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瑞银预测:到2021年底,全球产出和企业利润将恢复到疫情前的水平

2020-11-18 21:14

 

纽约,11月17日(新华社)——周二,瑞士银行巨头瑞银公布的年度展望称,如果明年上半年COVID疫苗大规模推出,全球产出和企业收益将在2021年底恢复到大流行前的水平。


报告称,到2021年第二季度,COVID疫苗的广泛供应将有助于欧洲和美国走上持续复苏的道路,而中国的经济活动已经基本正常化。


瑞银全球财富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投资官马克•海菲尔(Mark Haefele)在报告发布之际表示,除了疫苗问题,一项自由贸易协定刚刚签署,在中国的带领下,亚洲经济确实正在强劲复苏。


“所以,这是一个增长引擎。然后,财政和货币刺激将持续到明年,这将在我们进入复苏时提供支持。”


该报告称,预计2021年全球企业盈利将比2019年增长5.2%。


报告称,发达国家的企业盈利将大致赶上2019年的水平,而新兴市场企业2021年的盈利将比2019年增长约15%,主要得益于亚洲强劲的盈利增长。


报告指出,到2020年,整个发达市场和不包括中国的新兴市场将萎缩5% - 6%,这将是70多年来全球经济最糟糕的情况。


特别是,中国将是唯一一个在2020年实现经济增长的大型经济体。

 

NEW YORK, Nov. 17 (Xinhua) -- Global output and corporate earnings will go back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021 assuming wide-scale rollout of COVID vaccines in the first half of next year, said a yearly outlook unveiled by Swiss banking giant UBS on Tuesday.

The wide availability of COVID vaccines by the second quarter of 2021 should help put Europe and the United States on the path to a sustained recovery while Chinese economic activity has already largely normalized, the report said.

Beyond vaccine issues, a free trade agreement was just signed, and the economy in Asia is really coming back strong led by China, said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management on the occasion of issuing the report.

"So, that's a growth engine. Then, the fiscal and monetary stimulus is going to continue into next year and that's gonna be providing support as we enter into that recovery," said Haefele.

Global corporate earnings are expected to become 5.2 percent higher in 2021 in comparison with the earnings in 2019, according to the report.

Corporate earnings in developed countries would roughly match 2019 levels and emerging market companies will earn around 15 percent more in 2021 than in 2019 powered by robust earnings growth in Asia, said the report.

Developed markets as a whole and emerging markets excluding China would contract 5 percent to 6 percent in 2020, the worst for the global economy in over 70 years, noted the report.

In particular, China will be the only large economy to see economic expansion in 2020, according to the report.

 

来自: xinhua