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金价跌穿1700美元关口!再创9月收盘新低,这一指标“伤口撒盐”

2021-3-6 18:18

黄金期货价格周五收盘再度下跌,失守每盎司1700美元关口,在本周的整体交易中也连续第三个星期下跌。导致金价承压的主要原因是,美国劳工部公布的报告显示2月份的非农就业人数增长超出预期,推动美元汇率触及三个多月以来的最高水平,且10年期美国国债收益率短暂突破1.6%。

纽约商品交易所4月份交割的黄金期货价格下跌2.20美元,报收于每盎司1698.50美元,跌幅为0.1%,此前该合约在周四的交易中也收盘下跌0.9%,按主力合约计算创下了自6月5日以来的最低收盘价。据财经信息供应商FactSet提供的数据显示,在本周的整体交易中,黄金期货价格累计下跌了1.8%。

用于追踪美元兑六种国际主要货币汇率变动的洲际交易所(ICE)美元指数周五触及92.192的高点,这是自去年11月左右以来的最高水平。通常情况下,美元汇率上涨会促使黄金和原油等以美元计价的大宗商品期货的价格下跌,原因是持有其他货币的投资者买入这些商品的成本将会变高。与此同时,由于黄金跟其他大宗商品一样都是非付息资产,因此国债收益率的上升对于金价来说是个负面因素。

黄金策略基金QGLDX的联合投资组合经理贾森·泰德(Jason Ted)表示,金价一直都受到“利率持续上升的压力,这使得黄金相对于债券而言不再是一种有吸引力的价值储存手段”。他指出,虽然本周美联储提到了通胀,但“与预期通胀的正面压力相比,利率压力可能是一个更大、更近的短期因素”。泰德表示,如果利率在美国正面经济数据的推动下继续上行,那么金价可能会继续面临一些抛售压力,但“如果收益率走势稍有回落,那么这种压力可能就会有所减弱”。

富拓外汇(FXTM)的资深研究分析师卢克曼·奥图努加(Lukman Otunuga)表示:“市场对经济增长导致通胀上升并促使美联储加息的前景愈发紧张不安。鉴于黄金的零收益率特性,美国2月份井喷的就业报告不是个好兆头,可能会造成伤口上撒盐的影响。”他指出:“美国国债收益率已经在上升,超过了2月26日的峰值,这对贵金属来说是个坏消息。”

美国劳工部在周五早些时候公布报告称,2月份美国新增非农就业人数为37.9万人,创下了四个月以来的最大增幅,这可能会削弱人们对黄金的需求,因为美国经济似乎正在从新冠肺炎疫情中复苏。此前,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)周四表示,他担心债券市场的无序波动,但暗示这尚未对金融状况产生实质性影响,这让一些市场参与者感到失望,他们原本希望鲍威尔就美联储可能采取的抑制收益率上升的策略提供更多见解。

ActivTrades首席分析师卡洛·阿尔贝托·德卡萨(Carlo Alberto De Casa)在一份研究报告中写道:“投资者的投资组合出现了温和的转变,债券受到青睐,而投资者对黄金的兴趣暂时正在减少,尽管鲍威尔发表了‘鸽派’的讲话。”他还补充道:“金价的技术面仍然看跌,到目前为止还没有迹象显示金价即将反弹。多头的下一个上行目标是,让4月期货价格报收于本周高点1757.40美元的坚实阻力位上方。”

Gold futures closed down again on Friday, falling below the $1,700 an ounce mark for the third straight week of declines in overall trading. The bulk of the pressure on gold came after a report from the US Labor Department showing a larger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls in February pushed the dollar to its highest level in more than three months and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly above 1.6 per cent.

 

Gold for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $2.20, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,698.50 an ounce, after the contract also closed down 0.9% on Thursday, its lowest close since June 5 on a mainstay basis. In overall trading this week, gold futures are down 1.8%, according to FactSet.


The ICE dollar index, which tracks the greenback's movements against six major international currencies, hit a high of 92.192 on Friday, its highest level since around November. Typically, a rising dollar pushes down the price of dollar-denominated commodity futures, such as gold and oil, because they become more expensive for investors holding other currencies. At the same time, since gold, like other commodities, is a non-interest-paying asset, rising Treasury yields are a negative for gold prices.


Jason Ted, co-portfolio manager of the gold strategy fund QGLDX, said gold had been under "sustained pressure from rising interest rates, which made gold less of an attractive store of value relative to bonds". He noted that while inflation was mentioned by the Fed this week, "interest rate pressures are likely to be a bigger and more recent near-term factor than the positive pressures on expected inflation". Mr Tedder said gold could continue to face some selling pressure if interest rates continued to rise on the back of positive US economic data, but "if yields move back a little bit, then that pressure could subside a bit".


Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said: "Markets are getting more jittery about the prospect of economic growth leading to higher inflation and prompting the Fed to raise rates. Given gold's zero-yield nature, the blowout jobs report in the US in February does not bode well and could add salt to the wound." "US Treasury yields are already rising, above the February 26 peak, which is bad news for precious metals," he notes.


Earlier Friday, the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 379,000 jobs in February, the biggest gain in four months, which could dent demand for gold as the U.S. economy appears to be recovering from the COVID-19 outbreak. Previously, the fed chairman Jerome Powell (Jerome Powell) said on Thursday that he is worried that the bond market's disorderly movements, but hinted that it has not been substantial influence on financial conditions, some market participants were disappointed that they had hoped to Powell is the federal reserve may take higher yields of strategy to provide more insights.


 

"There has been a modest shift in investors' portfolios, with bonds in favour while interest in gold is waning for the time being, despite Mr Powell's 'dovish' comments," Carlo Alberto De Casa, chief analyst at Activtrades, wrote in a research note. He added: "The technical picture for gold remains bearish and so far there are no signs of an imminent rebound. The bulls' next upside target is for April futures to close above this week's high of $1,757.40 at solid resistance."

来自: 腾讯美股