓明)今年4月至6月,美国经济出现了几十年来最严重的收缩,这表明了疫情引发的经济衰退的深度和严重程度。


美国商务部星期四公布,美国经济第二季度折合成年率收缩了32.9%。这是政府自1947年开始记录数据以来的最大跌幅。


在2020年第一季度,实际GDP以每年5%的速度萎缩。


富国证券(Wells Fargo Securities)首席经济学家Jay H. Bryson在一份分析报告中写道:“对数据进行分析后,我们发现多数支出分项普遍疲弱,鉴于美国经济在3月中旬至5月中旬期间或多或少处于停滞状态,这并不令人意外。”


减少实际国内生产总值(GDP)下降反映在个人消费支出(PCE)出口,私人存货投资,非住宅固定投资、住宅固定投资,以及州和地方政府开支,部分抵消了联邦政府开支的增加,根据“提前”估计美国商务部经济分析局发布的。

 

第二季个人消费支出年率骤降34.6%,对当季GDP造成25个百分点的拖累。反映企业支出的非住宅固定投资第二季减少27%,令GDP缩水3.62个百分点。


Bryson称,唯一的增长领域是联邦政府支出增长17.4%,这在很大程度上反映了第三季为小企业提供的薪资保障计划(PPP)贷款的管理成本。


Jason Furman,哈佛大学教授、前总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)经济顾问指出,州政府和地方政府支出年率下降5.6%,第二季度,他说,“不是最大的贡献者GDP的下降但也许最不必要的。”


“这有望是我们将看到的最后一个GDP出现负增长的季度。这有望是我们将看到的最后一个消费出现负增长的季度。”“但由于缺乏迅速而实质性的行动,州和地方支出(折合年率)下降5.6%可能只是个开始。”


艰难的救援谈判


与此同时,共和党和民主党议员仍远未就新的救助方案达成协议,而对各州和各城市的直接援助是谈判的症结之一。

 

民主党在之前公布的3万亿美元的救助计划中,提议为陷入困境的州和地方政府提供1万亿美元的援助,而共和党则不打算提供新的资金。


参议院共和党人星期一公布的1万亿美元的提案将把联邦失业救济金从600美元削减到200美元,到今年9月为止,加上州福利,失业工人将得到以前工资的70%左右。而民主党人则希望在明年1月之前保持目前的失业救济金水平。


随着救助计划的谈判陷入僵局,美国劳工部周四报告说,上周首次申请失业救济的人数上升到143万,新冠肺炎病例在前一周有所增加之后又重新出现。


另外600美元的失业救济金将于周五到期,富国证券的高级经济学家萨拉·豪斯在一份分析报告中写道,对于3000多万领取失业保险的工人来说,“风险很高”。

 

华盛顿智库彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)主席亚当·波森(Adam Posen)本周早些时候告诉新华社,尽管救助方案目前陷入僵局,但他仍然“有信心”在国会8月休会前通过一些救助方案。


他说:“我预计这个计划的规模将在2万亿美元左右,其中包括扩大失业问题,以及对州和地方政府提供一些援助。这将带来一些好处,”波森说。


不确定的复苏


由于新冠肺炎病例出现令人担忧的死灰复燃,已有20多个州暂停或部分取消了重新开放的努力。分析人士认为,这可能会破坏刚刚开始的经济复苏。

 

周三,全国COVID-19死亡人数超过15万人,得克萨斯州、佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州的每日死亡人数均创下纪录。截至周四,美国报告的病例超过440万例,约占全球病例的四分之一。


尽管月度数据显示,经济从5月份开始反弹,但Bryson表示,最近的每周指标表明,由于近几周COVID-19病例激增,经济正再次“失去动力”。


月度数据显示,第三季国内生产总值(GDP)应会反弹,但"与疫情有关的不确定性在今年晚些时候继续笼罩经济前景," Bryson称。

 

美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)周三也指出,经济的走势将在很大程度上取决于病毒的传播过程。


美联储在结束为期两天的政策会议后发表声明称:“近期内,持续的公共卫生危机将严重影响经济活动、就业和通胀,并对中期内的经济前景构成相当大的风险。”


美联储将基准利率维持在接近零的历史低位不变,并预计将维持这一利率水平,“直到它确信经济已经渡过了最近的难关”。


波森在接受新华社采访时表示:“控制疫情对促进经济复苏既必要又充分。”“公共卫生方面的失败将导致事实上的经济关闭,无论地方政府或联邦政府是否发布关闭命令。”


彼得森国际经济研究所主席说,只有当人们认为自己或家人死亡的风险稳定或迅速下降时,他们才会在有选择的情况下重新消费和工作。


“封锁和不封锁的区别在于你能多快地控制疫情,而不是经济,”波森说。

 

Visitors tour the Liberty Island in New York, the United States, July 20, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter, the deepest decline since the government began keeping records in 1947.

"Uncertainties related to the pandemic continue to cloud the outlook later this year," an analyst said.

WASHINGTON, July 30 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. economy saw the sharpest contraction in decades between April and June as the country grappled with the fallout of COVID-19 lockdowns, indicating the depth and severity of the pandemic-induced recession.

The U.S. economy contracted at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday. It was the deepest decline since the government began keeping records in 1947.

In the first quarter of 2020, real GDP contracted at an annual rate of 5 percent.

"Parsing through the data reveals broad-based weakness in most of the spending components, which comes as little surprise given that the economy was more or less shut down from mid-March through mid-May," Jay H. Bryson, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis.

The decrease in real gross domestic product (GDP) reflected decreases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by an increase in federal government spending, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

A vender waits for customers at a kiosk on Times Square in New York, the United States, July 23, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

The PCE plunged at an annual rate of 34.6 percent in the second quarter, generating a 25-percentage-point drag on the GDP in the quarter. Nonresidential fixed investment, which reflects business spending, decreased by 27 percent in the second quarter, subtracting 3.62 percentage points from GDP.

Bryson said the only area of growth was the 17.4-percent rise in federal government spending, which largely reflects the administrative costs of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for small businesses that were extended during the quarter.

Jason Furman, professor at Harvard University and former economic adviser to President Barack Obama, noted that state and local government spending fell by an annual rate of 5.6 percent in the second quarter, which, he said, was "not the largest contributor to the decline in GDP but perhaps the most unnecessary."

"This is hopefully the last negative quarter we'll see for GDP. This is hopefully the last negative quarter we'll see for consumption," Furman said on Twitter. "But absent swift and substantial action, the 5.6 percent decline (annual rate) in state and local spending could just be the beginning."

TOUGH RELIEF NEGOTIATIONS

Meanwhile, Republican and Democratic lawmakers are still far from reaching a deal on a new relief package, with direct aid to states and cities one of the sticking points in the negotiation.

Pedestrians walk on a street in Los Angeles County, the United States, on July 4, 2020.(Xinhua)

Democrats proposed 1 trillion U.S. dollars in aid for struggling state and local governments in their previously unveiled 3-trillion-dollar relief proposal, while Republicans planned to offer no new money.

The Senate Republicans' 1-trillion-dollar proposal, revealed Monday, would slash the federal unemployment benefits from 600 dollars to 200 dollars through September, giving an unemployed worker about 70 percent of previous wages when combined with state benefits, while Democrats want to maintain the current level of benefits through January.

As negotiations for the relief package stall, the Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose to 1.43 million last week amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, following an increase in the previous week.

Noting that the extra 600 dollars unemployment benefits are set to expire Friday, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities, wrote in an analysis that the "stakes are high" with more than 30 million workers collecting unemployment insurance.

Photo taken on July 4, 2020 shows the closed Santa Monica beach in Los Angeles County, the United States. (Xinhua)

Despite the current stalemate on relief package, Adam Posen, president of Washington-based think tank Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), told Xinhua earlier this week that he remains "confident" that some relief bill will be agreed before Congress goes on August recess.

"I expect it will be in the $2 trillion size range, it will include some extension of unemployment and some aid to state and local governments. And it will do some good," Posen said.

UNCERTAIN RECOVERY

Over 20 states have already paused or partially reversed reopening efforts amid an alarming resurgence of COVID-19 cases, which, according to analysts, could undermine the nascent economic recovery.

The COVID-19 death toll across the country surpassed 150,000 on Wednesday, with Texas, Florida and California reporting record daily fatalities. As of Thursday, more than 4.4 million cases have been reported in the United States, accounting for about a quarter of the cases worldwide.

While monthly data show that the economy bounced starting in May, Bryson said recent weekly indicators suggest that the economy is "losing momentum" again as COVID-19 cases have spiked in recent weeks.

Monthly data suggest that GDP should bounce in the third quarter, but "uncertainties related to the pandemic continue to cloud the outlook later this year," Bryson said.

A police officer looks at a closed Broadway theater in New York, the United States, June 29, 2020. (Xinhua/Wang Ying)

The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday also noted that the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.

"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the Fed said in a statement after concluding a two-day policy meeting.

The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the record-low level of near zero, and expects to maintain the rate "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events."

"Control of the disease is both necessary and sufficient to promote recovery of the economy," Posen told Xinhua. "Failures in public health will lead to de facto economic shutdowns, whether or not the local or federal governments issue the shutdown orders."

The PIIE president said people will only go back to spending and to work, to the degree they have choice, when they think the risk of them or their families dying is stabilized or rapidly falling.

"The difference between lockdown and not is in how fast you get control of the outbreak, not the economy," Posen said.

 

来自: xinhua