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欧洲央行维持利率不变,继续“加快步伐”购买债券

2021-6-11 10:44


这张照片拍摄于2021年6月10日,显示了在德国法兰克福欧洲央行总部举行的欧洲央行理事会会议后的新闻发布会的直播。欧洲央行周四表示,将维持欧元区关键利率不变,并将在未来一个季度继续根据大规模流行病紧急购买计划(PEPP)购买债券,其购买速度将"明显高于"今年头几个月。(新华社/吕洋)


法兰克福,6月10日(新华社)——欧洲央行(ECB)周四表示,它将维持欧元区基准利率不变,并将继续购买债券在其流行紧急购买计划(PEPP)“显著提高速度”在未来的季度的第一个月。


欧洲央行在一份声明中表示,欧元区主要利率将保持在历史低位,基本利率、边际贷款利率和存款利率将分别维持在0.0%、0.25%和- 0.50%不变。


央行还表示,“管理委员会预计在接下来的季度净买入PEPP下继续进行更高的速度比在今年头几个月,”呼应的决定,3月债券购买将会缓解担忧债券收益率上升。


PEPP于去年3月首次推出,以缓解大流行的影响,此后两次扩大,总金额为1.85万亿欧元(2.25万亿美元),至少将持续到2022年3月底。


欧洲央行表示,将"根据市场情况灵活地"购买,以防止"融资条件趋紧"。


预期向上修正


欧洲央行行长拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示,欧洲央行管理委员会“对经济前景的看法比三个月前更加乐观”,指出了随着欧洲社会重新开放和疫苗接种运动取得重大进展,该地区经济的积极一面。


"随着进一步遏制措施的解除,我们预计今年下半年经济活动将加速,"拉加德周四对记者表示,"消费支出的回升、强劲的全球需求以及宽松的财政和货币政策将为经济复苏提供关键支持。"


最近的数据显示,服务业活动出现了反弹,该行业约占该地区总体经济活动的60%。拉加德指出,制造业持续复苏,尽管供应方面的瓶颈可能在短期内造成一些阻力。


她补充说,持续的大流行,包括病毒突变的传播及其对经济和金融状况的影响,继续是下行风险的来源。


总体而言,在周四更新的预测中,欧洲央行工作人员预计,2021年欧元区实际GDP年增长率为4.6%,2022年为4.7%,2023年为2.1%。与三个月前相比,对2021年和2020年的预测都有所上调。


与此同时,欧元区整体通胀率一直在飙升。年率通胀料从3月的1.3%升至5月的2.0%,为近三年来最高,超过欧洲央行"接近但低于2% "的长期价格稳定目标。


拉加德指出,近期油价飙升“主要是由于基数效应、暂时性因素和能源价格上涨”。她预计整体通胀将在今年下半年进一步上升,然后随着暂时因素的消失而下降。


拉加德补充称:“总体通胀预期仍将低于我们的预期水平。”


考虑到最新数据,欧洲央行工作人员目前预计,2021年欧元区年通胀率将为1.9%,2022年为1.5%,2023年为1.4%。对2021年和2022年的预测已经上调,对2023年的预测保持不变。


“稳定的手”刺激


拉加德还对记者表示,有关购买债券的决定存在"一些争论",但最终政策制定者都支持她所称的"稳健举措"。


欧洲央行行长强调,在购买力平价下的债券购买将根据市场情况灵活进行,“其中显然包括季节性因素”。


在一份宏观经济分析报告中,拉加德表示,自3月会议以来,企业和家庭的融资条件大体保持稳定,但市场利率进一步上升。


拉加德指出:“尽管部分反映了经济前景的改善,但市场利率的持续上升可能转化为与整个经济相关的更广泛融资环境的紧缩。”


当被问及法国人民党退出时,拉加德重申,目前讨论这些长期问题“为时过早、不成熟和没有必要”,而这些问题还没有被管理委员会讨论过。

总部位于柏林的德国经济研究所(German Institute for Economic Research)所长马塞尔·弗拉茨舍(Marcel Fratzscher)在网上评论中写道:“欧洲央行必须在更长时间内保持扩张。”Fratzscher说,为了摆脱疫情并保持全球竞争力,特别是欧洲企业将需要长期有利的融资条件,以便进行必要的投资。


Fratzscher指出,对通胀过高的担忧是"非常德国的现象",且"毫无根据",并补充称,未来几年的通胀预期将远低于欧洲央行的物价稳定目标。


“长期过高的通胀只有在经济过热时才会出现。欧洲和德国目前离实现这一目标还有很长的路要走。

Photo taken on June 10, 2021 shows the live streaming of a press conference following the European Central Bank (ECB)'s governing council meeting held at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany. The ECB said on Thursday that it will keep the euro area key interest rates unchanged and will continue buying bonds under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at a "significantly higher pace" over the coming quarter than in the first months of this year. (Xinhua/Lu Yang)

FRANKFURT, June 10 (Xinhua) -- The European Central Bank (ECB) said on Thursday that it will keep the euro area key interest rates unchanged and will continue buying bonds under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at a "significantly higher pace" over the coming quarter than in the first months of this year.

Eurozone key interest rates will remain at record low levels, with the base interest rate, marginal lending rate and deposit rate unchanged at 0.00 percent, 0.25 percent and minus 0.50 percent, respectively, the ECB said in a statement.

The central bank also said that "the Governing Council expects net purchases under the PEPP over the coming quarter to continue to be conducted at a significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year," echoing the decision in March that bond buying will pick up pace to ease worries over rising bond yields.

The PEPP, first rolled out in March last year to cushion the impact from the pandemic and expanded twice thereafter, has a total envelope of 1.85 trillion euros (2.25 trillion U.S. dollars) and is set to run until at least the end of March 2022.

The ECB said it will purchase "flexibly according to market conditions" and with a view to preventing "a tightening of financing conditions."

FORECASTS REVISED UP

ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the Governing Council has been "more optimistic about the economic outlook than three months ago," pointing to the bright side of the region's economy as the society is reopening and the vaccination campaigns are making significant progress.

"We expect economic activity to accelerate in the second half of this year as further containment measures are lifted," Lagarde told journalists on Thursday, adding "A pick-up in consumer spending, strong global demand and accommodative fiscal and monetary policies will lend crucial support to the recovery."

Recent data signal a bounce-back in the services activity, which accounted for about 60 percent of the area's total economic activity. The manufacturing sector continues to recover, although supply-side bottlenecks could pose some headwinds in the near term, Lagarde noted.

The ongoing pandemic, including the spread of virus mutations, and its implications for economic and financial conditions, continue to be sources of downside risk, she added.

Overall, in an updated forecast on Thursday, the ECB staff foresee the euro area annual real GDP growth at 4.6 percent in 2021, 4.7 percent in 2022 and 2.1 percent in 2023. Projections for both 2021 and 2020 were revised up from three months ago.

Meanwhile, euro area headline inflation has been surging. Annual inflation is expected to increase from 1.3 percent in March to 2.0 percent in May, the highest in nearly three years, overshooting the ECB's long-standing price stability target of "close to, but below, 2 percent."

Lagarde noted that the recent surge was "largely on account of base effects, transitory factors and an increase in energy prices." She expected the headline inflation to rise further in the second half of the year before declining as temporary factors fade out.

"Headline inflation is expected to remain below our aim over the projection horizon," Lagarde added.

Taking into account the latest data, the ECB staff now expect euro area annual inflation to stand at 1.9 percent in 2021, 1.5 percent in 2022 and 1.4 percent in 2023. The outlook has been revised up for 2021 and 2022 and is unchanged for 2023.

"STEADY HAND" ON STIMULUS

Lagarde also told journalists that there was "some debate" about the bond purchase decision but in the end policymakers all came to support the policy approach which she described as "steady hand."

The ECB president stressed that bond purchases under the PEPP will be conducted flexibly according to market conditions, "which clearly include seasonality."

In a macro-economic analysis, Lagarde said financing conditions for firms and households have remained broadly stable since the March meeting, but market interest rates have increased further.

"While partly reflecting improved economic prospects, a sustained rise in market rates could translate into a tightening of wider financing conditions that are relevant for the entire economy," noted Lagarde.

When asked about the exit of the PEPP, Lagarde reiterated that at this stage it is "too early, premature and unnecessary" to discuss those longer-term issues and these issues had not been discussed by the Governing Council.

"The ECB must remain expansive for longer," Marcel Fratzscher, head of the Berlin-based German Institute for Economic Research, wrote in an online comment. To emerge from the pandemic and stay competitive globally, European companies in particular will need favorable financing conditions for a long time in order to make necessary investments, Fratzscher said.

Fratzscher noted that the fear of too high inflation is "a very German phenomenon" and "unfounded," adding that inflation expectations for the coming years will be well below the ECB's price stability target.

"Inflation that is permanently too high would only arise if the economy overheats. Europe and Germany are currently a long way from that," Fratzscher said.


 

来自: xinhua