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欧洲央行保持货币政策不变,将关注欧元的升值

2020-9-11 13:33

 

2020年9月10日,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德在德国法兰克福的欧洲央行总部出席新闻发布会。欧洲央行(ECB)周四决定维持关键利率不变,并对其前瞻性指引和资产购买计划保持不变。(ECB /新华社)


新华网法兰克福9月10日电欧洲央行10日决定,维持基准利率不变,不改变前瞻指导和资产购买计划。


根据欧洲央行货币政策会议后发布的新闻稿,欧元区19个成员国的基本利率将保持在0.00%,边际贷款利率和存款利率将分别保持在0.25%和- 0.50%。


欧洲央行管理委员会说,它将继续根据流行病紧急购买计划进行购买,总额为1.35万亿欧元(约合1.6万亿美元),以及定期的资产购买计划。


该行表示,将继续通过再融资操作提供充足的流动性,并补充称,最近的操作是第三系列定向较长期再融资操作(TLTRO III)。“获得了非常高的资金吸收,支持了银行向企业和家庭放贷。”


它还重申,理事会“继续随时准备适当调整其所有工具,以确保通胀按照其对对称的承诺,以持续的方式向其目标移动”。


在一个宏观经济状况的分析,欧洲央行总裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)说,上一次政策会议以来传入的数据表明强劲反弹之前活动大致符合预期,但反弹的力度仍不确定,离开欧洲央行确认其宽松的货币政策立场。


注意到工业和服务业生产的显著反弹以及消费明显复苏的迹象,拉加德还提到,与制造业相比,服务业的增长势头最近有所放缓。


总的来说,欧洲央行的工作人员预测,在基线情景下,欧元区的年度实际GDP将在2020年下降8.0%,2021年增长5.0%,2022年增长3.2%。与6月份的预测相比,2020年的GDP增长前景略有上调,2021年和2022年的GDP增长前景基本没有变化。


欧洲央行预计,2020年的年通胀率为0.3%,2021年为1.0%,2022年为1.3%。与三个月前的预测相比,2020年和2022年的通胀前景没有变化,2021年和2022年的通胀前景都没有变化。


"短期内,由于需求疲弱、薪资压力降低和欧元汇率升值,物价压力将继续减弱," Lagarde说,并补充说,需求复苏将在中期内再次给通胀带来上行压力。


在周四的新闻发布会上,欧元汇率是一个主要问题。欧元自3月份以来大幅升值,并在上周触及了两年来的高点1.20美元。


在回答几个有关欧元升值的问题时,拉加德表示,欧洲央行官员已经讨论过这一进展,因为它可能给物价带来压力。但她强调,欧洲央行在其任务中并不以汇率为目标。


拉加德表示,欧元汇率将受到“仔细监控”,她与管理委员会的声明一致表示,“将仔细评估收到的信息,包括汇率的发展,以及汇率对中期通胀前景的影响。”


欧元近期大涨,部分与美国联邦储备委员会(fed) 8月底宣布的政策转变有关。美联储表示,目前寻求实现平均2%的通胀率,这一政策策略可能会使短期利率在未来数年保持在接近零的水平。


当被问及欧洲央行自己的货币政策战略评估时,拉加德表示,欧洲央行将很快重启此前因COVID-19大流行而推迟的评估。


拉加德在新闻发布会上说,审查将审查诸如价格稳定目标、欧元系统建模、数字化、气候变化、金融稳定以及货币政策和财政政策的相互作用等主题。

 

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde attends a press conference at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, on Sept. 10, 2020. The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to keep key interest rates unchanged and made no changes to its forward guidance and asset purchase programs. (ECB/Handout via Xinhua)

FRANKFURT, Sept. 10 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday decided to keep key interest rates unchanged and made no changes to its forward guidance and asset purchase programs.

The 19-nation eurozone base interest rate will remain at 0.00 percent, with the marginal lending rate and deposit rate remaining at 0.25 percent and minus 0.50 percent, respectively, according to a press release issued following the ECB's monetary policy meeting.

The ECB's Governing Council said it will continue its purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase program, with a total envelope of 1,350 billion euros (1,600 billion U. S. dollars), as well as its regular asset purchase program.

It said it will also continue to provide ample liquidity through refinancing operations, adding that the latest operation in the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) "has registered a very high take-up of funds, supporting bank lending to firms and households."

It is also reiterated that the Governing Council "continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry."

In an analysis of the macro-economic condition, Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, said that incoming data since last policy meeting suggest a strong rebound in activity broadly in line with previous expectations, but the strength of the rebound remains uncertain, leaving the ECB to reconfirm its accommodative monetary policy stance.

Noting a significant rebound in industrial and services production and signs of a notable recovery in consumption, Lagarde also mentioned that momentum has recently slowed in the services sector compared with the manufacturing sector.

Overall, the ECB staff forecast that, in the baseline scenario, the euro zone annual real GDP will fall by 8.0 percent in 2020, expand by 5.0 percent in 2021 and grow by 3.2 percent in 2022. Compared with projections in June, the GDP growth outlook has been revised slightly up for 2020 and is largely unchanged for 2021 and 2022.

The ECB foresees annual inflation at 0.3 percent in 2020, 1.0 percent in 2021 and 1.3 percent in 2022. The inflation outlook is unchanged for 2020, revised up for 2021, and is unchanged for 2022, compared with projections three months ago.

"In the near term price pressures will remain subdued owing to weak demand, lower wage pressures and the appreciation of the euro exchange rate," Lagarde said, adding that a recovery in demand will put upward pressure on inflation again over the medium term.

The exchange rate of the euro was a major concern at Thursday's press conference. The single currency has appreciated considerably since March and touched a two-year high of 1.20 U.S. dollars last week.

Taking several questions on the rise of the euro, Lagarde said the development has been discussed among the ECB officials, since it could put pressure on prices. But she stressed that the ECB does not target exchange rates in its mandate.

Lagarde said the exchange rate of the euro will be "monitored carefully", chiming in with the Governing Council statement that it "will carefully assess incoming information, including developments in the exchange rate, with regard to its implications for the medium-term inflation outlook."

The recent surge of euro is partly linked to a policy shift announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve in late August. The Fed said it now seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, a policy strategy that is likely to keep short-term interest rates near zero for years.

When asked about the ECB's own monetary policy strategy review, Lagarde said the ECB will soon reactivate the review, which had previously been postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The review will examine topics such as price stability objective, euro-system modeling, digitalization, climate change, financial stability and the interaction of the monetary policy and fiscal policy, Lagarde told the press conference.

 

来自: xinhua