找回密码
 立即注册
首页 区块链新闻 查看内容
  • QQ空间

随着华为购买支付许可证,政府可能考虑拆分支付宝和微信支付

2021-2-16 13:35

 

上周,华为收购了拥有支付牌照的迅联智付。华为是数字人民币开发的创始合作伙伴之一,为中国央行数字货币(CBDC)提供云基础设施。目前,中国当局正试图控制支付宝(AliPay)和微信支付(微信Pay)在移动支付领域的双头垄断。最近的立法草案显示,当局可能考虑拆分支付宝和微信支付。(我们附上一份用谷歌翻译自动翻译的立法草案副本)。


迄今为止,华为显然没有刻意寻求获得支付许可证。那么是什么改变了?首先,eCNY或数字人民币即将推出。其次,如果支付宝被拆分,这将创造新的机会。


四个月前,这家电信基础设施公司宣布,其华为40系列智能手机将支持中国央行数字货币(CBDC)。它提供了数字人民币硬件钱包和硬件级安全保障。


根据迅联智付报告,华为在中国拥有3亿手机用户,因此这是其支付市场的潜力。


然而,在没有许可证的情况下,华为的钱包交易必须通过银行进行。与CBDC工作无关,该公司有一个现有的钱包应用程序。


在与支付宝(AliPay)和微信支付(微信Pay)在移动支付领域的垄断竞争中,腾讯可能也会遇到困难。除非它认为这种情况即将结束。


时机的选择可能并非偶然。1月21日,有关拆分的法规草案公布。华为获得银行牌照的报道于2月7日发布。

 

支付宝事件回顾


去年,支付宝母公司蚂蚁集团(Ant Group)在最后一刻取消了规模庞大的IPO。在IPO之前,已经有迹象表明,政府对其市场主导地位的担忧正在升温。


最近,蚂蚁金服被要求将母公司转变为一家金融控股公司,并满足随之而来的所有资本要求。


此外,三周前,中国人民银行公布了非银行支付机构立法草案,供评议。


它规定,如果一个支付机构拥有一半以上的市场份额,两个支付机构拥有三分之二以上的市场份额,三个支付机构拥有四分之三以上的市场份额,则为主导地位。目前,支付宝的市场份额为55%,加上微信支付,大约有90%的市场份额。但拟议的规则表明,它仍将征求反垄断监管机构的意见,以确认其主导地位。

 

支付宝将如何分拆?


草案规定:“中国人民银行可以向国务院反垄断执法机构提出,要求其停止滥用市场主导地位、停止集中管理以及按照支付业务类型将非银行支付机构分离等措施。”


最后一点似乎表明,它将打破基于类型的支付业务。


因为一家公司在执行上的成功而惩罚它似乎是一种耻辱,特别是如果竞争对手是其他大型公司而不是强大的创新者。


从贷款、保险到财富管理,蚂蚁金服的金融服务涉及方方面面。当局可能会迫使这些产品从支付宝剥离出来。


但法律措辞明确指的是支付业务,这就提出了一个问题:它将如何拆分支付宝?一个明显的办法是防止商业支付和零售支付混在一起。虽然人们认为支付宝是一款零售支付应用,但它以中小企业为目标,延续了阿里巴巴的传统。


人们可以将在线支付与离线支付区分开来,尽管这可能会给消费者带来不便。支付应用可能会被分割成不同的区域,这似乎也不太方便。但是,一个面向用户的应用程序可能包含多个支付运营商。但是,这可能大大增加管理费用,最终将转嫁给最终用户。


此外,商户收购业务也可以从支付业务中剥离出来。最后一点很有意思,因为在早期,央行的数字货币可能会在这方面展开竞争,因为它计划向零售商收取更低的费用,甚至可能不收取任何费用。因此,如果客户用数字人民币支付,商户可能倾向于提供折扣。零售商收取的销售点费用通常是支付应用的主要收入来源。


虽然每个国家都有自己独特的支付格局,但世界各地的政府都在试图解决如何应对大型科技公司进入支付领域并占据主导地位的问题。人们对Facebook的Diem(原名天秤座)的反应只是一个例子。


任何央行数字货币的理由之一,都是确保政府基础设施保留对支付的控制权,而不是把控制权让给私营企业。

 

Last week Huawei bought Xunlian Zhipay, which owns a payments license. Huawei was one of the founding partners in the development of the digital yuan, providing the cloud infrastructure for China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC). The move comes as Chinese authorities are trying to reign in the duopoly of AliPay and WeChat Pay in mobile payments. Recent draft legislation shows authorities could consider breaking up both AliPay and WeChat Pay. (We attach a copy of the draft legislation automatically translated using Google Translate).

To date, Huawei has apparently intentionally not sought to acquire a payments license. So what’s changed? Firstly, the eCNY or digital yuan is getting closer to launch. And secondly, if AliPay is broken up, this will create new opportunities.

Four months ago, the telecoms infrastructure company announced that its HuaweiMate 40 series of smartphones would support China’s central bank digital currency (CBDC). It provides a digital renminbi hardware wallet and hardware-level security. 

According to the Xunlian Zhipay report, Huawei has a mobile phone userbase of 300 million in China and hence that is its market potential for payments.

However, without a license, Huawei’s wallet transactions have to be funneled via a bank. Unrelated to the CBDC work, the company has an existing wallet app.

It also might struggle to compete against the AliPay and WeChat Pay stranglehold on mobile payments. Unless it believes that’s about to end.

The timing may be no accident. Draft regulations that talk about a break up were published on January 21. Reports of Huawei’s banking license acquisition came out on February 7.

The AliPay context

Last year, AliPay parent Ant Group pulled its giant IPO at the last minute. Prior to the IPO, there were already signs of bubbling Government concern about its market dominance.

More recently, Ant was told to turn the parent into a financial holding company, with all the capital requirements that comes with.

On top of that, three weeks ago, the People’s Bank of China published draft legislation for non-bank payments institutions for commentary. 

It stipulates that there’s a dominant position if one payments institution has more than half of the market, two have more than two thirds, and three have more than three quarters. Currently, AliPay’s market share is 55% and together with WeChat Pay, they have something like a 90% market share. But the proposed rule states it would still consult the antitrust regulator to confirm the dominant position.

How might AliPay be broken up?

The draft legislation states, “the People’s Bank of China may propose to the State Council’s anti-monopoly law enforcement agency to stop measures such as abuse of market dominance, cessation of centralization, and separation of non-bank payment institutions according to the type of payment business.”

That last point seems to say it would break up the payment business based on type.

It seems a shame to punish a company for its success in execution, particularly if the competition will be from other massive companies as opposed to strong innovators.

Ant has numerous aspects to its financial services from loans and insurance to wealth management. Potentially the authorities might force these offerings to be split from AliPay. 

But the legal wording refers explicitly to the payments business, which raises the question of how it might split AliPay? An obvious one is to prevent the mixing of business and retail payments. While the perception is of AliPay as a retail payment app, it targets SMEs in line with its Alibaba heritage.

One could separate online versus offline payments, although that could be inconvenient for consumers. Payments apps could be split into regions, which again seems inconvenient. But one could have a single user-facing app with multiple payment operators under the hood. However, that may radically increase overheads, which ultimately will be passed on to end-users.

And the merchant acquiring business could be split from the payments side. That last point is an interesting one, because in the early days, the central bank’s digital currency may compete here since it plans to charge retailers less or possibly nothing. Hence merchants might be inclined to offer discounts if a customer pays with the digital renminbi. Point of sale charges to the retailer is usually a major source of income for the payments apps.

While every country has a unique payments landscape, governments worldwide are trying to figure out how to deal with big tech entrance into payments and their dominance. Reaction to Facebook’s Diem (formerly Libra) is just one example.

And one of the rationales for any central bank digital currency is to ensure that a government infrastructure retains control over payments as opposed to ceding that to private firms.

 

来自: Ledger Insights