雷·戴利奥(Ray Dalio)的清晰分析:比特币最大的风险是成功

Bridgewater的Ray Dalio对媒体对他的比特币观点的描述感到失望，所以他发表了一篇文章，“我对比特币的真正看法”。虽然他认为自己不是这个领域的专家，但他的分析因其简单而优雅。

他把比特币称为“一项了不起的发明”，他说:“比特币就像创造现有的以信用为基础的货币体系一样，当然是一种炼金术。赚的钱很少，或者什么都没有。”

Dalio认为，比特币已经从一种投机想法演变成一种“很可能”会在未来持续存在并“很可能”有一定价值的想法。

由于比特币的供应有限，他认为这种数字资产的未来取决于以下因素:

对比特币的需求

来自其他作为价值储存手段的数字资产的竞争

潜在的比特币停滞

网络风险

隐私风险

政府立法风险

“由于比特币的运行方式是固定的，它将无法进化，我认为会发明出更好的替代货币，并抛弃它。我认为这是一种风险，”Dalio写道。

昨天，一位知识渊博的新加坡高级政府部长强调了数字货币的网络风险，反对一个国家拥有单一的中央银行数字货币(CBDC)。戴利奥也表达了类似的观点。Dalio写道:“我认为，有一天，我们很有可能会看到主要由数字构成的金融系统比现在所认识到的更容易受到破坏和/或网络勒索的攻击。”

谈到政府的干预，他说，“我怀疑比特币最大的风险是成功，因为如果它成功了，政府将试图扼杀它，他们有很大的力量来取得成功。”

他要求Bridgewater的团队分析长期供应情况，包括10% - 50%的私人黄金持有转向比特币的可能性。他的结论是:“比特币看起来就像一个长期期权，在一个高度未知的未来，我可以投入一定量的钱，我不介意损失大约80%。”

Dalio没有提到的一个领域是比特币消耗这么多能源的道德问题，尽管比特币爱好者试图声称它是可再生的。

Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio is frustrated by the media’s soundbite portrayal of his views about Bitcoin, so he published an article, “What I really think of Bitcoin“. While he considers himself a non-expert in this area, his analysis is elegant in its simplicity. 

He refers to Bitcoin as “one hell of an invention”, which he says “like creating the existing credit-based monetary system, is of course a type of alchemy—i.e., making money out of little or nothing.”

Dalio believes Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative idea to one that will “probably” stick around and “probably” have some value in the future.

Because Bitcoin’s supply is limited, he believes the digital asset’s future is dependent on the following factors:

• demand for Bitcoin
• competition from other digital assets acting as a store of value
• potential Bitcoin stagnation
• cyber risks
• privacy risks
• risk of government legislation

“Since the way Bitcoin works is fixed, it won’t be able to evolve and I presume that a better alternative will be invented and pass it by. I see that as a risk,” wrote Dalio.

Yesterday a knowledgeable Senior Government Minister from Singapore highlighted the cyber risks of digital currencies, arguing against a country having a single central bank digital currency (CBDC). Dalio echoes a similar sentiment. “I think that there is a good chance that someday we will see the financial system, which consists mostly of digits, be shown to be more vulnerable to disruption and/or to cyber blackmail than is now recognized,” wrote Dalio.

When it comes to government interference, he says, “I suspect that Bitcoin’s biggest risk is being successful, because if it’s successful, the government will try to kill it and they have a lot of power to succeed.”

He asked his Bridgewater team to analyze the long term supply scenarios, including the probability of 10% – 50% of private gold holdings switching to Bitcoin. His conclusion is: “Bitcoin looks like a long-duration option on a highly unknown future that I could put an amount of money in that I wouldn’t mind losing about 80% of.”

One area Dalio didn’t mention is the ethical issues of Bitcoin consuming so much energy, although the Bitcoin crowd tries to claim it’s all renewable.