找回密码
 立即注册
首页 全球财经资讯 查看内容
  • QQ空间

RCEP有望本周签署 中国将加入全球最大自贸区

2020-11-13 15:39

RCEP谈判若取得成功,将是东亚经济一体化20年来取得的最重要成果。如果印度最终加入,协议将涵盖约35亿人口,GDP总和将达23万亿美元,占全球总量的1/3,所包括的区域将成为世界最大的自贸区。

历时8年的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》谈判将在11月15日迎来最后闯关时刻,一旦签署,一个覆盖亚太15国的巨无霸经贸圈将应运而生。

11月12日至15日,第23次中国—东盟(10+1)领导人会议、第23次东盟与中日韩(10+3)领导人会议、第15届东亚峰会(EAS)、第四次区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)领导人会议和东盟商务与投资峰会(ABIS)将以视频方式举行。

越南外交部副部长阮国勇9日在新闻发布会上宣布,RCEP谈判已经完成,目前各国正各自推进本国的批准程序。他补充道,15国有望在15日的第四次RCEP领导人会议上签署该协议。作为今年东盟的轮值主席国,越南将主持本次东亚合作领导人系列会议。

泰国外交部东盟司司长Usana Berananda说,如果文件准备完毕,这将是东盟有史以来在线签署的第一个协议,泰国将于15日参加协议的签订。印尼贸易部长阿古斯·苏帕曼托10日也表示,预计将在15日签署RCEP,他说,这一“战略性的”协议将会促进该国对其他签署国的出口。

应越南总理阮春福邀请,国务院总理李克强将出席今年的东亚合作领导人系列会议。中国外交部副部长罗照辉11日在吹风会上表示,中方期待系列会议期间如期签署RCEP,“这将充分展示区域国家支持多边主义和自由贸易、进一步深化经贸联系的积极意愿”。

RCEP由东盟10国于2012年发起,邀请中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰、印度6个对话伙伴国共同参加,旨在通过削减关税及非关税壁垒,建立统一市场的自由贸易协定。去年11月,由于在关税、与其他国家的贸易逆差和非关税壁垒方面存在分歧,印度决定退出谈判,但剩下的15国表示将努力在2020年签署协定。

中国商务部部长助理李成钢在11日的吹风会上指出,在东盟主导下,RCEP各方积极推进各领域谈判。截至目前,所有领域的谈判已经全面完成,所有文本的法律审核工作也已经完成。各方正在积极协商,争取在本次领导人会议期间签署协定,这将为促进全球自由贸易和多边贸易体制发展发挥积极作用。

商务部副部长钱克明12日在“中国发展高层论坛”上也表示,中国将坚定地实施自贸区战略,与有意愿的国家共建高标准自贸区,推动年内签署RCEP。

RCEP谈判若取得成功,将是东亚经济一体化20年来取得的最重要成果。如果印度最终加入,协议将涵盖约35亿人口,GDP总和将达23万亿美元,占全球总量的1/3,所包括的区域将成为世界最大的自贸区。据悉,其余15国将在协定中做出特殊安排,以便让印度可以顺利重返协定。

RCEP将给亚太经济注入动力

今年以来,中国与东盟经贸合作逆势上扬。数据显示,今年1至9月,中国与东盟贸易保持增长,达4818.1亿美元,同比增长了5%,东盟历史性地成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。前9个月,中国前三大贸易伙伴分别为东盟、欧盟、美国,而中国与东盟贸易额比中国与第二大贸易伙伴欧盟多205.9亿美元。

不仅东盟对签署这一协定寄予厚望,日本也展现出非常积极的态度。一旦达成,这将是日本首次与中韩两国签署贸易协定,这两国去年分别是日本进出口的第一和第三大对象国。有消息人士称,根据协议草案,日本将对六种敏感农产品(大米、小麦、牛肉和猪肉、乳制品和食糖)保持关税,以保护国内农民免受廉价进口农产品的冲击。

中国传媒大学港澳台与世界事务研究中心特聘研究员王鹏向21世纪经济报道记者指出,RCEP的签订对于进一步深化中日合作也会有一定推动作用。“加强与中日经济联系,对中日两国、对亚太地区都有好处。当然,但这也存在一定困难,如中日间的政治互信、来自第三方的阻力等。”

中国现代国际关系研究院全球化研究中心主任、日本所研究员刘军红向21世纪经济报道记者指出,日本对RCEP有两大考虑:除了通过协定加强同亚太地区的经济合作,还可以通过参加有中国在内的协定向美国施加一定压力,让美国新一届政府重视同日本的经贸合作。

对于整个亚太地区来说,RCEP都意味着巨大的商机。-新华社

“日本当前对美国的诉求有两个:一是希望晚一点再启动第二轮日美贸易谈判,以及让美国在谈判中向日本让利;二是希望美国能够重返TPP(跨太平洋伙伴关系协定)。”刘军红说,“过去,日本在同美国谈TPP的时候就总在以RCEP为筹码,因为RCEP这个巨大的贸易协定是没有美国的,如果美国不参与区域贸易安排,就可能在未来的规则制定上丧失话语权。”

对于整个亚太地区来说,RCEP都意味着巨大的商机。商务部研究院区域经济合作研究中心主任张建平向21世纪经济报道记者指出,RCEP将覆盖全球最有增长潜力的两个大市场,一个是14亿人口的中国市场,另一个是6亿多人口的东盟市场。同时,这15个经济体,作为亚太地区经济增长的重要引擎,也是全球增长的重要动力源。

张建平指出,协定一旦开始实施,由于较大幅度地取消了关税壁垒和非关税壁垒以及投资壁垒,会使区域内部的相互贸易需求快速增长,这就是贸易创造效应。同时,也会部分将同域外伙伴的贸易转移为域内贸易,这就是贸易的转移效应。在投资方面,协定也会带来新增的投资创造效应。因此,RCEP将拉动整个地区的GDP增长,创造更多的就业,让各国国民的福祉得到显著提高。

“每一次的金融危机或经济危机都会有力地推进区域经济一体化的进程,因为所有的经济伙伴都需要抱团取暖,共同应对外部压力。目前,全球都在面临着新冠疫情大流行的挑战,仍然没有走出全球经济衰退。在这样的背景下,加强区域内合作是一个客观需求。”张建平说,“我们需要进一步挖掘RCEP覆盖下的大市场内部的潜力,特别是,这里是目前全球需求增长最快、发展动力最强的一个区域。”

RCEP签署后,中国会否加入CPTPP?

2014年中国主办亚太经合组织领导人非正式会议期间的声明指出,TPP和RCEP都是亚太地区推动亚太自贸区建设的路径选项。对于中国是否会加入CPTPP(“全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”,参与TPP谈判的其他11国对原协定作出修改,形成CPTPP),今年5月,李克强在两会记者会上再次重申,中国对加入CPTPP持积极开放的态度。

“展望未来,亚太自贸区仍是亚太地区经济一体化方向。2014年的北京APEC会议明确提出,要加快亚太自由贸易区建设,积极推进区域经济一体化。RCEP的签署意味着我们向实现这个亚太梦更近了一步。”张建平说道。

在王鹏看来,推进RCEP建设是中国的重大既定政策。若拜登上台,不排除美国会重返TPP,因此中国加快推进RCEP谈判或许也有提前应对的考量;但RCEP对中国的战略意义并不因美国新一届政府和TPP而改变。中国始终致力于与周边邻国、RCEP相关方推动区域经济一体化。

关于中国是否应该加入CPTPP,多年来一直有很多争论。王鹏认为,这是一个很复杂的问题。一方面,如果美国重启TPP,那么今天的这个协定(CPTPP)与当年的TPP有多少异同尚待观察。另一方面,当年TPP就是美国为了抗衡中国的产物,未来如果美国新一届政府重启TPP,是否接纳中国仍是未知数。

另外,王鹏补充道,加入CPTPP,对中国不同产业的影响不一,因此还存在中国国内不同产业间博弈的问题。“当然,四年来,中国在各领域也取得了长足的发展,国力大为增强。任何国家想‘新瓶装旧酒’,靠再来一个TPP去遏制中国,都将面临更大的困境。”

中国人民大学欧盟“让-莫内”讲席教授、欧盟研究中心主任王义桅向21世纪经济报道记者指出,正如很多人所说,21世纪是太平洋的世纪,RCEP是在“10+6”推动下的一个“经济版”的“印太合作路线图”(印度退出,RCEP的印度洋色彩暂褪),是一个能够推动区域更高质量发展的平台,而且中国将在这个平台上起到重要作用。

王义桅指出,若拜登上台,很可能在上任半年到一年后重返TPP。一旦美国重返TPP,可能会在劳工权益保护、隐私权保护等方面大做文章,甚至把一些政治问题放到经贸谈判中,以挑战中国的竞争优势。

王义桅认为,中国已经准备好参与加入CPTPP的谈判,这与中国参与高质量的贸易和投资谈判的方向一致。“与CPTPP相比,RCEP更具包容性。”

澳大利亚驻华大使傅关汉12日在北京的一场论坛上透露:“目前,有多个经济体表示出加入CPTPP的兴趣,欢迎有更多国家加入。”他表示,作为RCEP和CPTPP的成员,澳大利亚期待新成员可以维持协议现有的高标准,包括共同解决一些农业市场准入的问题。

If the RCEP negotiations are successful, they will be the most important outcome of east Asian economic integration in the past 20 years. If India does eventually join, the deal will cover about 3.5 billion people with a combined GDP of $23 trillion, a third of the global total, and include the world's largest free trade area.

Eight years of negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) will come to a head on November 15th, ushering in the creation of a giant trade bloc spanning 15 Asia-Pacific countries.

On November 12 solstice 15, the 23rd china-asean (10+1) leaders' meeting, the 23rd asean plus three (10+3) leaders' meeting, the 15th east Asia summit (EAS), the 4th regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP) leaders' meeting and the asean business and investment summit (ABIS) will be held in video format.

Vietnamese Deputy Foreign Minister Nguyen Guk Dung announced at a press conference on September 9 that RCEP negotiations have been completed and that all countries are now pushing forward their own ratification procedures. He added that 15 countries are expected to sign the agreement at the fourth RCEP leaders' meeting on The 15th. As the rotating chair of ASEAN this year, Vietnam will host the Leaders' meetings on East Asia cooperation.

Usana Berananda, director general of the Asean Department at the Thai Foreign Ministry, said that if the document is ready, it will be the first agreement ever signed online by ASEAN, and Thailand will participate in the signing of the agreement on The 15th. Indonesia's trade minister Agus Supamantto also said On Monday that RCEP is expected to be signed on The 15th, saying the "strategic" agreement will boost the country's exports to other signatories.

At the invitation of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council will attend this year's Leaders' meetings on East Asia cooperation. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Luo Zhaohui said at a briefing on November 11 that China expects the RCEP to be signed as scheduled during the meetings, which "will fully demonstrate the positive will of regional countries to support multilateralism and free trade and further deepen economic and trade ties."


The RCEP was launched by the 10 ASEAN countries in 2012 and invited six dialogue partners -- China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India -- to participate in a free trade agreement aimed at establishing a single market by reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers. India pulled out of the talks in November because of disagreements over tariffs, trade deficits with other countries and non-tariff barriers, but the remaining 15 countries have said they will try to sign the agreement by 2020.

Li Chenggang, Assistant Minister of Commerce of China, pointed out at a briefing on November 11 that under the leadership of ASEAN, all parties in THE RCEP are actively advancing negotiations in various fields. So far, negotiations in all areas have been fully completed and the legal review of all texts has been completed. All parties are actively negotiating for an agreement to be signed during this leaders' meeting, which will play a positive role in promoting global free trade and the development of the multilateral trading system.

Vice Minister of Commerce Qian Keming also said at the China Development Forum on December 12 that China will firmly implement the fta strategy, build high-standard FTA with willing countries and push for the signing of RCEP within this year.

If the RCEP negotiations are successful, they will be the most important outcome of east Asian economic integration in the past 20 years. If India does eventually join, the deal will cover about 3.5 billion people with a combined GDP of $23 trillion, a third of the global total, and include the world's largest free trade area. It is understood that the remaining 15 countries will make special arrangements in the agreement so that India can smoothly return to the agreement.

The RCEP will give impetus to the Asia-Pacific economy

Since the beginning of this year, economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has bucked the trend. Statistics show that from January to September this year, Trade between China and ASEAN kept growing, reaching 481.81 billion US dollars, up 5% year-on-year, making ASEAN China's largest trading partner historically. In the first nine months, China's top three trading partners were ASEAN, the European Union and the United States, and the trade volume between China and ASEAN was 20.59 billion US dollars more than that between China and the European Union, China's second largest trading partner.

Not only asean has high hopes for the signing of this agreement, but Also Japan has shown a very positive attitude. If it does, it will be Japan's first trade agreement with China and South Korea, which last year were Japan's top and third largest importers and exporters respectively. According to the draft agreement, Japan will maintain tariffs on six sensitive agricultural products (rice, wheat, beef and pork, dairy products and sugar) to protect domestic farmers from cheap imports, sources said.

Wang Peng, distinguished research fellow of the Center for Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and World Affairs at the Communication University of China, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald that the RCEP signing will also play a role in further deepening the cooperation between China and Japan. "Strengthening economic ties with Japan is good for both countries and for the Asia-Pacific region. Of course, there are some difficulties, such as political mutual trust between China and Japan and resistance from a third party."

, of the China institute of contemporary international relations director of the center for the study of globalization, Japanese researchers jun-hong liu reporter pointed out into the 21st century economy, Japan for RCEP has two big consideration: in addition to agreement to strengthen economic cooperation with the asia-pacific region, you can go for agreements with China, a certain pressure to the United States, for the United States to a new government attaches great importance to the economic and trade cooperation with Japan.


For the entire Asia-Pacific region, the RCEP represents a huge business opportunity. - the Xinhua News Agency

"There are two things Japan wants from the US right now: first, it wants to postpone the second round of trade talks with The US and get the US to cede its interests to Japan in the talks; "The other is that we want the United States to return to the TPP." "In the past, Japan always used the RCEP as a bargaining chip when negotiating the TPP with the United States, because the RCEP is a huge trade agreement without the United States," Liu said. "If the United States does not participate in the regional trade arrangement, it may lose its voice in the future rule-making."

For the entire Asia-Pacific region, the RCEP represents a huge business opportunity. Zhang Jianping, director of the Research Center for Regional Economic Cooperation under the Ministry of Commerce, told 21st Century Business Herald that RCEP will cover the world's two largest markets with the greatest growth potential, China's 1.4 billion people and ASEAN's 600 million-plus people. At the same time, these 15 economies, as important engines of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region, are also important sources of global growth.

Zhang Jianping pointed out that once the agreement is implemented, the demand for mutual trade within the region will grow rapidly due to the relatively large removal of tariff and non-tariff barriers and investment barriers, which is the trade creation effect. At the same time, trade with non-regional partners will be partially diverted to intra-regional trade, which is the transfer effect of trade. On the investment side, the agreement will also bring about additional investment creation. Therefore, the RCEP will boost the GDP growth of the whole region, create more jobs and significantly improve the well-being of all countries.

"Every financial crisis or economic crisis gives a powerful boost to regional economic integration because all economic partners need to stay together to cope with external pressures. At present, the world is facing the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic and still not out of the global economic recession. In this context, strengthening intra-regional cooperation is an objective need." "We need to further tap the potential within the large markets covered by RCEP, especially as this is the region with the fastest growth in global demand and the strongest development momentum," Zhang said.

Will China join the CPTPP after the RCEP signing?

A statement on the sidelines of the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting hosted by China in 2014 pointed out that both TPP and RCEP are options for the asia-pacific region to promote the building of the FREE Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific. As for whether China will join the CPTPP (" Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement ", in which the other 11 countries involved in the TPP negotiations have revised the original agreement to form the CPTPP), Li reiterated at the press conference of the two sessions in May this year that China is positive and open to joining the CPTPP.

"Going forward, the FTAAP remains the direction of economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The APEC Meeting in Beijing in 2014 made it clear that the free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) should be accelerated and regional economic integration should be actively promoted. "The signing of the RCEP brings us one step closer to realizing this Asia-Pacific dream." Zhang jianping said.

In Wang Peng's view, advancing RCEP construction is a major and established policy of China. If Biden takes office, the United States will not rule out returning to TPP. Therefore, China may also have some considerations to advance RCEP negotiations. But the strategic significance of RCEP to China will not change with the new US administration and the TPP. China is committed to promoting regional economic integration with its neighbors and relevant parties on the RCEP.

There has been much debate over the years about whether China should join the CPTPP. Wang Peng thinks, this is a very complex problem. On the one hand, it remains to be seen how similar today's AGREEMENT (CPTPP) would be to its predecessor if the US were to reopen it. On the other hand, the TPP was a product of the United States in order to counter China. If the new ADMINISTRATION of the United States restarts the TPP in the future, whether it will accept China is still unknown.

In addition, Wang peng added that joining CPTPP has different impacts on different industries in China, so there is still a problem of game between different industries in China. "Of course, over the past four years, China has also made great strides in various fields and its national strength has greatly enhanced. Any country trying to contain China with another TPP will face greater difficulties."

Renmin university of China "- eu monet" professor professors, eu research center director. "mast to 21st century business herald reporter pointed out that as many people say, in the 21st century is the century of the Pacific, RCEP is under the" 10 + 6 "to promote a" economic edition "road map" to "printing too cooperation (India, RCEP Indian Ocean color temporarily fade), is a platform to promote the development of regional higher quality, and China will play an important role on the platform.

Mr. Wang noted that If Mr. Biden takes office, he would likely return to the TPP within six months to a year of taking office. Once the US returns to TPP, it may make a big deal about labor rights protection and privacy protection, and even put some political issues into economic and trade negotiations to challenge China's competitive advantage.

Wang yiwei believes that China is ready to participate in the CPTPP negotiations, which is in line with China's participation in high-quality trade and investment negotiations. "Compared with CPTPP, RCEP is more inclusive."

"At present, a number of economies have expressed interest in joining CPTPP, and more countries are welcome to join," Australian Ambassador to China Fu Guanghan told a forum in Beijing on Monday. As a member of both RCEP and CPTPP, Australia expects the new members to maintain the high standards of the agreement, including jointly addressing some agricultural market access issues, he said.

来自: 21世纪经济报道