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印度央行报告:印度历史上第一次陷入技术衰退

2020-11-13 16:05

 

孟买,11月12日(新华社)——根据印度中央银行的一份报告,印度在2020-21财年上半年(2021年4月至2021年3月)进入了该国历史上首次技术性衰退。


根据周三晚些时候由印度储备银行(RBI)副行长迈克尔·帕特拉(Michael Patra)领导的一个小组发布的报告,亚洲第三大经济体可能已经连续第二个季度(7 - 9月)收缩,将该国推入前所未有的衰退。


根据该报告,印度国内生产总值(gdp)在4 - 6月下滑约23.9%后,将在7 - 9月萎缩8.6%,不过官方统计数据将于本月晚些时候11月27日公布。


在谈到生活在充满挑战的时代时,报告称,“潜伏在转角处的第三大风险是家庭和企业的压力加剧,这种压力被推迟了,但没有得到缓解,并可能蔓延到金融部门。”


提醒有关的下行风险和通胀,尤其是通过COVID-19后,该报告说,“最重要的(风险)是无情的通货膨胀的压力,没有减弱的迹象,尽管供应管理等措施的实施股票限制洋葱交易员,进口的土豆和洋葱(没有熏蒸)和脉冲临时降低进口关税。”


报告称,第二波新冠肺炎对全球经济的影响可能会影响最近出口的复苏,因为正如大宗商品价格所预示的那样,外部需求面临崩溃的威胁。


然而,令人乐观的是,印度储备银行的报告称,印度经济将突破过去6个月的收缩,并在2020-21年第四季度恢复正增长。报告称,2020年10月的数据点亮了前景,激发了消费者和企业的信心。

 

MUMBAI, Nov. 12 (Xinhua) -- India has entered into a technical recession in the first half of 2020-21 fiscal year (April 2020-March 2021) for the first time in its history, according to a report by the country's central bank.

According to the report released late Wednesday by a team led by Michael Patra, a deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Asia's third-largest economy has probably shrunk for the second straight quarter (July-September) pushing the country into an unprecedented recession.

As per the report, India's gross domestic product is set to contract by 8.6 percent in July-September after having slumped by around 23.9 percent in April-June though the official statistics will be released later this month on Nov. 27.

Stating about living in challenging times, the report said, "Lurking around the corner is the third major risk -- stress intensifying among households and corporations that has been delayed but not mitigated, and could spill over into the financial sector."

Cautioning about downside risks and inflation, in particular, following by COVID-19, the report said, "The foremost (risk) is the unrelenting pressure of inflation, with no signs of waning in spite of supply management measures such as the imposition of stock limits on onion traders, imports of potatoes and onions (without fumigation) and a temporary reduction in import duties on pulses."

The second wave of COVID-19 to the global economy could impact the recent recovery in exports as external demand threatens to collapse as commodity prices indicate, the report said.

However, on an optimistic note, the RBI report said that the Indian economy will break out of contraction of the six months gone by and return to positive growth in the October-December quarter of 2020-21. Incoming data for the month of October 2020 have brightened prospects and stirred up consumer and business confidence, it said.

 

来自: xinhua