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一些中国经济学家和学者预测美元的主导地位将终结,但不仅仅是通过数字人民币

2020-7-31 11:35

 

本周,中国媒体上出现了多篇关于美元主导地位和中国央行数字货币(CBDC)可能终结的文章。其中一人称制裁的威胁使美元迅速失去可信度。另一种设想是,数字人民币(DCEP)可以创建一条护城河,保护中国经济免受美国的冲击扩张性的货币政策。


中国工商银行国际银行(ICBC International bank)的首席经济学家钱军介绍了2008年的危机如何增加了对美元流动性的依赖。而最近进一步的货币宽松政策也会加剧这种情况。但这并不是没有退出的风险。


他认为,如果存在天秤座或数字美元,将进一步增加对美元的依赖。但“如果DCEP能抓住这一历史机遇,将其与‘一带一路’建设和全球价值链重构相结合,将促进人民币国际化和‘网络效应’,”Jun写道。


他说,这是在打造一条“金融护城河”,保护中国经济不受美元流动性的影响。

SWIFT对制裁的使用会引发美元化吗?


来自上海金融学院的刘晓春用了一个不同的比喻来形容美国,一堵墙。前中国浙商银行行长(同时也是中国共产党的代表)斥责美国政府“不理性”,并警告说香港有被SWIFT拒之门外的风险。此后,中国银行(Bank of China)将这种担忧扩大到了中国内地。


小春的意见措辞激烈。“有一件事是肯定的,现任美国政府正在迅速采取行动,美元将失去信誉,”他写道。“一堵墙真的是把别人拒之门外,所以为什么不把自己封闭在这堵墙里呢?”美国可能已经开始了世界去美元化的进程。”

计划回避斯威夫特


他说,绕过SWIFT和美元清算系统的道路不是一蹴而就的。我们将一个建议解释为,银行可以集中交易,并在可能的情况下在内部为进口商和出口商结算收支,而不进行单独的支付,而只进行外部净交易。


这位前世行行长建议将这种模式扩展到银行网络。但即使金额较低,仍需要进行海外支付。没有提到反洗钱程序在这种情况下如何对外国对手银行起作用。


至于网络国际支付,他建议与愿意合作的个别外国银行建立合作关系。该建议是,将与中东、西欧和东欧以及东盟国家的银行建立一个替代的信息传递系统。不出所料,他提出区块链和数字货币是潜在的技术,但他指的是纯粹用于清算的美元和数字货币,而不是数字人民币。


这个问题只能通过世界的逐步去美元化来解决。美国越是欺凌弱小,去美元化的步伐就会越快。”

建议去美元化,即使它不是人民币


他提出了人民币国际化的几个建议,包括用人民币而不是美元进行交易;在中国境外创建更多人民币融资实体;确保中国CIPS人民币跨境支付系统接收SWIFT以外的信息。


对于“一带一路”项目,他说人民币应该是首选货币,但如果不可能,非美元货币应该是首选。

 

DCEP是纯国产的吗?


相比之下,另一位学者走的是外交之路。中央财经大学的陈波对七国集团(G7)讨论将中国排除在外的CBDC的消息做出了回应。他在政府支持的《环球时报》上用英文撰文称,国际社会对中国数字货币计划的敌意是错误的,因为人民币主要用于国内零售。“金融系统的数字化升级被误解为对美元的挑战。这给数字货币带来了压力。”


他鼓励中国积极参与全球汇率讨论。


目前还不清楚这一连串的新闻报道,包括这里没有提到的其他报道,是巧合还是精心策划的努力。最近中国和欧盟之间的讨论中,只有中国提到了关于数字货币的合作,这让人怀疑这是有意增加讨论。

 

This week there have been multiple articles in the Chinese press about the potential end of the U.S. dollar’s dominance and China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC). One described threats of sanctions as making SWIFT and the dollar lose credibility. Another envisions the digital yuan (or DCEP) as creating a moat to protect the Chinese economy from the U.S.’ expansionist monetary policy.

Qian Jun, the chief economist of China’s ICBC International bank, a division of the world’s largest company, outlined how the 2008 crisis increased dependence on the liquidity of the U.S. dollar. And the recent additional monetary easing would add to that. But it’s not without risks of unwinding.

He believes if there were a Libra or digital dollar, it would further increase dependence on the dollar. But “if DCEP can seize this historical opportunity and combine it with the ‘Belt and Road’ construction and global value chain reconstruction, it will promote the internationalization of the RMB and the ‘network effect’,” wrote Jun.

He described this as creating a “financial moat” to protect the Chinese economy from the impact of U.S. dollar liquidity.

SWIFT’s use for sanctions could trigger de-dollarization?

Liu Xiaochun, from the Shanghai Finance Institute, used a different metaphor for the U.S., a wall. The former President of China Zheshang Bank (and Communist Party representative) lambasted the U.S. government as “irrational” and warned of the risk of Hong Kong being shut out of SWIFT. The Bank of China has since expanded this concern to mainland China.

Xiaochun’s opinions were strongly worded. “One thing is certain, the current U.S. government is making SWIFT and the dollar lose credibility,” he wrote. “A wall really keeps others out of the wall, so why not enclose yourself in the wall? The United States may have begun the process of de-dollarization of the world.”

Plans to sidestep SWIFT

He said the road to bypassing SWIFT and the U.S. dollar clearing system is not an overnight one. We interpret one suggestion as rather than making individual payments, a bank can pool transactions and where possible internally settle receipts and payment for importers and exporters and only do external net transactions. 

The former bank president suggested expanding this model to a network of banks. But a foreign payment leg is still required, even if the amount is less. Not mentioned was how anti money laundering procedures would work in this scenario for the foreign counterparty bank.

For the net international payments, he proposed relationships with individual foreign banks who were willing to cooperate. The suggestion is that an alternative messaging system would be created with banks in the Middle East, Western and Eastern Europe and ASEAN countries. Unsurprisingly, he put forward blockchain and digital currencies as potential technologies, but he was referring to dollars and digital currency purely for clearing as opposed to the digital yuan. 

“This problem can only be solved by the gradual de-dollarization of the world. The more bullying the United States acts, the faster the pace of de-dollarization will be.”

Suggests de-dollarization even if it’s not renminbi

He had several suggestions to internationalize the renminbi (RMB), including denominating transactions in RMB rather than dollars; creating more renminbi financing entities outside of China; and ensuring that the Chinese CIPS RMB cross border payment system accepts messages other than SWIFT. 

For Belt and Road projects, he said RMB should be the currency of choice, but if that’s not possible, a non dollar currency should be a preference. 

Is the DCEP purely domestic?

In contrast, another academic took the diplomacy path. Chen Bo of the Central University of Finance and Economics responded to news about G7 discussions of a CBDC in which China is excluded. Writing in English in the government-backed Global Times, he claimed that international hostility towards China’s digital currency plans was misplaced as the currency is primarily for domestic retail use. “The digitalization upgrade of the financial system has been misinterpreted as a challenge to the U.S. dollar. This has put pressure on the digital currency,” said Bo.

He encouraged China to participate in global currency discussions proactively.

It’s unclear whether this flurry of press articles, including others not mentioned here, is a coincidence or an orchestrated effort. The recent discussions between China and the EU in which only China mentioned cooperation about digital currencies, leaves the suspicion this is a deliberate increase in chatter.

 

来自: Ledger Insights