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美股亲历者:买入GME暴赚1000万 一觉醒来没平仓倒欠券商6000万

2021-1-30 14:28

最近的美股市场,散户们通过使用期权和抱团,"热血式炒股"威震华尔街,他们将一只行将退市的垃圾股GME(游戏驿站)从3美元一路拉到超过400美元,吊打空头一时风光无两。痛打对冲基金的好戏让吃瓜群众看得目瞪口呆,这场好戏引得美国白宫监察、多家投资机构发出警告。

28日美股交易时段,GME股价一度涨至483美元的历史新高,随后经历17次熔断,最终收跌超过40%。热门互联网券商们一度宣布限制相关“妖股”的交易,并提高保证金要求。这时,开不了股票仓位的美国散户继续疯狂撒钱,更将“炮火”对准现货白银......

当地时间周五,游戏驿站在多家券商“有限”恢复散户买入交易后维持涨势,截至收盘涨近70%,报327.5美元/股。

后续,华尔街机构的大佬们会如何反击? 大戏仍将精彩上演。证券时报记者采访了几位亲身经历此次散户威震华尔街事件的美股投资者,试图从他们的口中还原此次足以载入史册的事件。

留美精英基金经理:“我不认为散户最终会取得胜利”

谁会取得所谓的“胜利”?

对于这个问题,或许各方都有自己的答案,但事件背后的“意义”引发深思。

在美国散户抱团大战机构正酣之时,散户集中地WallStreetsBets(WSB)论坛的一名用户发布一封公开信,写给被迫平仓游戏驿站空头头寸的对冲基金Melvin Capital、CNBC以及所有WSB论坛用户。

据海外媒体报道,信中这名散户斥责以Melvin Capital为代表的华尔街机构,称他们在2008年的金融危机中给数以百万的普通民众制造了莫大的苦难,却没有受到任何惩罚,反而得到救助,如今又公然非法做空游戏驿站这样的股票,没有从危机中吸取丝毫教训。该散户还指责CNBC这样的海外主流媒体收受大企业的赞助,为他们发声,将散户的热炒游戏驿站等个股妖魔化,称这类媒体吹捧机构是短视的牟利行为。现在,散户就是在把握一生难得一次的机会惩罚这些机构。

这必将引起另一场深刻的“大讨论”,但美国散户们或许都会抱着必胜的信念,但每个“散户”的想法不尽相同。

苏奇两年前从美国哥伦比亚大学毕业回国,现在任职深圳某大型投资机构。他对记者表示,他也使用了个人资金参与了此次散户与机构的“大事件”,即使他并不认为散户最终会取得胜利。

少一些情绪化,多一些分析。苏奇对游戏驿站公司做过分析,认为公司本身的经营属于正常水平,这类公司在美股市场上很常见,此前公司股价长期在10美元左右徘徊,但在股价涨到20美元后,就有投资机构开始做空公司股票,但也并没有脱离正常的投资范畴。

他认为,随着WallStreetsBets的意见领袖不断宣扬,以及更多个人投资者的加入,投资者的情绪开始高涨。随着社交媒体的发酵,又有更多投资者开始加入战团,公司股价目前已经被投资者情绪主导。

不过,苏奇也认为,此次散户和机构之战,更深层次的原因是美国前总统特朗普在其任内对规则的挑战和对传统的蔑视,并且开始在资本市场产生影响。“个人投资者开始厌倦了由大型投资机构决定一家公司的价值和命运。在某个股票对投资机构进行阻击,即使不能完全改变市场的生态,仍能让这部分投资者获得满足感。”

苏奇还认为,美国大型科技股股价的大幅上涨,以及国内股市机构抱团的现象,都是由机构主导。不过,这些公司的价格并不能用传统估值模型来解释,更多的是机构们利用资金优势在决定公司的股价。因此,此次散户大战机构是个人投资者“利用魔法打败魔法”。不仅华尔街的投资机构,国内的投资机构也应该反省,当前仅仅依靠资金的优势来决定公司的价值是否能够长期持续下去。

“从香港到上海,我在隔离酒店内爆炒了一把GME”

在上海的隔离酒店中,一家香港投资公司的总经理俞于也参与了GME的交易,不过他并不是用机构的资金,而是纯个人参与。俞于告诉证券时报记者,在香港虽然有很多对冲基金,但行业里面并没有那么疯狂。“这种机构很难参与,除非一早就买进去的,不然GME的估值根本过不了专业机构的风控,大资金买进去怕风头过了流动性都不够减仓。”

俞于之所以会关注到GME,是因为自己平时就有做美股投资,所以在前天通过盈透证券350美元卖出,昨天155美元实现平仓的,持仓一天实现了60%的收益。当时,他预判要支持GME股票持续上涨,需要一直有全球范围内的新闻曝光才能吸引到更多的资金进来,但这显然在长期来看不可持续的,长期股票价值还是要回归正常,所以就决定花很小一点仓位做空。

“本来我想持有一周以上,我预计要到周五才开始跌,周五有大量GME的期权到期,很多对冲基金就不需要再买入回补自己的空头仓位了。但28日晚跌得挺厉害,而后面的情况暂时无法预计,算了一下利润的情况下就平掉了。”他告诉记者。

摩根大通等投行最新指出,GME现象并非孤例,这些散户投资者们可能进一步复制这一模式,让更多类似的股票出现大幅波动。俞于也认为,类似的现象肯定还会发生,在美国散户抱团快发展成为一项运动。“只要美国继续放水,类似的造富运动肯定还会继续发生,比如美股、比特币、甚至名牌包和手表、球鞋等有流量的资产其实过去一年的价格都涨了不少,加上互联网平台的传播,比如这次散户大本营的Discord和reddit都是美国年轻人里面很火的网站,更加剧了炒作的价值。

记者发现,参与者史上罕见一刻的,也有中国散户。在一个港美股的打新群里,GME的话题刷屏,甚至有人用美股的模拟盘交易,轮番上演做多做空GME的账户秀,也要“刺激一把”。而其他社群里面,也充斥着买入GME暴赚1000万港元,一觉醒来没平仓,却倒欠券商6000万港元的真人版案例。

交银国际董事总经理、研究部负责人洪灏日前也发微博表示,GME股价暴涨未必是投机的结果,其估值本就过低。暴涨前该公司账上有足够现金买下整个公司的市值,同时做空比例却占了股票数的一半。只要公司出任何盈利惊喜,就注定会出现轧空。摩根士丹利首席执行官James Gorman认为,散户抱团轧空是个“短期现象”,“不会持久。”

美股分析师:美股流动性危险的信号

现在,大戏也仍在继续,散户和机构都没有“服输”。

大家都知道,此次事件中第一个倒下的空头竟然是大名鼎鼎的香橼。

1月19日,香橼在社交账号上表示,GME股票的买家是“这场扑克游戏中的输家”,这只股票的股价很快将回到20美元的水平。Reddit用户们对香橼的评论群起而攻,甚至出现针对香橼创始人Andrew Left家人的攻击。与此同时,散户继续集体推高GME的股价,目的就是打爆香橼等机构的空头头寸。面对散户的攻击,Andrew Left在1月21日发布了一则视频,阐述了自己的五个理由,并称“从未见过人们如此愤怒地交换意见”。最后,由于账号受到太多人攻击,香橼最终认怂出局。周五临开盘前,本周初已经了结掉大部分做空GME头寸的香橼宣布将发布“大事情”,随后香橼创始人Andrew Left发布一段短视频,亲口宣布中止长达二十年的空头生涯。

在美国生活的新移民Kevin谈到这一历史性时刻,坦言比起赚多少钱,他更多地将这次散户抱团的事件称之为带有“行为主义”色彩的美式运动,其背后也反映出美国社会的深层次矛盾。

而随着互联网传播的加强,除了美股市场的GME、AMC,美国散户迅速也转战到新标的,周四直接推升了白银、币圈狗狗币等市场的价格,澳洲也有类似的抱团现象运动出现。

事实上,美国资本市场机构占据绝对主导地位,散户在整个市场的占比30%-40%左右,而此次散户能入市的资金来源和疫情息息相关。由于美国失业率节节攀升,美国中低收入民众收获了不菲的现金补助。2020年4月,美国政府向每位民众发了1200美元补贴,12月,又表示要追加每人2000美元。随着拜登的上台,还颁布了1.9万亿美元的经济援助法案。

“其实对于很多美国居民来说,政府的补贴是一笔意外之财,很多人都拿去投入股市,而这次有号召力的那两个论坛里面的很多都是年轻人,他们在2008年金融危机发生的时候年纪还很小,可能也就是中学生,也会因此经历一些家庭的变故,比如失去房产,家庭负债父母失业等等,”他说,“而现在这拨年轻人都长大了,二三十岁开始第一次进入股市,他们想要通过这种表达方式来对抗华尔街,在意见领袖的号召下,用抱团的行为向金融市场一些不公平的事情表达不满。”

无论谁是谁非,从美股分析师角度来看,此次散户与机构的大战或许会给美股市场带来更深层次的影响。

美股分析师TOM告诉记者,由于散户们买入巨量的看涨期权,被做空股票的价格大涨,做空股票的对冲基金在撑不到市场回归理性前被迫缴械投降,关闭空头头寸。与此同时,对冲基金不得不开始卖出其他股票持仓,或者期货对冲头寸,并减少整体敞口。市场数据显示,对冲基金正在以六年多来最快的速度削减股票敞口。根据高盛汇总的数据,基金经理们在此前的四天内从市场撤出的资金总额,达到2014年10月以来的最高水平。此外,危机之下大量机构资金疯狂买入美债避险。

在他看来,这一切都是美股流动性危险的信号。

其实,散户反杀机构的戏码,在美股市场上也不是第一次发生。还记得特斯拉吗?众所周知,马斯克有多么痛恨空头,他自己几次差点栽在空头手上。早在2017年,华尔街多家巨头做空特斯拉,马斯克濒临破产边缘,现在的特斯拉股价已经“高高在上”。有市场人士认为,特斯拉是美国散户信仰的大本营,也是空头2020年损失最惨重的个股之一。

无论是A股还是美股的小散户,万万没想到,本以为资本市场的投资者结构变化是一条单行道,却在魔幻的2021见证了历史。

(注:文中受访者均为化名)

In recent days, retail investors have taken Wall Street by storm with the use of options and group trading, pulling a defunct junk stock from $3 to more than $400 and betting against short positions. The hedge-fund bashing has left the public dumbfounded, prompting warnings from the White House watchdog and several investment houses.


GME shares rose to an all-time high of $483 in U.S. trading on Thursday, then went through 17 circuit breakers before closing down more than 40%. At one point, popular Internet brokerages announced restrictions on trading of "monster stocks" and increased margin requirements. At this time, can not open stock positions of the United States retail investors continue to spread money crazily, more will be "gunfire" at spot silver......


On Friday local time, Game Station maintained its gains after a number of brokerages "limited" resumed retail buying, closing up nearly 70 percent at $327.50 a share.

 

What will the bosses of Wall Street firms do next? The drama will continue. Securities Times reporters interviewed several U.S. stock investors who experienced the retail shock on Wall Street, trying to restore the event from their mouth enough for the history books.


Elite US fund manager: 'I don't think retail investors will win'


Who will win the so-called "victory"?


Perhaps all sides have their own answers to this question, but the "meaning" behind the incident makes us ponder.


At the height of the retail war in the US, one user of the WallStreet Sbets (WSB) forum, where retail investors are focused, posted an open letter to hedge fund Melvin Capital, CNBC, and all WSB forum users who were forced to close their short positions in Game Station.


According to foreign media reports, the letter a retail rebuke to Melvin Capital represented by Wall Street firms, said they were in the 2008 financial crisis for millions of ordinary people made a great deal of suffering, but have not received any punishment, instead of a bailout, is now openly illegal shorting game station such shares, without any lesson from the crisis. The retail investor also accused mainstream media outlets such as CNBC of accepting sponsorship from big companies to speak up for them, demonizing retail hype about individual stocks such as Game Station, and calling such media promoters short-sighted for profit. Retail investors are now taking a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to punish these institutions.


This is bound to lead to another deep debate, but US retail investors may all be triumphant, but each individual individual thinks differently.


Suqi returned to China two years ago after graduating from Columbia University in the US and now works for a large investment firm in Shenzhen. He told reporters that he, too, had used his own money to participate in the "big story" between retail investors and institutions, even if he did not think retail investors would ultimately win.


Be less emotional and more analytical. Suki post company did analysis on the game, think company itself belongs to the normal level, this kind of company is common in the U.S. stock market, the company's shares hovered around $10 for a long time, but after the stock rose to $20, has the investment institutions start shorting shares in companies, but also not out of the normal investment category.


He believes that investor sentiment began to run high as opinion leaders in WallStreet bets continued to advocate and more individual investors joined in. With social media taking off and more investors joining the fray, the stock price is now dominated by investor sentiment.


However, Suki also believes that the deeper reason for this retail-institutional battle is that former President Donald Trump's challenge of rules and defiance of convention during his presidency is starting to have an impact on the capital markets. "Individual investors are getting tired of having big investment houses decide a company's value and fate. "Blocking institutions in a stock can give investors satisfaction, even if it doesn't completely change the ecology of the market."


Mr Suki also believes that the sharp rise in the share prices of large US technology stocks and the consolidation of domestic stock market institutions have been led by institutions. However, the price of these companies can not be explained by traditional valuation models, but more by institutions using their capital advantage to determine the price of the companies. Thus, the retail war is about individual investors "using magic to defeat magic". Not only the Wall Street investment institutions, domestic investment institutions should also reflect on the current only rely on the advantage of capital to determine whether the value of the company can be sustainable in the long term.


"From Hong Kong to Shanghai, I stir-fry a GME in the isolation hotel"


At the Isolation Hotel in Shanghai, Yu Yu, the managing director of a Hong Kong investment firm, is also involved in the GME deal, though not with institutional money, but with personal involvement. Yu Yu told the Securities Times that although there are a lot of hedge funds in Hong Kong, the industry is not so crazy. "This kind of institution is very difficult to participate in, unless the early buy, otherwise the valuation of GME simply cannot pass the risk control of professional institutions, big funds to buy even if the limbo overruns the liquidity is not enough to reduce positions."


Yu Yu paid attention to GME because he usually invested in American stocks, so he sold his position through Interactive Brokers for 350 dollars the day before yesterday, and closed it for 155 dollars yesterday. The day he held the position, he realized a 60% profit. At that time, he predicted that to support GME's stock to continue to rise, it would require constant global news exposure to attract more capital, but this was clearly not sustainable in the long term, and the stock value would have to return to normal in the long term, so he decided to take a small short position.


"I was going to hold it for more than a week and I don't expect it to start falling until Friday, when a lot of options expire on GME and a lot of hedge funds won't need to buy to cover their short positions. But on the evening of the 28th, the fall was quite severe, and the rest of the situation can not be predicted for the time being, but it was even out when the profit was calculated." "He told reporters.


Investment banks such as JPMorgan Chase have recently pointed out that the GME phenomenon is not an isolated one, and that these retail investors are likely to replicate the pattern further, causing more similar stocks to move wildly. Yu agrees that something similar is sure to happen again, with retail groups rapidly growing into a sport in the United States. "As long as the United States continue to drain, similar to build rich sports certainly will continue to occur, such as stocks, COINS, and even designer bags and watches, the flow of assets, such as shoe actually go up in the past year the price of a lot of, coupled with the spread of the Internet platform, such as the retail base of Discord and reddit are young americans inside very fire site, adding the value of the hype.


Reporters found that a rare moment in the history of participants, there are also Chinese retail investors. In a new group of Hong Kong and US stocks, the topic of GME is refresh, and some people even use the simulated trading of US stocks to perform the account show of long and short GME in turn, which also needs to "stimulate". Other communities are also filled with real-life cases of people who made HK $10 million buying GME and woke up with no liquidations, but owed the brokers HK $60 million.


Hong Hao, managing director and head of research at Bank of Communications International, also tweeted that GME's share price jump was not necessarily the result of speculation, and its valuation was already too low. The firm had enough cash on its books to buy the entire company's market value before the jump, while shorting half of its shares. Any earnings surprise is bound to result in a short squeeze. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, called the retail short squeeze a "short-term phenomenon" that "won't last."


Analysts: A sign of liquidity danger in US stocks


Now, the drama is still going on, retail and institutions are not "defeat".


As we all know, the first bear to fall in this event was the famous Citron.


On Jan. 19, Citron said on its social media account that buyers of GME shares were "losers in this poker game," and that the stock would soon return to the $20 level. Reddit users pounded on Citron's comments, including attacks on the family of founder Andrew Left. Retail investors, meanwhile, continue to collectively bid up GME's share price in an effort to knock out short positions in institutions such as Citron. Responding to the retail attack, Andrew Left released a video on January 21 outlaying his five reasons, saying he had "never seen such an angry exchange of views". Finally, because the account number is attacked by too many people, citron finally admits that he is out. Before the opening bell on Friday, Citron, which had unwound most of its short position against GME earlier this week, announced a "big deal," followed by a short video from Citron founder Andrew Left himself announcing the end of his 20-year short career.


Kevin, a new immigrant living in the United States, talked about this historic moment. He said frankly that rather than making money, he called this retail group event as an American movement with "behaviorism" color, which also reflected the deep contradictions of American society.


With the strengthening of Internet communication, in addition to GME and AMC in the US stock market, retail investors in the US also quickly switched to new targets, directly pushing up the prices of silver, Dogecoin and other markets on Thursday. There was also a similar movement in Australia.


In fact, capital market institutions in the United States are absolutely dominant, with retail investors accounting for about 30-40% of the entire market, and the source of funds that retail investors can enter the market is closely related to the epidemic. With unemployment rising, low - and middle-income Americans are receiving generous cash handouts. In April 2020, the government gave out $1,200 per person. In December, it said it would add another $2,000. Biden also came into office with a $1.9 trillion economic rescue bill.


"But for many americans, the government subsidy is a windfall, a lot of people went into the stock market, and the appeal of the two BBS inside many of them are young people, in 2008 when the financial crisis happened pretty young, may also is the middle school students, will therefore experience some family changes, such as the loss of property, household debt parents unemployment and so on," he said, "now the young people grow up, in their 20 s and 30 s entering stock market for the first time, they want to through this expression against Wall Street, under the call of the opinion leader, By acting in solidarity, we express our dissatisfaction with some of the unfair practices in the financial markets."


Whichever is right, from a U.S. stock analyst's perspective, the retail-institutional battle may have a deeper impact on the U.S. stock market.


As retail investors bought huge amounts of call options, the prices of shorted stocks soared, and hedge funds were forced to capitalise and close short positions before the market could return to rationality, U.S. equity analyst Tom said. At the same time, hedge funds have had to start selling other stock holdings, or futures hedging positions, and reduce their overall exposure. Hedge funds are cutting their exposure to equities at the fastest rate in more than six years, according to market data. Fund managers pulled the most money out of the market over the previous four days since October 2014, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs. In addition, under the crisis, a large number of institutional funds frantically buy US debt to avoid risk.


To him, all this is a sign of liquidity danger in U.S. stocks.


In fact, retail anti - killing institutions of drama, in the United States stock market is not the first time. Remember Tesla? Musk is known for hating short sellers, and has nearly lost himself to them several times. Back in 2017, a number of Wall Street titans were betting against Tesla, and Musk was on the brink of bankruptcy, and Tesla's stock is now "flying high." Tesla is considered by some to be a stronghold of retail faith in the United States and one of the biggest losers for short sellers in 2020.


No matter the small retail investors of A-shares or US stocks, they never thought that the change of investor structure in the capital market was A one-way street, but they witnessed the history in the magical 2021.


(Note: All interviewees in this article are pseudonyms)

原作者: 李明珠 吴家明 陈霞昌 来自: 证券时报