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能源网预测区块链2021年三大主题

2020-12-30 16:53

 

我们预计2021年将有三大主题:1)用户和资产的自主身份,2)开源区块链技术的企业应用,以及3)全经济范围的气候行动


当我们一起回顾一个非常出人意料的2020年时,区块链在其发源地——金融市场——产生最大影响似乎再合适不过了。金融世界正在迅速转变,再也不能忽视数字加密货币。证据是压倒性的。


许多国家——从亚洲的中国和新加坡,到欧洲的瑞典和法国,再到中东的沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——都在探索与各自法定货币等同的中央银行数字货币(CBDC)。像Kraken这样的加密交易所正在采取前所未有的步骤获得银行牌照。去中心化交易所正在取代集中化现有交易所(例如,今年8月,Uniswap在交易量上超过了Coinbase Pro)。在12月中旬,比特币达到了历史新高,首次达到了23000美元,这主要是受大型企业利益的驱动。


与此同时,存在多年的“免费数据”模式即将结束,这不仅仅是因为欧盟的GDPR和加州的CCPA等立法。随着科技巨头们发现自己成了诉讼的目标,消费者们开始对失去对自己数据的控制进行反击。今年4月,美国一家联邦上诉法院重新提起诉讼,指控Facebook非法跟踪用户的互联网活动,侵犯了用户的隐私权。今年9月,加拿大各省联合发起集体诉讼,指控互联网巨头谷歌在未经许可的情况下收集数据。同月,爱尔兰数据保护委员会(Irish Data Protection Commission)发布了一项初步决定,暂停Facebook的跨大西洋数据传输。


因此,由用户控制的去中心化标识符驱动的自我主权身份在各个行业都在上升,从能源网络运营的能源部门到教育和医疗保健。


在这种背景下,区块链——更广泛地说,去中心化数字技术——作为一种新的、强大的工具,补充企业传统的IT软件,正受到青睐。特别是,我看到了五种新趋势:


厂商锁定不再存在。公司不想再受制于拥有特定软件供应商和高潜在转换成本的专有系统。它对单个供应商产生了过多的依赖,对客户数据产生了负债,并减缓了创新的步伐。

“开源”是新的口号。最近的分析发现,开源代码基本上存在于市场上的每一个应用程序中,有时甚至占了一半以上的代码库,甚至在专有应用程序中也是如此。基于开源软件的开放公共网络有未来。

联盟正在形成以满足客户需求。从供应链软件到银行业,再到我们自己的能源网络生态系统,其中包括许多世界上最具影响力的能源公司和电网运营商,行业联盟正在共同推进解决方案——不是在私人环境中,而是在一个包括监管机构、客户和供应商在内的公开环境中。

区块链找到了自己的企业利基:信任。“信任”(和“不可信”)这个词在区块链圈子里被大量使用,但这确实是企业一直在寻找的杀手级应用程序或黄金用例。例如,在能源领域,电网运营商需要了解并信任哪些资产与电网相连,有能力提供服务,并参与能源市场。分散的基于区块链的基础设施提供的解决方案允许这些资产的高效和安全的登机。

绿色是新的黑色。企业的可持续性——从减排目标到100%可再生能源目标——是世界领先企业的必备条件。随着共识机制变得越来越环保,这种“绿色”的要求已经渗透到区块链技术中。它不再是创造利润;这一切都是关于业务及其环境的可持续增长。


企业的可持续性——特别是绿色能源投资和其他形式的气候行动——尤其及时。本月早些时候,《巴黎协定》签署五周年,这是应对气候危机的具有里程碑意义的国际合作。随着2020年的到来,它将继续打破历史记录,成为最热的一年。

 

然而,我仍然对全球向低碳经济转型抱有希望……以及企业区块链在促成和加速这一转型的重要部分方面所扮演的角色。彭博新能源财经(Bloomberg New Energy Finance)刚刚发布了2020年版的《新能源展望》(New Energy Outlook),它证实了我们在Energy Web过去三年来的观点:大规模投资正涌入分布式、以客户为中心的低碳技术领域。根据BNEF的深度脱碳气候设想,到2050年,在清洁电力、绿色氢及相关技术方面需要78万亿至130万亿美元的新投资。客户投资占总投资的比例预计将呈指数增长,这就是为什么我们在2021年在能源网建立的企业区块链会如此重要的原因。


客户增加数亿,最终数十亿分布式能源资产电网(例如,太阳能电池板、电池、智能调温器、电动汽车,热泵),电网运营商需要知道它们是什么,他们在哪里,谁拥有它们,能源服务他们提供什么,以及他们参与电力市场。连接必须是安全的。全球能源部门正处于从传统的集中式基础设施向高度分散的数字化网络的大规模转型之中。


今年的监管变化——从美国联邦能源委员会(FERC)的2222号法令(开放批发电力市场到分布式资产)到欧盟委员会的绿色新政和循环经济行动计划(呼吁“电池护照”)——只会进一步加速转型。这就是为什么我预计2021年能源部门将成为企业区块链应用的突破范例,因为世界电网运营商将利用它的许多好处,包括用户和资产的主权身份和分布式能源未来的信任分散。

 

Three big themes we can expect for 2021: 1) Self-sovereign identity for users and assets, 2) Enterprise adoption of open-source blockchain tech, and 3) Economywide climate action

As we collectively look back on a very unexpected 2020, it seems only fitting that blockchain had the biggest impact in the sector where it started: in financial markets. The financial world is rapidly transforming and can no longer ignore digital cryptocurrencies. The evidence is simply overwhelming.

Numerous countries—from China and Singapore in Asia to Sweden and France in Europe to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East—are all exploring centralized bank digital currency (CBDC) equivalents of their respective fiat currencies. Crypto exchanges like Kraken are taking the unprecedented step of getting bank licenses. Decentralized exchanges are overtaking centralized incumbents (in August, for example, Uniswap surpassed Coinbase Pro in trading volume). And in mid-December Bitcoin reached an all-time high, for the first time crested US$23,000, mainly driven this time by the interest of large enterprises.

Meanwhile, the ‘data for free’ model that has existed for years is coming to an end, and not just because of legislation such as the EU’s GDPR and California’s CCPA. Consumers are fighting back against losing control of their own data as tech giants find themselves the target of lawsuits. In April, a U.S. federal appeals court revived litigation that accused Facebook of violating users’ privacy rights by illegally tracking their Internet activity. In September, a coalition of Canadian provinces sued Google in a proposed class action lawsuit alleging the Internet giant was collecting data without consent. That same month the Irish Data Protection Commission issued a preliminary decision to halt Facebook’s trans-Atlantic data transfers.

As a consequence, self-sovereign identities powered by user-controlled decentralized identifiers are on the rise across various industries, from the energy sector in which Energy Web operates to education to healthcare.

Against this backdrop, blockchain—and decentralized digital technologies more generally—are gaining favor as a new, powerful tool to complement enterprises’ traditional IT software. In particular, I see five emerging trends:

  1. Vendor lock-in is out. Companies no longer want to be beholden to proprietary systems with specific software vendors and high potential switching costs. It creates too many dependencies on a single vendor, creates liabilities on customer data, and slows down the pace of innovation.
  2. Open-source’ is the new mantraRecent analyses have found that open-source code is present in essentially every application on the market, sometimes accounting for more than half the codebase, even in proprietary apps. Open, public networks based on open-source software have the future.
  3. Consortia are forming to address customer needs. From supply chain software to banking to our own Energy Web ecosystem comprising many of the world’s most-influential energy companies and grid operators, industry consortia are advancing solutions together—not in a private setting but in an open public setting that involves the regulators, customers, and suppliers. 
  4. Blockchain has found its enterprise niche: trust. The word ‘trust’ (and ‘trustless’) is used a lot in blockchain circles, but this really is the killer app or golden use case enterprises have been looking for. For example, in the energy sector, grid operators need to know and trust what assets are connected to their power grids, capable of providing services, and participating in energy markets. The solution offered by decentralized blockchain-based infrastructures allows for efficient and secure onboarding of those assets.
  5. Green is the new black. Enterprise sustainability—from emissions-reduction targets to 100% renewable energy goals—are de rigueur for the world’s leading companies. That ‘green’ mandate has trickled down into blockchain tech, as consensus mechanisms become increasingly environmentally friendly. It is no longer about generating profits; it is all about sustainable growth of the business and its environment.

Enterprise sustainability—especially green energy investment and other forms of climate action—is particularly timely. Just earlier this month saw the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreement, landmark international cooperation to tackle the climate crisis. As we close the books on 2020, it remains on track to break new ground as the hottest year on record.

Yet I remain hopeful for the global transition to a low-carbon economy… and enterprise blockchain’s role in enabling and accelerating important parts of that transition. The 2020 edition of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s New Energy Outlook just released, and it affirms what we’ve believed at Energy Web for the past three years: massive investment is flooding into distributed, customer-centric, low-carbon technologies. BNEF’s deep decarbonization Climate Scenario calls for $78 trillion to $130 trillion of new investment through 2050 in clean electricity, green hydrogen, and associated technologies. Customer investment as a portion of that total is expected to grow exponentially, which is why enterprise blockchain like what we’ve built at Energy Web will be so important in 2021.

As customers add hundreds of millions and eventually billions of distributed energy assets to power grids (e.g., solar panels, batteries, smart thermostats, electric vehicles, heat pumps), grid operators will need to know what they are, where they are, who owns them, what energy services they’re capable of providing, and what electricity markets they’re participating in. And the connections need to be secure. The global energy sector is in the midst of a mass-scale transformation from legacy centralized infrastructure to highly decentralized, digitized networks.

Regulatory changes this year—from FERC Order 2222 in the United States (opening wholesale electricity markets to distributed assets) to the European Commission’s Green New Deal and Circular Economy Action Plan (calling for ‘Battery Passports’)—are only accelerating the transition further. That’s why I expect 2021 will see the energy sector become a breakout example of enterprise blockchain adoption, as the world’s grid operators tap into its many benefits, including self-sovereign identity for users and assets and decentralization of trust in a distributed energy future.

 

原作者: Walter Kok 来自: Ledger Insights