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国际货币基金组织将2020年全球经济预测修正为萎缩4.4%

2020-10-14 14:50

 

国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家Gita Gopinath (C)于2020年10月13日在美国华盛顿特区的一场虚拟新闻发布会上发言。根据最新的世界经济展望(WEO)报告,国际货币基金组织周二预测,2020年全球经济将萎缩4.4%,比6月份的预测高出0.8个百分点。中国预计将增长1.9%,成为今年唯一有望实现增长的主要经济体。(新华社/刘杰)


新华社华盛顿10月13日电国际货币基金组织13日发布最新《世界经济展望》报告,预计2020年全球经济将收缩4.4%,比6月份预测的收缩幅度高0.8个百分点。


“这升级欠少可怕的结果在第二季度,以及在第三季度经济强势复苏的迹象,抵消部分下调一些新兴和发展中经济体,”国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家吉塔Gopinath年会期间在一个虚拟的新闻发布会上说,世界银行集团和国际货币基金组织。


然而,戈皮纳斯说,走出这场灾难的过程很可能是“漫长的、不平衡的、高度不确定的”。“最重要的是,不要过早撤出财政和货币政策支持。”


2021年,经济增长预计将反弹至5.2%,比6月份的预测低0.2个百分点。


报告显示,IMF已将其对发达经济体2020年的预测上调至收缩5.8%,然后在2021年增长反弹至3.9%。


预计美国经济今年将萎缩4.3%,欧元区将萎缩8.3%。英国经济将萎缩9.8%,日本经济可能下滑5.3%。


对于新兴市场和发展中国家(不包括中国),IMF下调了其增长预期,预计2020年增长将萎缩5.7%,然后在2021年复苏至5%。


巴西和俄罗斯经济预计将分别萎缩5.8%和4.1%,而印度经济可能萎缩10.3%。中国预计将增长1.9%,成为今年唯一有望实现增长的主要经济体。


Gopinath指出,新兴市场和发展中经济体(不包括中国)在2020-21年期间人均收入的累计增长预计将低于发达经济体,这意味着这两个群体之间的收入前景差异预计将进一步加剧。


IMF首席经济学家表示,经济前景仍存在巨大的不确定性,有上行和下行风险。


“随着局部封锁重新启动,病毒卷土重来。如果情况恶化,治疗和疫苗的前景恶化,对经济活动的影响将是严重的,并可能被严重的金融市场动荡放大,”Gopinath告诉记者。


她表示:“对贸易和投资的限制日益增加,地缘政治不确定性不断上升,可能会损害复苏。”


她指出,积极的一面是,更快、更广泛地提供COVID-19检测、治疗、疫苗和额外的政策刺激,可以显著改善前景。


"这场危机可能会在中期内留下伤痕,因劳动力市场需要时间来恢复,投资因不确定性和资产负债表问题而受到抑制,而学校教育的缺失会损害人力资本," IMF首席经济学家称。


相对于大流行前预测路径的累计产出损失估计将从2020-2021年的11万亿增加到2020-2025年的28万亿。


虽然相当大的全球近12万亿美元的财政支持和广泛的降息,流动性注入,与央行购买资产,帮助挽救生命和生计和避免金融灾难,Gopinath指出,仍有许多需要做的,以确保持续的复苏。


她说,首先,需要加强国际合作,以结束这一卫生危机。国际货币基金组织估计,如果医疗解决方案能够比其基线更快、更广泛地提供,到2025年底,全球收入将累计增加近9万亿美元。


其次,戈皮纳斯敦促政策制定者——尽可能地——积极专注于限制危机对经济造成的持续损害。


她说,随着经济复苏的加强,政策应该转向促进劳动力的再分配,将劳动力从可能长期萎缩的行业(如旅游)转移到电子商务等增长的行业。


这位国际货币基金组织首席经济学家还指出,新兴市场和发展中经济体——其中许多受到债务上升和借贷成本上升的制约——将需要优先考虑关键的卫生支出和向穷人的转移,并确保最高效率。它们还需要继续得到国际赠款和减让性资金以及债务减免形式的支助。

戈皮纳特说,最后,制定政策时应着眼于让经济走上更强劲、公平和可持续增长的道路。


她说:“这是自大萧条以来最严重的危机,要从这次大封锁中恢复过来,就需要在政策方面进行重大创新,无论是国家层面还是国际层面。”

 

International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief economist Gita Gopinath (C) speaks at a virtual press briefing in Washington D.C., the United States, Oct. 13, 2020. The IMF on Tuesday projected the global economy to contract by 4.4 percent in 2020, 0.8 percentage point above the June forecast, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report. China is expected to grow by 1.9 percent, the only major economy that could see growth this year. (Xinhua/Liu Jie)

WASHINGTON, Oct. 13 (Xinhua) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected the global economy to contract by 4.4 percent in 2020, 0.8 percentage point above the June forecast, according to its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

"This upgrade owes to somewhat less dire outcomes in the second quarter, as well as signs of a stronger recovery in the third quarter, offset partly by downgrades in some emerging and developing economies," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said at a virtual press briefing during the annual meetings of the World Bank Group and the IMF.

The ascent out of this calamity, however, is likely to be "long, uneven, and highly uncertain," Gopinath said. "It is essential that fiscal and monetary policy support are not prematurely withdrawn, as best possible."

In 2021, growth is projected to rebound to 5.2 percent, 0.2 percentage point below the June projection.

The IMF has upgraded its forecast for advanced economies for 2020 to a contraction of 5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021, the report showed.

The U.S. economy is expected to shrink 4.3 percent this year, with the Euro Area on track to contract 8.3 percent. Britain's economy will see a contraction of 9.8 percent, while Japan's economy could decline 5.3 percent.

For emerging market and developing countries (excluding China), the IMF has a downgrade with growth projected to be a contraction of 5.7 percent in 2020 and then a recovery to 5 percent in 2021.

Brazil and Russia are projected to contract by 5.8 and 4.1 percent respectively, while India's economy could see a contraction of 10.3 percent. China is expected to grow by 1.9 percent, the only major economy that could see growth this year.

The cumulative growth in per capita income for emerging-market and developing economies (excluding China) over 2020-21 is projected to be lower than that for advanced economies, which means the divergence in income prospects between the two groups is projected to worsen, Gopinath noted.

There remains tremendous uncertainty around the outlook with both downside and upside risks, the IMF chief economist said.

"The virus is resurging with localized lockdowns being re-instituted. If this worsens and prospects for treatments and vaccines deteriorate, the toll on economic activity would be severe, and likely amplified by severe financial market turmoil," Gopinath told reporters.

"Growing restrictions on trade and investment and rising geopolitical uncertainty could harm the recovery," she said.

On the upside, she noted, faster and more widespread availability of COVID-19 tests, treatments, vaccines, and additional policy stimulus can significantly improve the outlook.

"This crisis will likely leave scars well into the medium term as labor markets take time to heal, investment is held back by uncertainty and balance sheet problems, and lost schooling impairs human capital," the IMF chief economist said.

The cumulative loss in output relative to the pre-pandemic projected path is estimated to grow from 11 trillion over 2020-2021 to 28 trillion over 2020-2025.

While the considerable global fiscal support of close to 12 trillion dollars and the extensive rate cuts, liquidity injections, and asset purchases by central banks helped saved lives and livelihoods and prevented a financial catastrophe, Gopinath noted that there is still much that needs to be done to ensure a sustained recovery.

First, greater international collaboration is needed to end this health crisis, she said. The IMF estimated that if medical solutions can be made available faster and more widely relative to its baseline, it could lead to a cumulative increase in global income of almost 9 trillion dollars by end of 2025.

Second, Gopinath urged policymakers -- to the extent possible -- to aggressively focus on limiting persistent economic damage from the crisis.

Over time, as the recovery strengthens, policies should shift to facilitating reallocation of workers from sectors likely to shrink on a long-term basis, such as travel, to growing sectors like e-commerce, she said.

The IMF chief economist also noted that emerging market and developing economies -- many constrained by elevated debt and higher borrowing costs -- will need to prioritize critical spending for health and transfers to the poor and ensure maximum efficiency. They will also need continued support in the form of international grants and concessional financing, as well as debt relief.

Lastly, policies should be designed with an eye toward placing economies on paths of stronger, equitable, and sustainable growth, Gopinath said.

"This is the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and it will take significant innovation on the policy front, at both the national and international levels to recover from this Great Lockdown," she added.

 

来自: xinhua